Ulster Unionists and Conservatives to merge…
Well, well, well. Here’s a thing. The news from David Cameron and Reg Empey in tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph (and here) is that the Conservative Party and the Ulster Unionist Party have agreed to set up “a joint working group to explore the possibilities of a closer cooperation leading to the creation of a new political and electoral force in Northern Ireland”. Slugger understands that although the decision was made just a week ago, the party’s talks with the Tories began as early as last October. The news appears to have come as something of a shock to the DUP.Perhaps it shouldn’ have. This was Reg Empey’s speech last March:
I have given David Cameron an undertaking that if he succeeds in forming a new group in the European Parliament after the 2009 elections, outside the federalist leaning EPP, then the Ulster Unionists will support him by joining his new Group. It is vital that we build a pan-Union front, involving like minded parties who believe in the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom. And it must spread to the European Parliament as well. The Union and the United Kingdom cannot survive if those who believe in it fight their own corners separately.
And judging by tomorrow’s joint Op Ed, it is clear that both Cameron and Empey are after the middle class liberal vote in Ulster every bit as much as the new liberal Tories are in Britain:
There are too many in Northern Ireland who have been put off playing any role (including voting) in politics by the vicious sectarian divisions of recent years. We believe that the creation of a new political and electoral dynamism will attract a surge of support from people in every part of the community who want to leave the past behind and join together to see a 21st Century Northern Ireland in which every citizen is an equal citizen in the politics of the United Kingdom. We believe the time for change has arrived and we are determined to make it happen.
Northern Ireland has changed over the past decade. Much of that change was generated by David Trimble and the Ulster Unionist Party. It is a change which has now been endorsed by the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein in particular, who are governing together in the institutions created by the Belfast Agreement in 1998. Northern Ireland, by agreement of both sides, is no longer a “cold house” for either Irish Nationalists or Unionists.
There is now speculation building in Westminster that the tipping point was reached, not by the 42 days vote, that was got over at the first subsequent meeting between Robinson and Cameron, but the increasingly strident (some would say incessant) grandstanding by Iris Robinson on the subject of homosexuality. Indeed, if Iain Dale is any indication of the current temper of the Tory party, she may have caused her party some considerable damage in that quarter.
The DUP might also take note that the Ulster Unionists are not the rank amatuers they clearly were just a few short years ago. There has not been the slightest hint that negotiations were either ongoing, or as advanced as they clearly are. The Ulster Unionists may still only have one MP, but they may now be able to call on much more substantial resources of the Tory party. And perhaps too they finally have a purpose above and beyond the narrow protection of a Union that is no longer under coherent attack from those outside, but in danger of losing coherence from within.
And perhaps a future to aspire to rather than post glories to mourn.
…all the people of Northern Ireland need to be able to address and be fully involved in all the national issues that are not devolved – foreign affairs, defence, the strategic fiscal and expenditure issues and the broad thrust of social policy. Northern Ireland needs to be brought back into the mainstream of UK politics. It needs more full-time MPs working in the House of Commons, taking part in all the national debates.
It needs MPs who have the real prospect of assuming office as ministers in the government of the day at Westminster. Northern Ireland needs to be properly represented in the corridors of power – and Westminster needs to benefit from the undoubted skills of its people. For too long many of the most talented have been turned-off by a political discourse dominated by the politics of division rather than the mainstream political debate of the nation.
Hmm..
And what of the Northern Ireland Conservatives?
Goodbye UUP, hello (again) to the Tories
It’s seems like an act of desperation by the UUP. They will be lucky if they still have a European MP after the next election, and with only one Westminster MP, they do not have a lot to offer the Tories..
As a UUP member, I should imagine the Ulster Tories will join with us in seeking to put the Executive back in the hands of a true Unionist Party.
Well, what indeed? We will have to wait till Autumn to find out precisely. But at a guess, if Cameron has ultimate seniority, they’re like to be happy.
