While waiting for the working group
The UUP and Tories are keeping their new relationship in the news by drip feeding the results of their YouGov poll. In response to the new developments the DUP seems to be adopting a little bit of everything response. Today Edwin Poots challenged Sir Reg Empey about an attack on Orange Order and UUP MLA David McNarry placed on the local Conservatives website (now removed). Despite its removal it was defended by the local Conservative responsible for policy (pdf file) complaining about:
“the tribal swamp that masquerades as Ulster/Protestant Culture”
UUP MLA Tom Elliott issued a firm denial of any break in the relationship:
“the DUP was relentlessly trying to interfere in the UUP-Tory talks and would not be ditching its support and links with the Order.”
Previously Nelson McCausland asked about the impact on left-leaning UUP members and voters. Fred Cobain welcomed the moves in the interests of the Union but added the caveat that:
He has reserved judgement on what talks could mean for policy, until they are concluded.
Alastair Ross queried the UUP stance on academic selection. The local Conservatives undermined the ‘national politics’ narrative when they responded:
“Party policy for the rest of the UK has to reflect different situations in other regions. Unlike Northern Ireland most parts of GB do not have a selection based post-primary system. Therefore Party policy has to reflect different local circumstances.”
They have also shone a spotlight on the re-emergence of Lord Trimble, under whom’s leadership the electoral damage was done to the UUP. Also the issue of abortion could be brought into the mix if the NI amendment is accepted when Parliament meets again.
While the big idea may be attractive to both the Conservatives and Ulster Unionists, the detail of policy and organisational relationship will make for some tough decisions. Will the UUP opt for a wholesale alliance and the policy shifts that will involve or a looser relationship to allow for some key differences, which weakens the national politics narrative? Will the local Conservatives be willing to be silent to suit UUP needs? While these questions are being mulled the DUP is attempting to make hay and the Conservative and UUP public responses seem to be narrowing their options towards a looser relationship.
UPDATE Recently Peter Robinson has attacked Tory plans on the Union but left the door open for a deal in a hung parliament (H/T Oneill).
“a mini-revival in Scotland and Wales”
Hmmmm…no gains in the Welsh Assembly and down 0.1% on 2005 in Glasgow East. Revival?
Should also point out slippage in the vote and loss of a seat in the Scottish Parliament during Dave’s leadership – Cameron bounce in Scotland? Dream on.
Poor, poor DUP. Cant restraint their desire to attack anyone and everyone but poor Peter fears offending Cameron!
What a predictament!
Blackmouth
I can assure you that the Conservatives do NOT want to see the 12th banned on the contrary they are in favour of any event that celebrates the culture of the people in Northern Ireland be it the Twelth Parades, AOH Parades, GAA, Festivals or any other legal celebration.
I would have thought you would be promoting the union of the two parties since it will obviously be of such benefit to the DUP, or maybe you think differently.
Floddy
Want to try addressing the issues.
fd
“I can assure you that the Conservatives do NOT want to see the 12th banned”
Individual members clearly do.
I have no doubt that it will be of benefit to the DUP for all of the reasons I have outlined. That doesn’t mean I shouldn’t outline them. Pointing out the problems that this will create for the UUP is perfectly legitimate political discourse.
Blackmouth
Why would you want to advise the UUP if it is to the advantage of the DUP that they fail? Not like the DUP at all, since they have spent 30 years trying to destroy the UUP.
Unfortunately the Conservative party is a little bit bigger than the DUP and won’t be concerned with your stone throwing.
The DUP have members that abhor gays, that believe the world was created 6,000 years ago, are those official DUP policies or just those of some of your members.
fd
The Tory Party might well be bigger and not deflected, but the volume of posts on this thread from Tories and UUP folks suggests otherwise, no?
BM
What about your party members?
The two paries have a common purpose to be the biggest party in NI. As you might expect when you attack us we will defend our position. It is just surprising that you think it wise to attack something that you think is good for you.
Blackmouth,
The below is your quote;
As for Owen Paterson at Dand Winter’s Cottage, it merely goes to show just how devoted to the UUP the Tories truly are.
That clealry implies that Mr Paterson meeting with other MPs is somehow wrong.
