Slugger O'Toole

Conversation, politics and stray insights

Question time

Wed 4 June 2008, 5:03pm

Quick bit of blatant plagiarism from Mark Devenport’s blog, but I liked “Stormont spy’s” list of questions:

1. Will Sinn Fein fail to put forward McGuiness?
2. If it does happen will Robinson and McGuiness shakes hands?
3. Is this being done to bring Gerry Adams back to the spotlight?
4. What happens to MLA’s pay? Will it be suspended of the Assembly is dissolved?
5. Does the Executive members give up their departments to direct rule ministers?
6. What can Gordon Brown do?
7. Does the Civil Service go into “purdah”?
And finally to leave you with this… Who has more to lose? McGuiness or Robinson? My pension is on Robinson. Firstly he will lose seats to Sir Reg. Secondly he will lose seats to Jim Bowen (Allister). What happens then? What if Sinn Fein is the largest party? Will Robinson sit down in Government as a deputy?

What I think:

1: Probably, but I remain to be convinced that they’ll push it to an election.
2: Pretty unlikely, it’d be madness on Robinson’s part.
3: Not a bad call.
4: The same thing will happen as in normal election period circumstances – but only if SF refuse to nominate after the 7 day period I think.
5: I’m pretty sure not. I know that in Westminster during an election there are no MPs, but there are ministers. I assume it’s the same here.
6: Threaten to legislate over the DUP’s heads. The 42 day detention vote is looking more and more safe for him, so he will be more disposed to ignore the DUP.
7: No idea.
8: I couldn’t possibly comment.

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Comments (83)

  1. Shore Road Resident says:

    Isn’t it the largest party of the largest designation that gets the first minister post, under St Andrews? Therefore, isn’t there really very little chance of a SF minister?

    Q3 throws up some interesting motivations though…

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  2. Michael Shilliday (profile) says:

    No, the DUP had that changed in order to blackmail the electorate into voting for them.

    http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2006/ukpga_20060053_en_3#pt2-pb2-l1g8

    (6) If at any time the party which is the largest political party of the largest political designation is not the largest political party—

    (a) any nomination to be made at that time under section 16A(4) or 16B(4) shall instead be made by the nominating officer of the largest political party; and

    (b) any nomination to be made at that time under section 16A(5) or 16B(5) shall instead be made by the nominating officer of the largest political party of the largest political designation.

    Ie the largest single party gets First Minister regardless of the designation.

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  3. DC says:

    Go on Alliance… :-)

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  4. buggerhed says:

    The DUP will lose seats to TUV first and foremost (potentially up to 6 or so). If, and it’s a big if, Sir Reg makes any gains then that will be do to STV, not support for his ‘party’.

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  5. Dave says:

    If Sinn Fein did become the largest party in NI after an election, then gaining the right to office of FM would be a meaningless victory, since it is highly unlikely that Peter Robinson would accept the office of DFM in the current acrimonious political environment. Ergo, devolved administration would fail, with Plan B being no more radical than restoration of direct rule from Westminster. The other option is reform of the system of mandatory coalition – something that Peter Robinson is in favour of. Success – with this twist of fate – is failure for Sinn Fein.

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  6. ZoonPol says:

    The ironic thing is that we know now that the DUP put power before principle so it would be akin to SF cutting off its nose to spite its face – and saving the DUP’s face as well.
    Let’s forget about wheather the St Andrew’s Agreement is a new deal or the GFA for slow learners and ask the real question:
    Do we need 2 pro-agreement unionist parties? What really divides them apart from personalities?

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  7. It was Sammy Mc Nally what done it says:

    Robbo makes a statement, Marty signs the book, P and J before 2009, Ireland to beat the All Blacks on Saturday – I’m off to my very good friend Paddy Power for odds on an accumulator.

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  8. Alternatively, it’s just the kids rolling on the Supermarket floor, screaming and yelling, because they haven’t had enough attention in the last while.

    Which is why everyone outside the select circle of “friends” believes this is all sound and fury signifying precisely … nothing. By the end of the week the tizz will be over.

    And, no: this time there’ll be no sweeties at the check-out.

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  9. Driftwood black spot says:

    Competition time.
    Does anyone know how many unionist parties there have been in the last 40 years? Basically any party or political group with the word “unionist” in the name.
    I would be impressed if anyone could name them all.