6CountyProd…..what a misnomer of a name….the UUP will be back in charge of Stormont and have additional Westminster MPs after the next elections….the lies and deceit of the DUPes will ensure more Dromores.
I can see why the UUP is desperate to hitch its wagon to the apparently rising Tories (just like SDLP with FF) but why on earth would the Tories reciprocate?
Many of the NI Conservatives today – if not twenty years ago – seem to be nearly as close to the Alliance Party as to the UUP in terms of the constitutional future. Reg hasn’t exactly set out a stall for progressive reforms and seems personally happy to play third fiddle in the discordant Executive orchestra.
Bob Wilson where are you? What’s up?
6cp:
Not sure you are reading sufficiently between the lines. They have been talking at senior level since last October. Believe me, if the Tories didn’t want this, Cameron would not be penning a joint byline with Empey in the Daily Telegraph.
This is hardly a time for begrudgery. Although they will surely have some high hurdles to jump, it looks like Empey has given his party a new purpose. Along with Sinn Fein and the Greens, they are now a party which can legitimately say they have plans to go into real government.
This is really interesting actually. I suppose it is the logical conclusion of unionism; to move into a political grouping supportive of the Union and that actually has support (albeit limited outside England) in other constituent countries within it, and in so doing link NI further into the political life of the UK as a whole. What has come before was a kind of “our wee Province, Protestant Parliament for Protestant People” brand of Ulster nationalism that has been looked on with puzzlement from across the Irish sea but this could be an interesting development.
That is one reading of it. The other more short-term view could be that this is the UUP trying to save itself in the face of DUP domination. The DUP is the ultimate expression of Ulster nationalism and Iris Robinson has underlined that with her remarks in recent weeks. The DUP have no place in British politics outside NI, except maybe in the far-right fringes.
As I said here in January:
“If the Conservatives are to make any real inroads into politics here, then it’s going to take something imaginative. While most Unionists voted DUP last time, this was on the basis of the DUP saying that the negotiations were continuing and that they were going to get a ‘Fair Deal’. We are starting to see the reality now e.g. the DUP allowing terrorists to be on an equal level with real victims. One only has to think of real victims like Ian Gow and Edgar Graham – murdered by Sinn Fein IRA cowards – to see how shamefully the DUP are acting.
So there is definitely scope for a real alternative to DUP spin. It would also give the Conservatives councillors and MLAs across Northern Ireland as well as putting them in NI Government at the stroke of a pen. Otherwise they’ll never make the breakthrough as most Unionists (Roman Catholics and Protestants) don’t wish to split the pro-Union vote any further.
Many Unionists would find the idea of voting for a Conservative & Unionist Party with a world-view very attractive.”
For me, a Nationalist from the north this is a hugely interesting development and potentially make or break for the Union.
I think among Nationalists there is a sense, and has been since before 1998, that unionism had become so detached from the modern GB in it’s view of the world, the union and the position of NI in it that the weight of time and it’s own impotence would cause the union to increasingly fragment over time. Perhaps with what is going on in Scotland (or not)this is happening?
The subsequent post cease fire indifference to NI in GB and the rise to power of the DUP, a party that should it ever assume a national role in it’s current form, (bowler hats and all) would embarass those image and message conscious londoners so much they’d disown us quickly has meant we have become increasing confidant that the union will eventually fall in itself.
However should sir Reg and his lot manage to enter the cabinet (and not combust as the DUP surely would) I would admit that the union may be in a stronger position with the potential not just of someone from NI having a grown up role to play in real politik but NI being valued for something. (buliding a big ship that was a load of crap in 1912 doesn’t count).
Howver I keep the faith with my DUP compatriots. May be get old Iris around the country swearing her allegiance in her own blood. Something sensible like that will keep those unionists in their place.
Mick
I read on the front page of the Telegraph that for the Conservatives the model would also be repeated in Scotland, a way of the Conseratives adopting a more federal structure in which the Scottish and NI partners are partners rather than juniors. In Scotland, where the Tory revival seems to need more autonomy for the local party, it makes sense and it could make sense to have similar partner relationships in NI too. As for the local Conservatives well they might just agree with a lot of what David Cameron writes in that joint piece with Reg Empey.