Also, yes indeed the DUP do believe there will be a hung parliament;
Nigel Dodds on 24 July;
With the prospect of a hung Parliament stronger than ever, and as recent events show, having a strong bloc of DUP Parliamentarians acting cohesively will be very significant.
Its on their website in case I’m deemed to be lying. The phrase ‘stronger than ever’ makes the phrase ‘out of touch’ look laughable.
I note you decided not to comment further on your odd claims about the Barnett formula?? On Labour being more committed to union?? On the Conservative policy on grammar schools??
And the latest line…individual conservative members want the 12th banned. Hmmm, is it not the case that individual DUP members think homosexuality is worse than child abuse. Ah yes, individual members…
“Pointing out the problems that this will create for the UUP is perfectly legitimate political discourse.”
And it is also ‘legitimate political discourse’ to point out that the DUP’s response has been inconsistent, scattergun and reeks of desperation.
Blackmouth,
Ok, to deal with your concerns in order>
The Barnett Formula:
The Union does not begin and end at Aldergrove. There are four parts to the Union and if England leaves the Union, then there is no Union, simple as that. Many in England feel that the Barnett Formula discriminates against them; it is therefore for the sake of the whole Union that it needs to be seriously looked at; Barnett himself has admitted that reality.
Really? And Cameron is acting entirely out of pro-Union conviction and not out of a feeble desire to ditch the reality of the Tories being essentially an English party?
Your argument was that Labour not the Tories were now the party of the Union. I would stress that “now” and add “for the time being whilst it remains politically expedient”.
And if by that circular question you’re asking whether I think the Tories as a whole have more genuine Unionist tendencies than Labour? Then the answer is “Yes”.
And if that, as you allege, is Cameron’s real motivation, who’s he out the impress? Are the UUP that big a prize in the bigger UK picture in your eyes?
Kind of burst the bubble that David Campbell has been floating about the UUP having an impact on Tory policy doesn’t it?
David Campbell? The UUP presently have one MP out of 646; post merger/”informal-link up” will they wield less or more power than Sylvia presently does? That was my question, which you’ve failed to answer.
And I see you also haven’t answered me my last (admitedly tricky) question:
Do you think a UUP-Tory link-up will weaken our position within the Union?
If so, why?
Do you think it will weaken the DUP’s position within the Unionist family?
If not, then why are you, as a fellow Unionist, getting so hot and bothered about it when nationalists and republicans have, by and large, shrugged their shoulders at the news?
It’s not going to affect the DUP’s core vote is it and potentially it can only bring more “non-traditional” voters to the Unionist cause surely?
A “win-win” for all true Unionists.
Blackmouth,
Re the Tory’s present position in Scotland and Wales:
Hmmmm…no gains in the Welsh Assembly and down 0.1% on 2005 in Glasgow East. Revival?
If you refer back to my post, you will see that I stated “according to latest opinion polls”. Bye-elections, which you as a Dupe should know, are not an accurate indication of how the electorate would vote tomorrow.
Anyway, FYI:
Scotland:
The latest amalgamated polling regarding how Scotland would vote in a General Election regards the Tories at 20%, 4% up on the last Westminster election.
Wales:
“The website Electoral Calculus suggests that if a snap election was called, the Welsh Conservatives would become Wales’ largest party and send 17 MPs to Westminster – two more than Labour.”
I think that is probably a tad optimistic, nevertheless does it not seem to indictate somewhat of a revival in fortunes since that 2005 election you were relying on?
Chekov
It hardly reeks of desperation to point out the glaring divisions which this will create in the UUP. I said before the UUP was a type of coalition that transcends left-right political divisions – becoming aligned to one political party will shatter that coalition.
Furthermore, if people were so enamoured with Dave, why didn’t they vote Tory when they had the chance in 2007?
O’Neill
Polling more reliable than actual people, putting votes in actual ballot boxes? No wonder you’re an Ulster Unionist!
No wonder you’re an Ulster Unionist!
I’ll the Ulster to you Blackmouth, I’m more of a UK man myself;)
Or even…
No wonder you’re an Ulster Unionist!
I’ll leave the Ulster to you Blackmouth, I’m more of a UK man myself;)
O’Neill
Suits me just fine.