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  10. Sammy Morse says:

    Does anyone still think that Gerry isn’t doing a solo run?

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  11. Dewi says:

    All gotta promise not to google mind

    1) DUP
    2) UUP
    3) UKUP
    4) PUP
    5) United Ulster Unionist Party
    6) Vanguard summat Unionist Party
    7) Was there a NI Labour Unionist Party?
    9) Popular Front for the Liberation of Judea Unionist Party
    10) TUV

    Is that it?

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  12. observer says:

    All gotta promise not to google mind

    1) DUP
    2) UUP
    3) UKUP
    4) PUP
    5) United Ulster Unionist Party
    6) Vanguard summat Unionist Party
    7) Was there a NI Labour Unionist Party?
    9) Popular Front for the Liberation of Judea Unionist Party
    10) TUV

    Is that it?

    Posted by Dewi on Jun 04, 2008 @ 03:03 PM

    NIUP

    UUUC

    Popular Unionists Party

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  13. Dessertspoon says:

    “9) Popular Front for the Liberation of Judea Unionist Party”
    SPLITTERS!!

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  14. Spanishroomscrumpy says:

    All fine and well but what happened to the Raytheon post that was right above this story 45 mins ago?

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  15. Shore Road Resident says:

    Somebody crapped on it then threw it out the window.

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  16. Dewi says:

    Popular Unionist Party – Kilfedder right?
    And that UUUC was when they called all the by-elections?
    Can’t remember NIUP though.

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  17. Horseman says:

    Dewi, observer,

    1) DUP
    2) UUP
    3) UKUP
    4) PUP
    5) United Ulster Unionist Party
    6) Vanguard summat Unionist Party
    7) Was there a NI Labour Unionist Party?
    9) Popular Front for the Liberation of Judea Unionist Party
    10) TUV

    11) NIUP
    12) UUUC

    And;

    UDP
    Independent DUP
    UUAP
    WRUC

    I know the word ‘unionist is not in their title, but ‘ulster’ is a good proxy;

    UCDP
    UIM
    UIV
    UKIP
    Ulster Party
    Ulster Third Way
    UPRG

    And lets not forget …. The Alliance Party ;-)

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  18. Sammy Morse says:

    You’ve all forgotten the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (party leader Brian Faulkner).

    And lets not forget …. The Alliance Party ;-)

    Hey horseman, I hear the BBC are looking for a replacement for Folks on the Hill that’s actually funny, want to apply?

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  19. Dewi says:

    Horseman – if u r changing the rules then also Consevative Party….

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  20. Horseman says:

    Dewi,

    if u r changing the rules then also Consevative Party….

    That mightn’t actually be a rule-change. Weren’t they (maybe still are?) the ‘Conservative and Unionist Party’?

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  21. Horseman says:

    Or, as you might know it: the Plaid Geidwadol Cymru
    ;-)

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  22. Dewi says:

    WRUC???

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  23. Horseman says:

    Women Raising Unionist Concerns (WRUC) formed September 2005 in the aftermath of the Whiterock parade and subsequent rioting. I don’t think they are a party as such, more a ginger group. They’ve disappeared completely, of course, as do 99% of these type of groups within a few months.

    The original challenge said ‘parties or political groups’ so I reckoned this one counted.

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  24. Dewi says:

    Weren’t they (maybe still are?) the ‘Conservative and Unionist Party’?

    Good point – you get a full mark. (Plaid Geidwadol ac Unoliaethol Cymru in that case!!!)

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  25. Dewi says:

    Thank you. Missed the political groups thing in which case yon can add:

    Orange Order
    Indie Orange Order
    That Royal preceptory Black thingie
    All the alphabet soup thingies.

    Driftwood – it’s your fault – needed a better definition when we started !!!

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  26. Horseman says:

    There have also been a few parties or groups with the key-word ‘loyalist’ in their title, but without breaking the rules and googling I cannot remember them.

    There was also (long, long ago … ) a Unionist Liberal Party. Seems like an oxymoron now!

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  27. RSR says:

    Would be an interesting situation, as Michael mentioned, if Robinson ended up having to be deputy to McGuinness.

