Fermanagh – Foster wins
In the interim all the rumours from the jungle drums while the count continues and later on the actual results. The 2005 results are below the fold for information purposes. UPDATE First count results below Foster in front. SF call recount. Recount complete SF vote increases by 1.UNCONFIRMED The DUP’s Arlene Foster has won It was the unionist co-operation message wot done it.
2008 by-election 1st count (SF call recount)
Debbie Coyle (SF) 1815 1816 (28.8% +0.3%)
Rosemary Flanaghan (SDLP) 739 (11.7% -6.5%)
Arlene Foster (DUP) 1925 (30.6% +2.4%)
Basil Johnston (UUP) 1436 (22.8% + 2.3%)
Dr Kumar Kamble (All) 231 (3.6%)
Karen McHugh (Ind) 158 (2.5%)
Combined Unionist Vote 53.4% +4.7%
Combined Nationalist Vote 43.0% -3.7% 2005 local government election Enniskillen DEA
Votes by Party:
SF: 2,486 (28.5%), 2 seats
DUP: 2,454 (28.2%), 2 seats
UUP: 1,785 (20.5%), 1 seat
SDLP: 1,584 (18.2%), 2 seats
Soc Party: 406 (4.7%)
It seems a chunk of SDLP voters sat at home.
‘Will this result weaken SF’s position in terms of the Executive boycott?’
In theory yes -in practice no . They’ll continue to hold out for definite date for devolution of p & j. imo .
Is 50% turnout ‘normal’ for this area in a council election . Looks like many nationalists did’nt bother their rear ends . Does anybody know which areas voted ‘least’ ?
No question that Arlene Foster did the business for the DUP .
Asking for a recount and getting one extra vote however makes the SF face look as if it’s got even more egg on it than it needed .
Meanwhile back in the real world of Wall St will Morgan Stanley sink today and will Goldman Sachs be bought out . ?
And spare a thought for a Mr Greenberg the holder of some 11% of AIH shares who has seen his stock drop in value from 6.5 Billion dollars to a mere 693 million . At 83 he’s trying to work a plan to restore his fortunes
Some people don’t never give up
Arlene has the seat
:):):)
SM
“knock a few points off as moderate SDLP voters vote Alliance – I got the sense canvassing that our vote was going to be a bit greener than usual,”
A quick analysis I did a few weeks ago into the regular ‘centre’ voters in the area had them at about 70% nationalist (in terms of later transfers). Granted the amount of data was limited to play with.
Michelle Gildernew? Bothered?
It need kill you no more, Mike.
After Stage 3:
Foster 3165
Coyle 2383
What about count two for us anoraks Sammy?
On Tuesday I predicted the following result on TheBelfastStoop.com:
Foster (DUP) 38%
Coyle (SF) 35%
Flanagan (SDLP) 11%
Johnson (UUP) 10%
Alliance 4%
McHugh (Ind.) 2%
I got the SDLP, Alliance and Independent results pretty spot on but missed everything else, apart from Arlene winning the seat.
It was not a good result at all by the SDLP, there’s no way to spin it good. Its clear SDLP voters didn’t turn out. We had a decent candidate and had done a lot of door knocking but this election was always going to be between the DUP and Sinn Fein and we were squeezed very hard.
UUP cost electorate in Fermanagh £20k.
How much did the DUP cost Banbridge wile melee?
Both parties should reimburse the council.
Conquistador
Let’s just hope both have learned the necessary lesson
What about count two for us anoraks Sammy?
I’ll give you it when I get it myself!
for the record im in favour of co-option…
Yes fair_deal I concur. No point in either unionist party using that one.
It’s like councillors being minister, both parties do it, both parties are wrong to do it, both parties attack each other for it, both parties look silly to attack oneanother.
Although to be fair the UUP did stick with their candidate in Dromore. (although they didn’t really consider such things as tactics and won largely by fluke)
For the record I’m against unnecessary government waste
What now for Durkan ?
After all the bluster the last few weeks ,looks like the Nationalist community is putting its weight in behind the Shinners ,is the SDLP now party in terminal decline ?
Is it possible to estimate the % Nationalsit/Unionist turnout. It is presumably some time since the Nationaalist share of the vote actually declined by this amount in any election – boundary changes excepted.
Posssibly larger Unionist turnout this time round than prviously.
could paisley’s departure actually make the DUP more attractive to unionist voters? I know many people in the unioist community were sick of paisley’s NO NO NO policy. However, with Robinson at the helm they are a much more attractive party to moderate unionists whilst still attracting grass roots DUP voters.
Congratulations to Arlene Foster, shame on the UUP, costing the enniskillen rate payer un-necessary money. A simple co-option would have produced the same result.
I wonder if the more-green rhetoric from the SDLP recently has put off their more moderate wing who are now voting alliance, not at all, or even unionist.
Oh yes – glad the extremists ended up in last place. Sorry for the Kumar at number five.