Ulster within the UK of course, before we get the usual screaming “Ulster nationalist” nonsense!
BM
Seems you like to pick the easy questions to answer, how about some of the more difficult ones.
e.g. re your party members
The most interesting aspect of the proposed link between the Tories and the UUP is the DUP reaction.
Suddenly the DUP – the party that ushered in the first non orangeman premier of Northern Ireland are offended by an individual toy’s view on the Orange.
Suddenly the Tories views on education in England becomes a massive issue for the introverts in the DUP.
Suddenly Peter the punt feels that the Tories proposals to deal with the West Mid Lothian question is bad for the UNion.
What has been bad for the UNion – particularly the union of GB with NI – has been the little ulster attitude of the DUP. The refusal of certain DUP members to accept a pluralist approach (some would say a British approach) to personal conduct and lifestyle. The respect for divesity required in a modern society – equally lacking from the DUP and ultimately the inability of the DUP to genuinely engage at a National Level.
The whinging by the poots, ross’s and mccauslands of this world simply proves the fact the DUP were wrong footed by this and they genuinely see a danger inthe UUP presenting a real alternative to the narrow little ulster politics presented by the DUP.
More power to the UUP and Tories
The DUPs obsession with the OO is interesting. Obviously they think that there is an electoral advantage but always remember:-
1 Papa Doc thought so highly of the OO and it of him that Free Presbyterian Ministers were debarred from acting as Chaplains by the OO. Paisley then, in effect, defected to / supported the Independent Orange Institution not the OO. Relationships have improved in later years but the DUPs Orange Luv Fest is skin deep.
2 the OO has been a declining force in size and influence for almost 30 years. Why? Because for years many Protestants have recognized it as a home for extremists and nutters and find that distasteful. That type will vote DUP anyway – or at least will vote for anything that doesn’t look gay and is wrapped in an Ulster flag (a Union Jack won’t do these days)
3 there is still a reasonably large other element in the OO that isn’t as extreme. These will vote on policy and who they trust. They recognize the problems in their own ranks and some may even despair that the leadership seems always in thrall to them and led them down a blind alley over Drumcree – or more accurately, to mix metaphors, simply followed the membership over the edge of the Drumcree cliff.
A little blue water between the UUP and DUP on this might be useful. For the UUP there is relatively little downside if they play it right.
Blackmouth,
I shall now make the assumption that you have reneged on your comments on Mr Paterson, the ‘hung’ parliament, Barnett, Tories and grammar schools, individual members comments…
Good to see sense has prevailed!
I of course am now fully braced for what comes next…
Maybe the TUV should link up with the BNP.
Oneill
“The latest amalgamated polling regarding how Scotland would vote in a General Election regards the Tories at 20%, 4% up on the last Westminster election.”
FYI
However the latest yougov poll has them down at 13%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1286
lpm
You can take whatever you want. The Tories said they were against grammar schools. They said they wanted to rip up Barnett and create 2 different classes of MP.
People had the chance to vote Tory in 2007 and they comprehensively decided not to. I appreciate your frustration lpm, as time goes on the Tories hostile take-over bid becomes less and less tenable. Bad luck, you’re going to have to win your own MLA seats rather than poaching those elected on a UUP ticket.
Sometimes you have to gamble. NuLabour is dead for a generation and its time for reallignment. The UU are right to look for this.
F D – or fairly similar deal i like to remind you, as peter the leader has always said, the only polls that matter are those that take place in ballot boxes and a tory UUP link up has the potential for creating something new in NI politics. Amazingly the last time something new was created it was the UUP that did the creating then too, 1998 so we shouldn’t really be surprised that the UUP are leading the way again.
Now the question is will the voters follow that lead or will it take them 10 years to accept that it is right. Like they did the last time
BM
Still avoiding the more difficult questions I see.
You obviously don’t have a sound grasp of Conservative policy you should read up before making comments
A Conservative Unionist as First Minister and A Conservative PM in No. 10 is the best outcome for the people of NI.