    It’s a distinct possibility if an election occured, the DUP may have nine seats more than SF at the minute, but given the evolution of the TUV and the reprecussions the Dromore bi-elecion have had, the DUP could easily find themselves in second place. Let’s face it, SF are hardly likely to drop too many seats, in fact i would say they might gain some, the likes of West Belfast springs to mind.

    Time will tell I suspose, an interesting few days lie ahead.

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  28. Dewi says:

    “Let’s face it, SF are hardly likely to drop too many seats, in fact i would say they might gain some, the likes of West Belfast springs to mind”

    Another seat in West Belfast – now that would be a pshephological achievment……

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  29. Surely, Dewi @ 03:58 PM, any political group that formally recognises partition and accepts the link with GB is technically “unionist”?

    That allows in the Tories (with or without the “and Unionist” appellation).

    It also brings in NILP and even the “Belfast Communist Group” of the 1930s, which sailed a different tack to the CPI in Dublin — the split into a separate CPNI came after the CPI suspended itself in 1941. If we really want to mock (and in this case, surely, we should), H.C. Midgley moved seamlessly from being an “Independent Labour” candidate in 1921 to NILP and flirting with Stalinism (as Chairman of the Belfast United Front in 1933), then, via his own “Commonwealth Labour Party” (formed specifically to accept partition) so that in 1943 he was into Brooke’s “reconstructed” Unionist Government. By 1957, the People’s Harry was telling the folks of Portadown what they wanted to hear: “All the minority are traitors and always have been traitors to the government of Northern Ireland”.

    The alphabet-soup of various factions of Unionism goes with a whole cess-pit of other shifting allegiances.

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  30. Dewi says:

    Malcolm – fasinating – I reckon if the same exercise was conducted with “Labour” or “Socialist” over the last century you’d almost get as many groupings !!!

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  31. Driftwood black spot says:

    Dame James Kilfedder’s UPUP (Ulster Popular Unionist Party). Didn’t Cedric call himself the NIUP? Yes Faulkner as UPNI. There was also the Official Unionist Party under Gentleman Jim Molyneaux.
    It would be easier to just add numbers eery splt eg Unionist Party 65 or something, or maybe New Unionist, and doesn’t anyone remember a certain Protestant Unionist Party in days of yore!
    Could someone sum up with what we have so far and we can agree a definitive list, including 1 man bands.

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  32. Dewi says:

    Driftwood – absolute clarity on rules please ! (Word “Unionist compulsory or not ??)

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  33. Dewi says:

    So far:
    1) DUP
    2) UUP
    3) UKUP
    4) PUP
    5) United Ulster Unionist Party
    6) Vanguard summat Unionist Party
    7) Was there a NI Labour Unionist Party?
    9) Popular Front for the Liberation of Judea Unionist Party
    10) TUV
    11) NIUP
    12) UUUC
    13 UDP
    14) Independent DUP
    15) UUAP
    16) WRUC (If acceptable under your scientific criteria)
    17) UPUP
    18) NIUP

    Have they have to have fought elections to count ?

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  34. Dewi says:

    19) Unionist Party of Northern Ireland
    20) Conservative and Unionist Party

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  35. Driftwood black spot says:

    Missed, or typo meant Faulkner’s UPNI at No.11.
    Did the Protestant Unionist Party morph in to the DUP? and presumably the *Official* Unionist Party (OUP then known) became the UUP. Yes the word Unionist has to be there I think. Pretty sure we havent exhausted all titles yet though.

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  36. Dewi says:

    21) UPNI
    22) OUP
    23) Protestant Unionist Party

    Sorry – I think there was an NIUP….as well as UPNI….not sure though.

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  37. I admit to being impressed. I thought such trivia was my personal prerogative.

    As we disappear further into the shrubbery, can I be assured that the name of the “Ulster Unionist Council” survived/was briefly revived? This then, wisely, added “United” in front of the most unfortunate phonetic abbreviation since the British Fascists (who, of course, inserted “Union of..”). I’m pretty sure the BFs had the odd shirt or two in NI, and would qualify as the BUF were it not for the forty-year rule.

    Hey! that reminds me that Mosley (Dad, not petrol-head son of the curious sexual predilections) retreated to somewhere in Ireland after 1951. Any sightings in “Unionist” circles?