Total nationalist vote was 2713, SF vote on second count was 2327, so a difference of 386. Combined UUP and Alliance vote was 1667 with a difference of 27. Does anyone at the count know what proportion of Alliance votes didn’t transfer?
will be interesting to read the post mortem from a SF position. momemtum lost at a crucial stage?
Well it’s official unionists really are dumb.
OK I give in what is an anorak in slugger speak?
And do we have any resident anoraks?
Is membership open?
Congratulations to Arlene Foster, shame on the UUP, costing the enniskillen rate payer un-necessary money. A simple co-option would have produced the same result.
Posted by DUP supporter on Sep 18, 2008 @ 02:17 PM
Not exactly. Different candidate for a start. As mentioned above, same culd be said of the DUP in banbridge.
Although here with the high unionist % Unionism (believe it or not this is more than the DUP) has a PR victory
is your surname O’Rak?
Don’t you all just love by election results you can just pore over…keep it going I love the analysis.
“OK I give in what is an anorak in slugger speak?”
See Mike C’s post Ann – he about sums it up…. now what’s the latest poll from New Mexico….as Sammy would put it Uber-Geek…
DK
I really would like to see any evidence you have of SDLP voters switching to Alliance – it seems like nothing more than Alliance wishful thinkung to me.
I think the main effects of Mark Durkan’s recent ramblings will be either to confuse SDLP voters and send them to the garden centre to sit on their hands or to continue the pattern of the last ten years and shift them to Sinn Féin.
I’ve a more depressing alternative theory on the drop in the nationalist vote.
SDLP voters did not stay at home but many switched to SF as the nationalist party that might win/an acceptable party now the violence is over. However, hardline republican SF voters stayed at home and abstained because of dissillusionment with SF’s rush to respectability, embracing of constitutional politics etc. In other words, potential supporters of the dissidents stayed at home.
Please God let it be not so but I fear that it might.
Dublin Voter,
No, the SF vote remained stable (in terms of share) and decreased by over a third (total). Likewise with the AP vote compared to various Independent types last time.
This is to do with a stay-at-home SDLP vote.
I really think the SDLP is struggling for a raison-d’être. Toying with FF to no avail looked both desperate and weak. There is no point in being the party of civil rights in an era where they are long secured.
There is a lesson of caution for the UUP there too.
Blatant Alliance mis-spin, but I like it lol
THe fall in the nationalst vote is a bit more than the 3.7% that FD quotes. IIRC three quarters if not more of the Socialist party vote tranferred to nationalists on elimination. Thus the fall in nationalist vote a worrying 6 and a bit percent.
A good election for Sinn Féin.
The SF vote share is up – again. Across Ireland Sinn Féin tends to increase its vote share over time and this election is no exception. Sinn Féin take a long term view of elections, building up vote share for the future.
When the fact that the DUP used a High Profile Economy Minister as their candidate, against Sinn Féin’s relatively unknown candidate, Sinn Féin’s performance was remarkable.
Clearly Sinn Féin is the party of choice among the nationalist electorate. Sinn Féin’s share among the nationalist electorate is experiencing exponential growth.
The breakaway “republican” got a derisory vote indicating that all of the republican people of Eniskillen are positive about the work Sinn Féin is doing for them.
The SDLP is heading down the tubes.
No interest whatsoever in the outcome, but in these credit crunch times, isn’t it about time that job creation was spread a little more fairly in NI politics? How many elected reps are feeding from several troughs at once: Local Councillor/MLA/Minister/MP?
Arlene is one, among many. I’m sure all will have her full attention.
Interesting to see the decline in the nationalist share. Not sure I have ever sign such a pro-union swing in recent years, though ’twas only a council by-election and therefore understandably if some didn’t think it the most important thing in the world.
The result, though, illustrates that the UUP are continuing to flatline at 2005/07 levels of support and is still failing to provide a convincing reason for the electorate to support it. The only thing they can do is the merger with the Conservatives, though it remains to be seen whether the leadership grasps this reality as yet.
Dublin voter,
… hardline republican SF voters stayed at home and abstained
Why would they not have voted for Karen McHugh?
[PS my 'validation word' is 'family' - how wierd is that?]
Why would they not have voted for Karen McHugh? – Horseman
Because abstention is a traditional tactic of hardline republicans?
The breakaway “republican” got a derisory vote indicating that all of the republican people of Eniskillen are positive about the work Sinn Féin is doing for them. – Dublinsfsupporter
I actually hope you are right. I really do.
Anyone tell me who was the socialist candidate the last time? And did they stand for the Socialist Party or as an independent socialist?
Finally, am I right in saying that support for dissidents might be stronger in some rural areas of Fermanagh and weaker in Enniskillen? In which case, my theory on hardline SFers staying at home might be less valid.
“who was the socialist candidate the last time?”
