Dromore from the green side
The Dromore by-election victory for the UUP has led to much discussion on Slugger and elsewhere about the significance of the TUV vote. Is it a threat to the Executive? Can TUV deliver a stronger deal for Unionism? What were the reasons for the TUV vote?
Of course, there are numerous unionist posters on this site with an informed opinion of the thinking within the various branches of unionism. So here’s my take on the significance or otherwise of today’s result from a non-unionist perspective.
Firstly, to answer the questions above. The TUV vote, while providing food for thought for the DUP, shouldn’t affect the running of the Executive nor the Assembly. The DUP- like everybody else up there- has committed itself to working the institutions and is fully aware that there is no alternative path to the future. Sure, the DUP may be tempted to sabre rattle over policing and justice, or indulge in more petty sectarian ranting against the Irish language, catholic schools or even the GAA (all traditional favourite targets), but in the end up the party will know that the deal has been done and that every step forward is one taken with Sinn Fein a la Victims Commissioners and Long Kesh/ Maze (which answers the second question.)
In that regard, this vote should send the message to the DUP that the type of reckless goading of nationalists indulged in by far too many of their MLAs should be replaced by more measured comments, in full knowledge that future deals the party will have to make with Sinn Fein will merely provide the TUV with ample ammunition to target the DUP. The party needs to begin educating their base as to the need to respect the nationalist identity, so that when decisions are taken down the line their support base does not react to TUV complaints that the DUP are changing their position.
From a nationalist perspective, the TUV vote merely confirms the continued existence of a chunk of the unionist electorate which has set its face against power-sharing with their neighbours and against recognising the divided loyalties that exist within this community. The furore over the ‘Town Hall’ symbols illustrates starkly the need for the DUP to begin legitimising the Irish nationalist identity within their own community. It’s hardly surprising that this vote should surface, given that the former home of the TUVvies was the DUP, which spent far too little time preparing and educating their activist and electoral base for the volte-face the party performed in 2007 regarding power-sharing with Sinn Fein.
The result today suggests that Sinn Fein may be much closer to becoming the largest party in the six counties than most observers would have believed. The Sinn Fein candidate comfortably outpolled the SDLP candidate in an electoral area (Dromore) which has traditionally been strong SDLP territory- indeed, the SDLP even outpolled Sinn Fein there in 2005. Taken with the comfortable by-election victory in Moyle in December 2007 (which received very little media coverage) the result confirms that Sinn Fein continues to strengthen its electoral appeal within nationalism as the SDLP’s slide into the margins continues.
The DUP are now in a battle with the TUV that will peak during the Euro elections next year, when, ironically, a Sinn Fein poll topper may steal the thunder of the rival unionist parties and commence a battle for the top spot in the next Assembly election.
RB was the original Slugger O’Toole. Look up the wikipedia entry for Slugger for further details.
Sammy,
NI was a failed political entity. ROI was not exactly a successful one till recently.
Which brings me to Malc…
Historical perspective triumphs again. Methinks we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the separation of Planter and Gael, a separation reverse-paralleled in Lancashire and Lanarkshire.
Old memories in old clubs on old streets. The Orange past was bright, not the future.
I mean, when Dev’s grandson is paying the lecky bill….
Of course Robert B is a troll. But you gotta hand it to him; he is very amusing and takes quite a few in. He pops up here from time to time.
“…and all this will achieve is a further weakening of the Unionist ‘position’”
- and, indeed, a weakening of the Union.
This could, of course, be achieved by an overturning of the devolved arrangements and a reversal (in Unionist terms) which would be represented by “Plan B.”
Are they so fucking stupid that they cannot see that what they want would be the end of what they want?
Surely this result is the final nail in the Maze stadium coffin?
“It has since been known as Slugger O’Toole, and in comments zone at least retaining some of the intractable qualities of Tim’s old sockpuppet drunk.”
Did you write thish Mick?
Are you accushing us of being drunksh?
Ever since the time of Captain O’Neill the extreme right of Unionism, up till recently represented by the Big Fella, have been able to see off any hint of liberalism or reform with judicious sabre rattling and cries of ‘Lundy!’ They would eventually get their way because the main Unionist Party was so terrified of their vote haemorrhaging away at the Right that they would cave in. And as long as the Unionists were a majority, the whole province was dictated to by the fanatical portion of Unionism, a minority of the total electorate. In more recent times the DUP have found an argument to justify this stance: they are the majority of the majority.
This, fortunately, is no longer the case. Unionism stands for about 48% of the electorate. It may have 50% of the Assembly seats (50% +1 counting the sole Loyalist) but it could not expect to call an election and retain this advantage when the new constituency boundaries come into force. The fatuous argument of Unionism, we are the majority (in an area only brought into existence so that they can claim this status) is no longer available.
