Fermanagh Council By-election
A by-election will be called in Enniskillen DEA of Fermanagh Council, following an objection from UUP Councillor Bertie Kerr to a DUP co-option to replace the recently deceased DUP Cllr Joe Dodds (father of Nigel Dodds). It appears it was not a UUP group decision to object. Two previous co-options to the Council (1 DUP and 1 SF) had gone through unopposed. The Enniskillen DEA is the only one in Fermanagh where the DUP outpolled the UUP in 2005. However, it is not just a tight fight between the DUP and UUP – 28.2% to 20.2% – but also between Unionism and Nationalism – 49% to 46.4% (excluding Socialist candidate). Will the UUP run as it seemed supportive of a co-option? Will the TUV run when a further split in votes would almost certainly directly benefit SF? Fermanagh Unionism is known for its conservatism so will the nature of the vacancy, the death of a well-known local councillor, lead to a backlash at the forcing of a by-election? Whatever the answers, it will be the first electoral test for a DUP led by Peter Robinson.
Basil
Hopefully, given the risks involved, the two Unionist parties can sort something out to clean up Kerr’s mess.
I find it utterly bizzare that Arlene Foster and many on this blog are accusing the Ulster Unionist Party of being hypocrites. The DUP got next to no adverse publicity for having the audacity to force a by election purely for their own party political gain. Now the Ulster Unionists force a by election due to a poor candidate being nominated for co-option and the DUP critice them for being selfish.
They have shown just how petrified they are of by-elections, Sammy Wilson has not been able to end them before they suffer another defeat. Does anyone else see any parrallels between Brown and Robinson.
I predict that due to poor canidate choice and the natural return of many voters to the UUP, the ulster unionists will top the poll.
If you are suggesting that the UUP don’t put forward a candidate Blackmouth surely they should go further and ensure that Cllr Kerr refunds the taxpayer the cost of the by-election.
Perhaps David Davies should dig deep in his pockets for his little “protest”.
Emmanuel Goldstein/Jonathan Crawford
Time will tell.
The DUP are running scared.
They treated the electorate with contempt by putting forward a candidate with no experience and based in Belfast.
How can you look after the people of Enniskillen when you are based at the other end of the country? I wonder if all this politicking will have an impact on Mr. Hogg’s academic progress?
The UUP were right to oppose a co option given the personal circumstances of the DUP candidate.
The electorate should have their say, they should be given the chance to say they are not happy with the DUP. Well Done Bertie, Well Done the UUP
Absolutely Smithsonian the DUP should have put forward some brain-dead hick rather than a well-educated hardworking young man with a keen interest in politics.
Mick C
I see the concept of actually working for people, on the ground is lost on you!
Emmanuel Goldstein
“The DUP got next to no adverse publicity for having the audacity to force a by election purely for their own party political gain.”
Emmanuel – whether or not the DUP got “next to no adverse publicity” for forcing a bye-election in Dromore is questionable. Perhaps part of the backlash the DUP faced in the election was due to that.
The difference here of course being that in Dromore there was absolutely no chance of the seat going to any shade of nationalism. In Enniskillen not only is this a possibility, but a very real possibility of it going to Sinn Fein. That in itself is good cause for criticism.
Smithsonian
Obviously your enemy’s enemy is your friend then. That the new policy of Hillsborough/Cregagh Rd?
interested
The new policy of Dromore, perhaps. What do the DUP actually stand for now? No vision, no future!
Bring on the election
Smithsonian
Working for people on the ground is not lost on me… I note that was a repeated failure of the UUP for many years. How do you know Thomas Hogg would not have worked on the ground…. I recall from my student days that not very many of them were actually spent in Queens.
Poor Smithsonian – great Lodge Room Loyalist.
Mike C
Well you should have spent more time there perhaps you would have learnt something. Maybe the Open University would have suited you better.
The DUP are complete hypocrites. Maybe the electorate want people who say never,never,never and then say OK then. One way or the other, the electorate will have their say and that can only be a good thing.
“Bring on the election”
Well even a stopped clock is correct twice a day. If Bertie Kerr is the man who you look to for vision and the future then that’s a matter entirely for yourself…….
Mike C
“I recall from my student days that not very many of them were actually spent in Queens.”
A fair point – also depends on what course you’re doing. Some of them only take about 5hrs a week (a disgrace but there you go..). On that basis he would have a lot more time to spend on the ground in Fermanagh than anyone in any kind of full-time employment.
Blackmouth
Good to see the DUP trolls are out in force today. Why do you fear an election so much?