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  38. Horseman says:

    I thought such trivia was my personal prerogative.

    Nooooooo …….

    Given the climate (both sorts), can you wonder that there are so many anoraks (both sorts) in (northern) Ireland?

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  39. Turgon (profile) says:

    Can I propose a religious version of this game:

    Name the different Protestant dominations in Northern Ireland. My rules are that only churches with two or more congregations count, so for example I will not really accept Whitewell.

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  40. Driftwood black spot says:

    Does anyoneknow if Bill Craig is still alive?

    I think Vanguard Unionist was deffo a party, IIRC, they even had their own Vanguard flag. I wonder if Lord Trimble has one in the attic?
    And I seem to remember someone in the Republic standing as some sort of Unionist at 1 time.
    Just 1 more thing, was Cedric ever in Bob’s UK Unionists?

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  41. Horseman says:

    Too easy, Turgon, since the Census provides a handy Excel table of the top hundred or so.

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  42. Horseman says:

    Does anyoneknow if Bill Craig is still alive?

    He is, but we shouldn’t have long to wait.

    He has not been in the public eye since 1982, and continues to reside in Bangor, County Down.” So sayeth Wikipedia.

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  43. Driftwood black spot says:

    Turgon, is Whitewell not Church of God? Or Hizbollah in Arabic.

    I think Pastor Mcconnell has several ‘metropolitan tabernacles’on the go. But it may be on a franchise basis like KFC.

    What denomination was Pastor Jack Glass? Now there was a true believer!

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  44. Horseman says:

    Driftwood,

    And I seem to remember someone in the Republic standing as some sort of Unionist at 1 time.

    There would have been lots, certainly in earler days. I think even Kilfedder or someone was born in County Leitrim. But I think you’re thinking about Conor Cruise O’Brien, who was an active member of the UKUP until he was ‘retired’ for telling the truth – i.e. that unionists would be better off starting to negotiate with Dublin now, rather than waiting too long and seeing their numbers dwindle.

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  45. Sammy Morse says:

    I think there was an NIUP….as well as UPNI

    Yes, there was. Two very different beasts.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UPNI

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Unionist_Party

    I loved the NIUP’s stange, crypto-fascist, clenched fist logo.

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  46. Horseman says:

    Driftwood,

    Or did you mean someone standing in the republic as a unionist? I don’t know if anyone has done that since partition, though several known unionists do stand. David Brewster used to be very interested in some small group in County Donegal who (he felt) represented the ‘oppressed Prods’ of that bailywick.

    And, of course, there is the ambivalent Senator Ross, rrepresenting TCD.

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  47. graduate says:

    Think you’re also forgeting the UUCP- United Unionist Coalition Party. Currently has a fistful of members in Ballymena, a few in Limavady (disaffected DUP cllr called Leslie Cubitt- yes, brother to Lyle in Ballymena) and the odd (very odd!) one or two elsewhere.
    On churches you’ve got me,I’m just a humble Jedi Knight (on the last census anyway)

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  48. Driftwood black spot says:

    So Cedric and co split from the UKUP? Fell out with Bob over a “principle”. Anyone see a pattern here?
    NIUP wiki lists them as right wing, LOL!

    Interesting on the UPNI wiki, that Vanguard was the Vanguard Progressive Unionist Party,or VPUP.
    Another amend to the list Dewi.

    Horseman, I’m sure someone stood for the Dail on a Unionist ticket, but can’t be sure.

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  49. Driftwood black spot says:

    From the UPNI wiki-

    *In 1981 the party admitted the weakness of its own position during the local government election campaign admitting that power sharing on the 1973 model was no longer a viable option.*

    So it goes….

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  50. Jonathan McCullough says:

    I think the Protestant Unionist Party were the precursor to the DUP although as I recall the name was also used by Cllr George Seawright after his expulsion from the DUP. His wife stood for the same party after his murder.
    Wasn’t there also a Volunteer Political Party, which although not having Unionist in the title was the political wing of the UVF and certainly a unionist party. Didn’t win any seats but I think it was Ken Gibson, a former UVF leader, who stood for them unsuccesfully in elections.
    “Vanguard summat Unionist Party “, I think was correctly called Vanguard Unionist Progressive Party.

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