Mick
See here:
Telegraph Front Page Story
Post 12 and link in 13 explains what’s in it for the Tories.
Thanks for that Slug. Just doing a piece for Brassneck with just that angle. It’s precisely the same angle suggested by Matthew Parris last October, as it happens.
Mick Des et al
The NI Tories are on board. Go to
NI Conservatives
where there is lots more stuff…quotes from David Trimble, owen Patterson et al.
The NI Tories are branding it An Historic Announcement.
NI Conservatives blog item on the Announcement
This has the potential to be really quite sensible – although of course many more “potentially sensible ideas” in NI politics have hit the buffers than actually gotten anywhere.
To be fair, there’s quite a lot in it for the UUP – differentiation from the DUP (“British” versus “UlsterProd”), link to London politics, something “new” (always a good thing when you’re otherwise on the slide).
For NI generally, there’d be no harm in having two Assembly parties directly linked to Westminster (particularly if they were linked to the two parties which form the next coalition in London…
)
But most of all, for those whose objective is the de-sectarianization of NI politics, there should be no fear in the idea of elections contested between:
- an NI Conservative (and unionist) Party,
- an NI (cross-community) Liberal Alliance,
- an NI Green Party,
- an NI (cross-community) Labour coalition, and
- a constitutional Irish Republican party (let’s call it “Fianna Fáil”).
Bob Wilson says:
I have sent Mick the article but actually it is now up on our website in full
Someone asks what of the Ulster Tories and are we happy. We have represented the Party in these talks over the past few months.
We, Owen Paterson and David Cameron are united in our approach and our vision. We are very happy!
Caroline Spelman and others senior members of the Party have also been closely involved.
We have had very productive meetings with the UUP and Sir Reg.
Can I completely scotch any suggestion that this has anything to do with the 42 day vote or Mrs Robinson’s opinions.
Unlike the DUP we have a broad long term vision aimed at normalising society and politics in Northern Ireland.
I have, through the limitations of the internet, sought for many months to convince Slugger readers that Cameron understands our situation and is committed to helping us change it.
Read the article carefully and listen to him on the TV and radio tomorrow and judge for yourself!
I believe Sir Reg and the UUP see in Cameron a man they can do business with.
This is potentially the beginning of the end of our isolation from UK politics that has lasted far too long.
Apparently the DUP are upset but actually it is the Shinners who should be most unset. Our All- UK agenda based on inclusion and tolerance will reveal the true narrow and divisive nature of Gerry’s supposed All Ireland agenda.
Bob
I am impressed at the way this has been announced and with the local Conservatives in the loop. I do hope that it has a positive influence on NI politics.
I’d say from Cameron’s point of view, this has little to do with NI and lots to do with Scotland, and presenting themselves as the real party to save the Union. Obviously he doesn’t think this would affect any future potential deal with the DUP, and I think he’s right. Seems a mistake though should there be any future difficulties within the Executive. Can hardly be an objective honest broker. I reckon he thinks that means the Executive is safe.
I linked it just after it came on line at midnight Bob. Thanks for the copy!
There is a logic to it – people working for the local UUP party can see themselves as part of a larger federation with the possibility of representation and a stake in government at a higher level. Also might bring new types of people into politics locally, as David Trimble says on the ConservativeNI site.
I would venture a guess that it is safe Gari.
Neither of the ‘big two’ have any other road to go. Both lose credibility if it falls. This just puts them even more on their mettle to actually get things done, and done well.
In any case, it wouldn’t be the first time there was a potential clash of interests between local and national scene. Think FF and SF?
The contrast with the thus far unsuccessful public courtship between FF and SDLP is striking.
I reckon it’s safe myself Mick, perhaps I ought to have said less likely to see temporary manufactured crises such as we are in the middle of now.