Oh sorry we all know the answer to that one.
interested
What have you got against Bertie? He was right to say that the DUP were putting forward a young inexperienced candidate whose personal circumstances make it unlikely that he will be able to serve the people properly.
Oh and by the way I hear there a few more byelections coming up, should we oppose co-option their too.
Smithsonian
Firstly, I am not DUP. Secondly, you have no idea of what I learnt or did not learn or indeed what qualifications I have.
You resort to insults rather than address the valid point I raised. You sling mud at the DUP when the Party you advocate is hardly a shining beacon of truth and competence. Very poor indeed.
I think it is difficult to justify the actions of Cllr Kerr whether he did this on his own or with the Party’s blessing. If the Party don’t punish him then it is clear he had its blessing.
The current make up of the council is nine Unionists to fourteen nationalists. When the UUP take this seat Unionism will not be in a much strnoger position than if the sinners take it.
Being from the east I would not be content if a full time student living in the west was co-opted unto my local council. Resultantly I have considerable empathy with Bert and the many in Eniskillen town who support him over this. If the DUP get rid of the current system of co-options myself and others will be denied a voice in the selection of our public representatives and could end up being represented by fools with no mandate, talent or merit. From my perspective Hogg has shown only one charactaristic – ruthless ambition. This is not what I would want from my councillors.
[edited by moderator]
Mike C
Are you implying other than Hogg the Enniskillen DUP are ‘braindead hicks’.
Mike C
Get a life, if you cant take it, don’t dish it – This a political blog.
The DUP are spent, discredited force, which having spend so many years in the wilderness are desperate to hang on to the trappings of power at any price.
No U turn too tight, no principle that cannot be abandoned, no leader that cannot be knifed.
Let’s see what the electorate has to say.
“I predict that due to poor canidate choice and the natural return of many voters to the UUP, the ulster unionists will top the poll.”
Posted by Emmanuel Goldstein on Jul 08, 2008 @ 02:43 PM
Very optimistic of you Emmanuel however in Dromore the UUP only won on TUV transfers and the UUP vote was down 7%.Also as I said earlier the difference between Dromore and this by-election was that in Dromore a Unionist was always going to win.Here the electorate is evenly split.If there is a 3 way split here then surely the Shinners will gain the seat.
Smithsonian,
What I have against Bertie Kerr could be summed up by the radio interview this morning. Managing to attack the DUP yet state that the only possible way the seat could remain unionist was for the two parties to work together within the one sentence.
He explicitly cited Dromore as a reason for calling the election and said also that he felt the DUP should have selected someone else. However, one of the reasons the election was forced in Dromore was because the UUP didn’t feel that they should be told by the DUP who an “acceptable” candidate was.
It was contradiction-riddled incoherent nonsense, but if you feel the need to take the lead from that then so be it. Maybe you can sit down and plan how to re-take East Donegal into the Union together or some other mad plan.
“He was right to say that the DUP were putting forward a young inexperienced candidate whose personal circumstances make it unlikely that he will be able to serve the people properly.”
What’s wrong with putting forward a young candidate? Doesn’t everyone have to be inexperienced at some time? Those are the kind of nonsense arguments ‘well’ articulated by Kerr. As for his personal circumstances that would be a matter for him to explain to the electorate and let them judge. Or do you not believe the electorate are sophisticated enough to judge who they want to vote for?
“Oh and by the way I hear there a few more byelections coming up, should we oppose co-option their too.”
I doubt “we” will have the ability to… Unless you wish to tell us which Council you’re a member of. Apart from your own kitchen council that is. I won’t have the opportunity of opposing or supporting any. By the way its “opposing co-option there too!”
Basil Brush
The DUP vote in Dromore was decimated. Despite the big names, despite being in Donaldson’s back yard.
As for the UUP vote being down 7%. You neglect to mention that in the previous election the Alliance party didn’t stand, this time Alliance ran a very strong local candidate. The UUP core vote grew and it is getting stronger by the day.
Yes, the UUP did get transfers from the TUV and others. Expect to much much more of that.
The DUP having treated the electorate with contempt are completely discredited and will pay the price.
Bring on the elections.
interested
Armchair general, will you be canvassing in Enniskillen or just on Slugger?
Go on get out there and meet the people on the door!
Smithsonian
“The DUP vote in Dromore was decimated. Despite the big names, despite being in Donaldson’s back yard.”
All possibly valid points – however, today is a new day and you seem to be relying entirely on people taking the same view of the wider political situation in August/September 2008 as they did in March 2008. It also relies on the people of Enniskillen reacting in the same way as the people of Dromore when there is the real posssibility their new Cllr will be a Shinner.
