“Poor Edwin”
So says Jim Allister on last night’s H&M.Many will say that one cannot draw too many conclusions from a local government by-election. And they’re right. I worked a bit on the Larne Lough DEA by-election in 2004, occasional Slugger commenter Andy Wilson won the election, yet Roy Beggs still lost the following Westminster election heavily. Yet there are significant differences here (one being that Andy had the good forethought to become a father during the campaign). The preceding council election in Larne Lough had the UUP well ahead of the DUP, the following council election UUP and DUP were roughly equal. In Dromore we overturned a significant DUP lead from 2005 to be neck and neck in 2008. DUP strategists were telling UUP canvassers they would be amazed if we failed to win in Larne. In Dromore, the media wrote us off as an afterthought, and to an extent, they have been embarrassed every bit as acutely as the DUP.
I wont go into any where as much detail as fair deal and Turgon have, I think that in particular Turgon’s analysis covers the bases that I would have, had I been quicker off the mark. My only further thought is that we could meander into a position where those who believe that power sharing is in the medium term best interests of Northern Ireland vote UUP, those who don’t vote TUV, and the question of “what are they for again?” turns from my party, to the DUP. And wow but don’t they deserve it.
The next major election is Europe 2009. The DUP’s fox of standing two candidates has probably been shot by a small by-election in Co Down, and the broader Euro election looks now like it could be a three way fight for two Unionist seats. People will cry Unionism will lose a seat as a result, I don’t believe that it will. I reckon the next Euro election will be a much more exciting affair following yesterday, and all because the DUP aren’t today the invincible electoral machine they were thought to be at the start of the week.
“Allister was his usual mocking self.”
Which is all he offers, along with other extreme unionist *commentators* also of independent means. Unfortunate thing is, fools follow fools.
I wonder how long before JA has a distant relationship with some harder individuals, who will, this time, not get so close as to see the colour of his wallpaper.
Buggerhed, for a change, has a point. SF topping the poll is a daft argument put out by the DUP to scare unionists into voting for them. Jim’s problem dismissing this next year is that he spent 2004 spreading it. Nonetheless it means nothing at all so long as Unionists keep two seats. And I reckon its unlikely that Unionism will lose a seat provided unionists transfer to unionists. But with the DUP joined at the hip with SF…….does it matter?
Am I better than Bono?
These guys slightly better
And this is wonderful
And this the absolute best Before Slugger and You Tube I had a life.
And this the absolute best Dewi – cer i’r gwely nawr.
Am I better than Bono?
No. A little more volume is necessary, a little less llais llygoden.
I reckon its unlikely that Unionism will lose a seat provided unionists transfer to unionists
Fair enough. I calculated (assuming only two Unionist parties) that in the final count (without achieving a quota) the vote for the UUP would exceed that for the SDLP by 4,500 votes. With an error margin of 10,000 votes either way. Which is another way of saying it’s too close to call.
With three candidates it is more problematic and dependant on transfers which work best from extreme to centre and not the other way round. In the unlikely event of Jim Allister being the second most popular Unionist candidate, this could spoil Unionism’s chances of a second seat because he would not attract as many transfers as the UUP candidate does.
However, looking at the Dromore voting in the cold light of dawn I would urge caution. Keith Harbinson’s 700 odd votes doesn’t really amount to much once you subtract the votes cast by his mother, his aunties and the various women around town who fancy him. It is a little early to be making the expected rise and rise of the TUV part of our psephological calculations.
Over 2500 at Saturdays pro-Irish march in Belfast.
Thanks Edwin.
I really can’t believe Edwin Poots can get away with what are basically racist comments.
He and his fellow mono-cultural, anti-multilingual neanderthals must be some of the most ignorant and unreasonable government officials in Europe.
You think they just arrived off a boat in 1620s, or crawled out of some dark hole in southern Alabama.
“Buggerhed, for a change, has a point.”
A little personal Michael don’t you think? You big daft twit
Sorry 4 all those posts – alcohol and Slugger do not mix. Nice to read Darth’s stuff – perhaps there is hope. Edwin can’t be culture minister though – it’s a joke – he lectures GAA on inclusivity – totally absolutely unbelievable.