As for the local v national conflict, this is a choice to develop such an option, with a party with one MP, and that does not look capable of winning any more in a straight fight with the DUP. Perhaps this will provide added impetus for UUP/DUP pacts. I doubt the UUP will be stupid enough to think that this means that they could take any of those seats on the back of conservative support, but strategy hasn’t been their strongpoint for the last decade or so.
The FF/SDLP point is a good one. I just don’t think there is an appetite for it in FF. Why form an alliance with losers, and damage your credibility? Derry would be a safe seat, but the rest would be a burden. And lots of the more progressive elements in the SDLP wouldn’t want it either. I don’t think that will really change on either side. Maybe if the SDLP falls to one seat.
Is the Orange Order still represented on the Ulster Unionist Council – or, in other words, is Cameron getting into bed with Diamond Dan? What wou;d Iris make of that!?
I thought the link was broken a few years ago, at the OO’s insistence, but may be wrong.
I see IJP comments and he talks sense and it is something I’ve always personally remarked on as to why it didn’t happen sooner, every election it was always raised about the Tories.
Interesting, a benign form of nationalism on the part of the UUP, and after having put up with the DUP’s recent comments it is a breath of fresh air and a little bit of excitement based on hope for much better given the last awful year. It was all beginning to get somewhat noxious there recently.
It is still a very poor second best politically, but given a choice in terms of representational conservatism or quasi-political-religious sectarianism, there is only one to pick from.
Pic:
No.
Mick, I imagine you’ll not be able to sleep tonight after all this
)
At the risk of being accused of not being positive enough about the possibilities here, I’m hardly convinced this will ultimately amount to much. Maybe it’s just all the wild speculation that went on about the DUP being at the centre of Westminster a few weeks ago and how quickly that went down the drains…
I agree it’s a smart move (at least in PR terms) by the UUP. At this point they need to do SOMETHING, apart from constant carping at DUP-Sinn Fein. At the very least it gives them some buzz for awhile and put some kind of ideological blue water between themselves and the DUP.
Whether this actually makes the slightest difference in the UUP-DUP contest, or in northern unionism playing a pivotal role in Westminster, or people in Whitehall giving a toss about norn iron…I honestly don’t think so.
I still see the Conservatives being an “English”, as opposed to a “British” party. It just boils down to where their actual strength is located (and where it isn’t). Frankly, adding the UUP doesn’t exactly make NI a valuable Conservative stronghold.
Would the variants of the English parliament/committee being mooted by the Conservatives be ditched simply because their Northern Irish wing doesn’t like it? The Conservatives have also been sounding off recently about the North pulling its own weight and basically stop suckling at the teat. Will the UUP go along with that? How popular will that be compared to the DUP’s version of ulster nationalism?
Interesting. I can see the motivation on both sides. The Tory party appears stronger on the union without: changing their Northern Ireland policy; and associating with raving nutters. Essentially a marketing exercise by PR man Cameron. It might help win the Tories some wavering votes in Scotland.
Meanwhile the Ulster Unionists appear to be both influential and inept at the same time.
Assuming the two parties come closer together and it turns out to garner support in NI :
How could this affect other inter-political party relationships ?
Could the Tories/UUP get closer to FF ?
What do the British Labour Party do in response ?
Linking/integrating with either of the two main political parties gives you a decade in the sun followed by a decade in the rain. So, you’ll be an insider with your local success being predicated/dependent on that inside track, and then you’ll be an outsider with no reason why the pragmatic should continue to support you. It might have some useful purpose as a short-term means of pulling the UUP out of its terminal decline, but it sucks as a long-term strategy.
I think all the other politcal parties will privately be very afraid. If the UUP joins forces with NI Conservatives than we will have a true political party, whether or not you agree with their policies, that will possibly be the next party in power in all of the UK.
I think many unionist and some current nationalist voters would react very well to a non sectarian party which is also unionist and also has policies which are not based on a sectarian headcount.
