The UK and Ireland in it together
Just as the stamp duty cut fails to overwhelm, the forecasters pile on the agony. “UK is the only major economy to face recession this year, OECD warns. It said the UK economy will shrink 0.3% in the third quarter, and 0.4% in the fourth. It believes the UK economy will grow by 1.2% for the whole of 2008, well down on the 1.8% forecast in June.”
Ireland knew it was walking the plank in June, courtesy of the Economic and Social Research Institute.
So we’ll sink and swim together; nothing new in that, even though we may use different strokes to pull us out.
In one respect, the UK is a mite more fortunate, thanks to North Sea Oil. The Treasury recorded a better-than-expected surplus of £4.8bn in July, with the public coffers lifted by a £4bn corporation tax contribution from North Sea companies, more than twice as much as in July 2007, while Irish state revenues are plummeting faster than expected only two months ago. If anything, the mood is gloomier in Dublin than in London.
Only a couple of weeks ago it was the supposedly arthritic old euoropean economies that were thought to be heading into recession and not Britain.
Given that the recent US growth figures suprised ‘the markets’ and with the general confusion amongst economists generaly as to what the feck is going on the latest forecasts should be treated with caution.
It looks ominously like the 1980s in the Republic with the trade unions flexing their muscles and they’ve now got an overvalued exchange rate which they can do nothing about.
I remember a few months ago some folk here seemed rather delighted that the Celtic Tiger had the “Feline panleukopenia economica” and were somewhat smug too, when infact it’s a global phenomenon. The sooner Bush is gone the better so as we can all get a fresh breath of optimism again!
Greagoir, I think you have hit one of the nails on the head. The absence of feelgood factor is as big a drag on this whole issue as anything else.
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