FYI
However the latest yougov poll has them down at 13%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1286
FD
I believe that is for the Scottish Assembly Elections. the figure I quoted (and the arena Blackmouth was arguing in) was for Westminster. AFAIK the next Westminster electio will be before the next Scottish Assembly- but I’ll agree it’s a strange discrepancy between the two figures (less than two months apart).
To my fellow FD
“A Conservative Unionist as First Minister and A Conservative PM in No. 10 is the best outcome for the people of NI.”
The Scottish electorate (and lesser degree Welsh) reached a different conclusions having experienced a comparable situation.
I should also say that poll I quoted was based on an amalgamation of five different UK opinion polls.
Oneill
“I believe that is for the Scottish Assembly Elections”
You are correct my apologies. On Westminster intention it has Conservatives at 18% (basically static)
http://www.yougov.com/uk/archives/pdf/SNP_website.pdf
I’m really not sure I can be bothered joining the argument here. Good intra-unionist mudslinging very contrustive for the cause.
But re Scotland, there will be a by-election in th UK Parliament seat of Glenrothes, following the death of John MacDougall this morning. I don’t think it’s been mentioned on slugger yet.
x
“Now the question is will the voters follow that lead or will it take them 10 years to accept that it is right. Like they did the last time”
Ahh, a bracing dose of contempt for the voters, what fine fellows these UUP guys are!
Also, the comments of Dave’s favourite think-tank provide a useful insight into how the Tories view the regions north of Oxford! LOL!
Let’s abolish Liverpool – vote Conservative!
oh, this is next door to Gordon’s Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath (the 2nd by election in Fife in 2 and a half years) and the SNP are well placed to win (more so than Glasgow East).
Keep this up and they could displace the DUP as 4th largest party at Westminster!
Conquistador
Let’s hope not! But then, how many Tories would actually be delighted to see the SNP win simply because they want to destablise Brown still further, just as they feigned outrage over the 42-day issue when a good third of their parliamentary party actually believes in it but put their beliefs to the one side in order to try and bring Brown down?
Conquistador
What were the Scots Parliamentary results in this seat?
“Also, the comments of Dave’s favourite think-tank provide a useful insight into how the Tories view the regions north of Oxford! LOL!
Let’s abolish Liverpool – vote Conservative! ”
and yet your wonderful party wants to lean towards these guys
Lean towards? On most occassions.
Full blown merger? Not bloody likely!
In the SP it’s a slightly different seat – Fife Central*
SNP 11,920
Lab 10754
Lib 2,288
Con 2003
SNP Gain from Lab
*Seat of former 1st minister Henry McLeish
SNP would start as favourites then. Not good.
Blackmouth : how many Tories would actually be delighted to see the SNP win simply because they want to destablise Brown still further
How many DUPpers would be happy to see an SNP win just because their leader is Big Ian’s kind of nationalist
Come on now – working with the man because he was the FM of Scotland does not equate to endorsement. Don’t be so foolish.
It seems Alistair Ross wasn’t the only one to highlight the Jeff Peel disease.
http://paceni.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/melanie-phillips-points-the-way-for-tories/
He seems to get hot under the collar whenever the Cameroon Conservative’s inconsistencies are pointed out.
Now where exactly are the DUP on education since it is clear that the Tory/UUP position is anti-grammar?
Blackmouth,
It is a simple fact that David Cameron supports the retention of academic selection and grammar schools in NI. He is on record as saying that and to claim that he hasnt is a blatant lie.
Fellow FD
We don’t have a UNP here (the SNP is essentialy Conservative in outlook and certainly attracts many Scottish conservatives) so the comparison is not exactly valid unless the DUP are actually the UNP.
The Scottish electorate did elect a Labour FM until Blair and Co. made such a mess that they lost it.
So I wouln’t use that as an example.
A Conservative FM and PM is still the best economic outcome for all in NI and especially for those who are unionist (note small u).
Stephen
I think you were at the same education meeting as I, where Sammy Wilson outlined the DUP position (Bob McCartney was in attendance that night).
Silly silly me. I suppose saying “that’s my kind of nationalist” would normally be regarded as an endorsement, but given the same man said “To enter into government with the terrorists of IRA/Sinn Fein would be treason. Of that we will never be guilty” 2 years before jumping into bed with that very party, I should have known better to believe what he says