Posters like Dave don’t really seem to understand NI politics, the Conservatives can win in Northern Ireland but only when they are perceived to have a chance of winning.
At the moment their potential voters are either staying at home or voting in the main for the UUP or the SDLP. If the UUP was no longer around and the Conservatives were perceived as the next party to be in power in all of the UK then they could attract a sizeable portion of the former UUP vote plus disaffected DUP and and ‘unionist’ SDLP voters.
A smart move by the Conservatives and the UUP to start down the road to taking sectarian politics out of NI and getting some semblance of sense into the way Stormont is run.
I for one hope it goes ahead and that Labour put up candidates in NI, Allaiance merges with the SDP; the end of the sectarian headcount we call politics can’t end too soon for me.
Come on Dave and Reg get it on.
frustrated democrat, I don’t understand NI’s politics – no dispute there. But my ignorance informs me that that you can’t stop being what you are by the simple expedient of pretending that you are something else. Therefore, when you say that wearing Tory blue instead of orange or green will amount “to taking sectarian politics out of NI” I wonder if your understanding of NI politics is even poorer than my own.
I recently decided never to vote again on account of it being rather pointless in what seemed at the time to be the perpetually DUP-controlled system. In fact, I was considering becoming a nationalist for future border poll purposes, because unification seemed the only way that we would ever escape DUP hegemony.
Now I might have to reconsider my decision. Although the Tories are not perfect, they are infinitely better than the DUP.
I’ll agree with most other people by saying that there seems much more in this deal for the UUP than the Tories. (Would Dave want the new Labour Sylvia?) This is a rare example of the UUP seizing the initiative and subtly reminding people that the DUP is essentially an Ulster nationalist party. But I don’t really see it delivering more UUP seats in 2010. What’s more, if the Tories get a hung parliament, the 9-10 DUP votes are likely to be at least as significant to Cameron as his new partnership.
Touche Dave,
“…you can’t stop being what you are by the simple expedient of pretending that you are something else.”
The whole peace process was premised on this very thing. As for ten years in the sun. If I was in the UUP, I think I’d take that after the last ten years.
Watchman,
That’s an indication: 1, of Cameron’s growing confidence (arrogance?); quite agree about seats. Latest Brassneck piece asks that very same question. Ashcroft can’t do it on his own. And it will need a little more than new Tory fairy dust.
Sylvia is an interesting conundrum for them. One or two seats could fall back towards them, with what would effectively be a new party. But NI has been soo cut off from the GB politics game for so long, it is hard to see how or where that momentum is going to come from.
But perhaps the new professionalism within what was previously the most divided and leaky party in Northern Ireland is indicative that the review of the last year was about more than the political navel gazing of the past.
In which case we cannot rule out the possibility that they may have ‘a cunning plan’?
Let’s be clear about what has happened here.
Without consulting in any way with the Party membership the leadership has just decided to go right ahead and try to ‘merge’ the UUP into the Tories, a party which doesn’t share the views or values of a very significant chunk of the UUP membership.
There are hundreds of Party members in every constituency across Northern Ireland – many who have been UUP members for decades – who dont identify with the Tories one bit and who have just been completely ignored in this whole process.
An Ulster Unionist Council meeting needs to be called and all those who believe the UUP has a future as an independent political entity need to work together to defeat this move.
If that fails a new pro-Union party should be set up to reflect the values of all those centre-ground and left of centre unionists who are being completely tossed aside with this so-called ‘merger’.
I am just so incredibly disappointed with the way this has been handled, the way the Party grassroots were not consulted beforehand, the way it gets announced out of the blue in the Daily Telegraph like this.
I almost don’t know what to think. This is shattering news. This needs to be stopped.
DC
I indeed think a UUC should be called then those you speak of (not very many I think) will be able to speak for themselves.
I think getting back to winning is what is important for the grassroots members and this offers it.
The new system in the UUP is centralising decision making and getting away from deals done behind doors in Orange halls to put forward unsuitable candidates is at an end. The grass roots in the UUP have not served it well in the past and unfortunately have an average age well above retiring.