It may happen, but it really does appear that whilst the DUP may have had a wake-up call at Dromore, some other unionists have gotten all misty-eyed and nostalgic about it and have built it up to something it may never have been.
“As for the UUP vote being down 7%. You neglect to mention that in the previous election the Alliance party didn’t stand, this time Alliance ran a very strong local candidate. The UUP core vote grew and it is getting stronger by the day.”
The Alliance candidate may have had a fact. However, it is entirely impossible to in measure any “core” vote and how it grew or didn’t grow. That’s just speculative sh*te which too many Ulster Unionists seem to be betting the proverbial farm on when calling the election in Fermanagh.
Just stop replying to Smithsonian. He may think he is bigging up the UUP but all he is doing is making himself and his party foolish, profiteering from a man’s death.
interested
How do you know it is just speculative sh*te?
You might be right about Dromore but what is the best way to find out? A series of byelections.
Oh and although there is always the possibility of losing the seat to others, it won’t change the balance of power on the council, and it is just possible that the SF vote will be split too.
Elections are the only reliable poll and my guess is the people are pretty unhappy with the DUP.
Okay fair enough that the Alliance ran a candidate for the 1st time in Dromore but the point is that if voters where returning to the UUP then the UUPs vote would have been far higher. Yes the DUP vote was decimated I dont deny that but it appears that the DUPs vote went to the TUV not the UUP.Also tell me how you figured that the UUP core vote grew that is impossible to tell in a 40% turnout.
Smithsonian
Better an armchair General than a Lodge Room Loyalist!
Basil Brush
Well the the core vote usually turns out in a by election, that’s why they call it a core vote.
You can do a number of interesting calculations with the Alliance vote etc. The UUP obviously lost them to the Alliance (since they had a candidate standing)but the the UUP vote did not collapse. They must have got them from somewhere. That somewhere being the DUP.
The fundamental point however, is that Nobody gave the UUP chance in Dromore, nobody thought the TUV would transfer to the UUP in preference to the DUP and nobody predicted that the entire political landscape would change after Dromore.
Expect more and better results from the UUP as they actually stand up and fight. There should be no co-options in current climate.
Bigger Picture
Seriously what is all this nonsense about profiteering from a man’s death? Cllr Dodds passed away thus leaving a council seat vacant and a glaring need to fill it. What is wrong with seeking the democratic will of the people, regardless of how we got here. Harping on about profiteering merely smacks of desperation and a desire NOT to seek the will of the people. To the man on the street, the UUP may look foolish for all sorts of other reasons, but going to the electorate to ask them to excise their franchise… never foolish.
PB
To answer your question in brief – because a co-option would have reflected the political will of the electorate when they voted in a full election to fill whatever number of seats there are in Enniskillen DEA. In a by-election only one seat is contested, which will probably fall to Sinn Fein, thus giving Sinn Fein two/three years of representation in the council chamber which in a full election they would never have.
Furthermore, Bertie Kerr never objected when Sinn Fein were co-opting someone onto the council before, it’s only when a fellow-Unionist was seeking to get on that he kicked up stink. That says a lot about his consistency.
The issue is that Bertie Kerr happily co-opted a DUP and SF Cllr respectively onto Fermanagh District Council in situations were they resigned. Both could have gone to a by-election like Dromore but did not.
Therefore to say that all he, or you, is wanting to do is to let the will of the people be expressed is downright hypocritical and quite frankly only tries to cover up the despicable act he perpetrated. Therefore I think the profiteering comment is fair comment.
Anyway F_d pointed all this out above. So next time I would appreciate it if you actually read the blog before penning some, highly moralistic magna carta inspired tripe trying to protect civil liberties by allowing a vote, when all you have done is hand a seat to Sinn Fein.
WARNING
I realise by-elections tend to bring out the worst in political animals but there are rules and practices to be followed on the site. Play the ball not the man. Plus no guessing games or claims who other commentors are – respect the identity/nick they use and respond to the views expressed.
CARDS will be issued hereafter.
Smithsonian
What did I dish in order for me to take “it”? I have pointed out that a Queens student could clearly spend time representing the people of Enniskillen…. you chose instead to hurl insults. Yes this is a political site not a playground as you seem to think it is. Perhaps you would prefer a “wedgie” to a serious discussion. I seriously hope that you hold no ambitions for political office I don’t want to read any UUP policy paper on “wet willies”.
Although I would prefer to see a Nationalist gain….why dont the DUP give a clear run to the UUP and as say they want a clear run at the next one. If they cant sort out Council seats how will they get agreement on Assembly/Westminster ones where the stakes may be higher.
Interested, and whoever else, I am not Smithsonian.