There are now so many Unionist parties available each can find its own ground. TUV may put the fear of God into the DUP, but it has limited power with the UUP and none whatsoever with Alliance. Alliance is not frightened of losing its electors to the TUV.
Nevertheless the prissy fit still seems to be the order of the day. I suppose there are sufficient people who just do not realise that the DUP does not have the voting power to dictate what it wants, and blame it accordingly.
We must thus expect that Right-wing Unionism will, in the near future, attempt to get its way by non-electoral means. Expect the discovery of ‘spy-rings’, conveniently managed by informants still blackmailed by their RUC controllers, as with Denis Donaldson.
“non-electoral means”
Where are all those Ulster Resistance guns again?
Not far from Dromore, perhaps.
‘We must thus expect that Right-wing Unionism will, in the near future, attempt to get its way by non-electoral means.’
As I said there’s always an alternative path
‘Are they so *#@* ing stupid that they cannot see that what they want would be the end of what they want? ‘
Probably not the adjective I would use
. More a case of the none so blind as the lemmings in the rearguard who somehow feel that out there in the front is a leader who knows where he’s going even if they don’t want to think about it too much .
‘.NI was a failed political entity.’
Was ? The jury I would think is still out on its present status of uncertain political recovery .
‘ROI was not exactly a successful one till recently.’
Wrong . The Republic was a successful political entity . At least from 1932 when power was transferred democratically from the Free State Party to FF and subsequently transferred back to Fine Gael coalitions in later elections .Perhaps you meant to say ‘economically’ in which case you would have been more correct .
This is a great election result!
The tables are turning in the UUPs – the party of Carson and Craig – favour once again.
I have always said that voters would acknowledge the work of Trimble and Empey one day and turn back to support the Party. If only Trimble has lived to see the day!
This is a great day for the party and for Ireland!
Reg should now work towards winning back all the DUPes Westminster seats.
We have got a really good chance of taking back South Antrim, Upper Bann, East Antrim, South Belfast, Fermanagh South Tyrone, East Londonderry and keeping North Down with a large majority. Hell lets work for North Antrim too!
Given our broad community based we could well take South Down and Newry and Armagh too!
This is such a result which I think will be characterized across the North.
Do loyal ulster unionists say “the north”?
Or do you mean Antrim?
“If only Trimble has lived to see the day”
Er… do you know something we don’t?
“Given our broad community based we could well take South Down and Newry and Armagh too!”
…West Belfast as well?
SW
>>At least Paisley has recognised that gets you nowhere. Unionism needs to be more confident, pragmatic, self-assured, and the DUP need to sell this deal instead with some conviction instead of running scared of TUV. Can you imagine SF/SDLP tearing into one another with such intensity? No way, their electorate and political leaders are too savvy, too intelligent for such actions<<
Whilst agreeing with much of your analysis here, I differ on the savvy bit stopping Nationalist leaders going at each other so. The real point(which Dewi) has touched on is that Nationalist leaders would not fall out over sharing power with their neighbours, this seems to always be at the basis of Unionist intransigence. Yet Unionism, or some Unionists as Willow quite rightly points out really fails to understand the basis of democracy in that; It is no longer solely in their gift to decide whose/what terms that the six counties will be governed.
JoeC
Before knowing for sure that RB was ‘just having a larf’ I used to feel a wee bit guilty,(even though he was so pythonesque) that perhaps I wanted him to be voicing the thoughts that many of us suspect Unionists harbour but so few actually voice. Who knows, perhaps he does lol!
I think LUU is a troll of the same calibre as Robert. I just missed it at first because it’s rare to see two trolls in one thread doing the same act. Refering to this country as the North was a dead give away.
sad as it is…..roberts views still mirror the thoughts of some in the paramilitary loyalist community…..
the same Neanderthals that look back with pride to Gay dog adairs drug riddled reign…
Has anyone here ever read John Kennedy Toole’s fantastic novel A Confederacy of Dunces? Did Robert not come across as the unionist version of Ignatius J Reilly?
Actually if you’ve never read it then take this as a very strong recommendation. Its pure deadly!
Twinbrook. refering to Johnny Adair as Gay Dog is insulting to the gay community. Are you actually questioning his sexuality or is that a typical childish insult that a clueless teenager would come off with?
Can the TUV get enough of the overall vote in the assembly elections to be relevant ?
If they get 15% of the assembly wide vote they might get one seat. If they take it – welcome to the club.
If they don’t – what is the point ?
What is the thinking ?
Or is it mainly an emotional exercise ?
Take the recommendation of The Third Policeman @ 09:09 PM with some caution.
A Confederacy of Dunces is a superb creation, agreed. My guess is as few will read it at one go as mange Finnegans Wake.
It is a “comic” novel in the sense that the excruciating embarrassment of others can be funny. If one hasn’t previously climbed the foothills of The Ginger Man, it might be advisable to go into training.
However, à chacun son goût (thus avoiding a possible infraction of quotidian French).