Best of all it is a shock to the DUP and UUP members love that more than anything!
Hi David
Interesting.
If, however, the report suggested a UUP-Tory link along the lines of the Alliance-LibDem link, do you really think the Unionist grassroots would still be opposed?
I’m not sure anyone was proposing a “merger”.
David Christopher
‘new pro-Union party should be set up to reflect the values of all those centre-ground and left of centre unionists ‘
If you believe in the Union you might consider joining the main left of centre party in the UK – the Labour Party?
If you are only interested in six county Protestant unionism you could join the DUP or TUV
First the UUP tried to link with the PUP now they want the Conservatives seems like they will join up with the Alliance party next.
Watchman/Mick
” But I don’t really see it delivering more UUP seats in 2010. ”
Don’t forget that the DUP are now an “in government” party. Like any government party they will have to make decisions or fail to make decisions and defend the consequences. They can soon look tired and divided if things go wrong. Plus there is the potential for Iris Robinson to keep up her anti-gay type comments (worse than child abuse etc.). All of that brings risks that the UUP can benefit from in a couple of seats such as South Belfast and South Antrim and to hold on to North Down. Sylvia may be hapy to be on government benches and take a government job in 20 minths time.
Ian
Clearly what’s being talked about goes far beyond the links Alliance currently have – even the question of whether the name ‘Ulster Unionist Party’ will survive is up for grabs, even as just the brand of the local branch of the Tories.
I do appreciate that Alliance Party strategists must be licking their chops in anticipation of picking up those moderate UUP voters who dont identify with the Tories.
Not to mention DUP strategists who now have the prospect of hoovering up almost all the working class UUP vote.
Also its all very easy to talk of merging with the Tories at a time when there is a popular middle-ground Tory leader – but politics is cyclical and a merger won’t just be for Christmas – so what’ll happen when the Tories have an unpopular leader pursuing economic policies that bleed the UKs bottom 50% (bottom 70%+ of the NI population) ?
David
PS to clear up any confusion i’m not the other “DC” who posts regularly on this forum!
“How could this affect other inter-political party relationships ?
Could the Tories/UUP get closer to FF ?
What do the British Labour Party do in response?”
Abucs,
What the Labour Party might do will be very interesting given that they haven’t, as yet, decided to organise here (correct me if I’m wrong).
If they do take to the political field what then for the SDLP as their sister party. Could this hurry up the marriage with FF?
What about Alliance and the Lib Dems?
As with others – i can’t see this making any sort of a major difference.
David Christopher echoes my first reaction to this.
What are left-leaning unionists who dislike the DUP supposed to do?
Alliance or the Greens?
A sensible move for the UUP (although I can’t understand why it took them so long to get around to it.)
They have needed to develop an identity that is more than Unionists who dislike/hate the DUP party which they have relied on in the past while. They had two basic choices either go the Alliance Road or Conservative. The Conservative route was always the more sensible choice.
Whatever Sylvia Hermon’s inclinations it probably makes North Down safer too when you consider its electoral history.
IMO Unionism benefits from two competitive parties. Match this with the strong staff team that has been gathered round the UUP of late (plus the fact they actually listen to them) and it seems to be an indicator that there is life in the old UUP dog yet.
There will be the obvious attack lines about the AIA etc etc. However, even as someone for whom the AIA was a formative political event I doubt that has much bite.
Whether it advances the broad cause of Unionism time will tell, it is essentially the insider v outsider debate to which there is no conclusive answer to. During the Troubles the relationship between the UUP and Conservatives bore only bitter fruit.
Part of the reason the DUP looked so good in the past was the UUP was so dire so it seems the DUP will not be able to rely upon that anymore. It also acts as good incentive to re-establish a bit of message discipline and organisational rigour that seems to have been lacking of late.
PS The NI Conservatives trying to pretend they haven’t just been well and truly done over by HQ is also a mildly amusing start to the day.