And Mike C, don’t you think that residing on a day to day basis within 100 miles of your electoral area would be a reasonably good idea? I think a current Carrick DUP Cllr was on Larne DPP for a while, which is fair enough. But Belfast and Enniskillen?
Thomas Hogg seems a very odd choice all round.
Michael
Any DUP person would have been subjected to your bile. Stop pretending your objections are to Hogg as an individual.
Whatever you think.
I agree that it is not ideal Michael but given the limited amount of time a student actually stays in Queens, it is entirely feasible that the greater proportion of his time could actually be spent in the constituency. As I think interested pointed out he could in fact spent more time dealing with constituents than those councillors who are employed full-time within the constituency. Personally I am urprised that the DUP decided to go down the route of a 20 year old as I am personally of the view that someone should have some experience of life before they get involved in politics… in that way they can brin something to the debate. However, I undestand that he went through a selection process with a number of other people and his association thought he was the best boy for the job.
From all accounts I don’t think he can be criticised for lack of interest, work or intelligence. I think the distance issue can be overcome…. it is only for a year and he culd conceivably be residing in the constituency most of the time durin that period. Someone has criticised him for being ambitious…. can that not be levelled against most politicians?
His lack of life-experience would be the only drawback I would consider as primarily relevant. I don’t believe Cllr Kerr was really doing the people of Enniskillen a service when he objected to the co-option.
‘The issue is that Bertie Kerr happily co-opted a DUP and SF Cllr respectively onto Fermanagh District Council in situations were they resigned.’
Posted by Bigger Picture on Jul 08, 2008 @ 04:41 PM
Bertie Kerr did not feel that Hogg would be an acceptable councillor. We will see soon enough whether the people of Enniskillen agree with him, I suspect they will.
”The Ulster Unionists have made a major error here in calling this by-election. They have cost Unionism a seat in the face of Sinn Fein in Fermanagh.”
Posted by Queen’s Unionist on Jul 08, 2008 @ 02:24 PM
Not neccasarily, what many people seem to be forgetting when saying the seat will go to SF and accredating the Dromore election to transfers, is that transfers will apply in Enniskillen. Before complaining about three unionist parties think of the positive effect this will have on the overall unionist vote and think to whom those parties will transfer. Transfers will stay inside unionism and with probably having a majority (over nationalism) I think unionists have every chance of retaining this seat with an Ulster Unionist councillor.
Emmanuel
That frankly is nonsense. In order to come close to that result you would need a 100% transfer rate and following your logic maybe we should run five or six different Unionist candidates in order “increase the overall Unionist vote” by making sure every crank and gadfly has someone to vote for. Grow up. You know full well that a three way split practically guarantees SF will take thise seat. With two Unionists running it makes it an uphill climb and even with a single candidate it’s no better than evens.
Mike C
Michael Shilliday is just bitter because the UUP folks in Queens got on better with Hogg than they did with him. As for his studies etc. I did a degree in Geography at Queens (graduated with a First) and was still able to work 26 hours a week. This is a red-herring of an issue put up by Ulster Unionists to cover over their gifting of a council seat to SF.
Blackmouth,
The nationalist vote will also be split, in Enniskillin there are two SF and two SDLP councillors. With the DUP fielding Hogg I reckon there vote will totally collapse, this should push the Ulster Unionists way out in front. The TUV and the DUP will bring out voters the UUP could not reach out to. These voters will then transfer to the Ulster Unionists over the nationalists.
How exactly have I been dragged into this?
The UUP folk at Queen’s ran rings round Hogg. If he took this as being friendly, maybe that says something.
I’m not denying that he’s pretty good at organising man power, he clearly is. When it comes to leading them however………that figure of three decreases rapidly.
The big plus for the Lundy party about this minor bye-election is it takes attention away from the more important Euro election.
Who is their candidate going to be? who is going to volunteer?
Why are MSM “journalists” and equally banal “alternative media journalists” not probing them with this question?
Do most of the young Lundy party members nowadays attend Queens or [edited by moderator - play the ball]
‘Another issue, remember all that UUP bleating about the costs of a by-election in Banbridge’
Posted by Snooper on Jul 08, 2008 @ 06:33 PM
Remember all that DUP bleating about how they were right to give the voters a choice.
Stop giving Crawford credit for my posts
Maybe once Hogg loses out on this seat he’ll go for Europe no one else wants to lose the DUP’s european seat to Allister.
Emmanuel
I thought the DUP didn’t have a European seat to lose. I think the DUP will regain their seat, the question is: will the TUV vote split result in Sinn Fein topping the poll? That will scare all unionists.