Paul Dale from the Socialist Party. Prior to 2001 Davy Kettyles had been a councillor here as a Progressive Socialist.
Nic Whyte knows more than Sammy Morse
For those asking earlier about SF’s response. Their statement includes this classic
“This was always safe unionist seat”
http://www.sinnfein.ie/news/detail/35309
Good find Fair Deal.
“This was always a safe Unionist seat”
Just is not true.
Posssibly larger Unionist turnout this time round than prviously.
No, as the number of votes cast for Unionist candidates was well down on last time and was probably poor by any objective standard. the differential turnout undoubtedly favoured Unionist candidates though.
And do we have any resident anoraks?
Oh, one or two.
now what’s the latest poll from New Mexico
Obama starting to march out into a lead again, Dewi. We can indeed believe in change.
I really would like to see any evidence you have of SDLP voters switching to Alliance
Because in the last two by-elections SDLP vote was down by more than you could account for than just the SF vote being up?
Because I’m out on the doorsteps regularly and I also know who is joining the Alliance Party and where they’re joining it from?
SDLP voters did not stay at home but many switched to SF as the nationalist party that might win/an acceptable party now the violence is over. However, hardline republican SF voters stayed at home and abstained because of dissillusionment with SF’s rush to respectability, embracing of constitutional politics etc. In other words, potential supporters of the dissidents stayed at home.
Got it in one, Dublin Voter, but remember there’s a long gap from being a potential dissident voter to an actual one. The fact that a high proportion of dissidents are criminals, British agents or halfway to their graves remains an obstacle as does the fact that most dissident candidates look like they’ve just escaped from Hollywell. Karen McHugh was pretty good as dissident candidates go, but then again she and her Daddy are not really dissident republicans.
It might have been a different story in Erne East, but I see little evidence of a growing dissident republican vote. Violence, that’s a different story.
The SF vote share is up – again. Across Ireland Sinn Féin tends to increase its vote share over time and this election is no exception. Sinn Féin take a long term view of elections, building up vote share for the future.
Have you considered joining the Iraqi Information Ministry?
Prior to 2001 Davy Kettyles had been a councillor here as a Progressive Socialist.
Prior to the Workers’ Party armed robbery scandal of 1992, Davy Kettyles had been a Workers’ Party councillor.
“This was always safe unionist seat”
Funny, last weekend in Enniskillen, I was told by one of their activists that the “Unionists have no chance in a by-election”.
Dewi
Can’t claim credit got a text from a mate
‘A good election for Sinn Féin.’
I couldn’t agree more. They lost.
“OK I give in what is an anorak in slugger speak?”
Ann – #17 above – I think you get the drift….
Sammy – agree on US – looks like the bounce is over at least – still concerned at Wilder effect but I think Obama can bring it home with a cool head.
A good election for Sinn Féin.
?
The DUP took the lead within the unionist vote and congratulations to them; however they would have needed to considering the candidate. They, as expected, ran with the usual propaganda of ‘vote for us or them shinners will get in’. They gave it a big push then yesterday with MLA’s and Executive Ministers from all over the country down; smacked of worry but ah well it was fun watching their faces last night. Just on a side note, I wonder how all them MLA’s were representing their Constituents that day. And also, is canvassing part of a Ministers expected duty?
We took a very reasonable vote share considering the circumstances. Running a high profile Minister against a local farmer was not a easy task. We increased our overall vote, and like we always expected 80% of our voters transferred. We didn’t need to run to the papers with headlines grabbing statements.
The SDLP are just a mess, they ran a very low key campaign. There appeared to be very little canvassing on their part. I saw one team of them, Durkan and two locals about a week ago and that was it.
The shinner vote in my opinion is the most interesting. If anything this election has exposed the dire state the Fermanagh SF are in. Although they ran a big campaign, they ultimately failed to get out the big vote which they aimed for. It was also interesting to see most SF polling agents and also those outside at the gates were all from Belfast SF. Indicators that Fermanagh SF grass roots aren’t happy?
Anyone talking up the Alliance vote is clutching at straws. Let’s wait until they pass the 500 mark before anyone starts caring.
The McHugh vote is probably disappointing to him, but then again she did not run as a anti PSF or anti police candidate. Instead she ‘just offered an alternative’. The problem with the dissident PSF in Fermanagh is that they are never more than a peeved off Shinner, but if for example McHugh and Swift could come to an arrangement and organise locally then until then these independents cannot been seen as a reliable gauge.
Overall the Shinners will be peeved that their previously flawless electioneering skilled failed, and also I suspect the DUP are surprised that Arlene did not poll a higher 1st pref.
Many congratulations, Arlene. Do a good job on Fermanagh Distrist Council (before it disappears) and maybe one day you could be an MLA or even a minister. Wait a minute…
Well done DUP this result shows the UUP are not on there way back and Sinn Fein are not having problems in their grass routes as they claim!!!!!!!
Turgon
Put that in your pipe and smoke it!