Rumours from Dromore..
I can’t confirm these figures yet Looks to be confirmed now, but Porlock in the comments zone here has claimed had the first round count at Dromore as Updated below And Newsletter now reporting similar figures Update BBC reporting a UUP win! [added link]
1st Round : DUP 1069
UUP 912
TUV 739
All 357
SF 350
SDLP255[NL figure is 290]
Green 59
Adds From UTV report
MEP Jim Allister of the TUV said he was delighted with the result. He said the result was “an unhappy Valentine`s Day for the Chuckle Brothers”.
Alternatively From the Belfast Telegraph report
UUP deputy leader, Danny Kennedy, described the result as “a St Valentine’s Day massacre for the DUP”.
Update Again via Porlock
SDLP and Green eliminated
DUP 1074
UUP 937
TUV 742
SF 507
ALL 479Now into third count with transfer of Alliance
And
Alliance transfers done
DUP
11271074It appears the original figure may have been correct – 1127
UUP 1119
TUV 801
SF 567SF now eliminated
More
Latest: after SF transfer
DUP 1178
UUP 1194
TUV 828TUV now eliminated
Final count appears to be
DUP 1508
UUP 1571
UUP win the seat.
Greenflag – spot on!
What price Sunningdale now?
The UWC strike was the biggest self-imposed disaster that unionism ever had.
Which politician played a large role in that?
The chickens have come home to roost but the fox is in the henhouse.
Oh My. What do we do now?
Around 2,000 fewer people voted in this by-election than in the 2005 election, so people should remember to figure this into their analysis.
THE WINNERS – in terms of votes
TUV 739 votes up on 2005
Alliance 357 up on 2005
Green 59 up on 2005
THE LOSERS – in terms of votes
DUP 1,931 votes down
SDLP 457 votes down
UUP 272 votes down
PSF 79 votes down
THE WINNERS – in terms of %
TUV 19.8% up
Alliance 9.5% up
PSF 2.3% up
Green 1.6% up
THE LOSERS – in terms of %
DUP 21.2% down
UUP 6.9% down
SDLP 5% down
Overall unionist votes were 1464 down and 8.3% down. Nationalists were 536 votes down and 2.7% down. Others were 416 votes up and 11.1% up.
Right. Just spoke to the count officials.
On elimation of Alliance (stage 3) the DUP went to 1127.
Therefore on eleimiation of SF the DUP received 51 votes from SF which was less than went to the UUP and more than went to TUV.
As I said, a rogue figure above.
Pete,
If you need the number for Dawn in Dromore to check this drop me an email, otherwise take it on trust and put the stage 3 DUP figure back to your original.
Noel: “I’ll leave aside all that oul florid crap about murdering people and blood-stained hands and whatnot”. Yeah, thanks, but do you know what? I don’t think I will, if it’s the same to you. Sadly I’m going to remain one of those bores bothered by murder, florid or otherwise. As for the rest of your, uh, argument:
Yawn. Wake me up when the inevitable happens, as it’s taking an awfully long time to get here. But it’s a good thing you can rest assured that the future is inescapably on your side – it must make the present so much more comforting.
Still haven’t dealt with my point – surely you’re not in THAT much denial?
‘maybe now the people will wake up before its to late. ”
Too late for what ? 60% of the people refused to be woken up for long enough to bother to vote !
‘Go on Reg start talks with Jim to give the people a party that the people of our wee country can rally round’
Talks ? Talks ? Talks I mean whats the bloody point ? No talks has always achieved more in NI than talks as you should know from your history !
‘ and maybe undo some of the damage that has been done’
More likely to do even more damage !
‘to see if we can stop the rot’
The ‘Unionist ‘ political tree has been rotting from the top down since the 1960′s . The rot has now reached the roots .
The real winner of this electon was Tyrone Howe
If there is now to be a third force in Unioinst politics the UUP and DUP will surely form a series of electoral pacts as there are no significant policy differences.
It is a bit like post civil war ROI with FG and FF both accepting partition and FF pretending to be more Republican than FG but with the crucial difference that the Unionist electorate will surely not tolerate having a split between 2 similar parties which resuly in giving SF the advantage.
The indulgence on the Nationalist side of having 2 parties with same policies will probably continue for a bit longer.
@John East Belfast
What does my position on the Union matter. Head up my arse? playing the ball much, feeling a little bitter as usual or can you loyalists not take a beating with any grace? The Alliance Party’s stance on the Union is well known and if my stance was any different I’d not have joined the party.
This is a thread about the farce of Dromore, as others have pointed out this is not victory for anyone, because it’s the tax payers who have had to suffer the cost of this election. Let me point this out once again the UUP have held what was theirs already, they have no victory here. The DUP are the real losers here, flying in full steam ahead they have lost and lost badly considering how many big guns in their party where working on this, their electorate have spoken as Jeffery admitted through gritted teeth
@Snaz
Sure this was an election for one seat, I didn’t miss that, the fact that roughly 9.5% of a staunchly unionist town voted for us as first preference means that in the next proper council electionwe should take a seat quite comfortably. Unlike many unionists on this site I try and look at things in the long term.
@Mark McGregor
For my part I enjoyed what work I did on this election and I look forward to the next one. I may have a job to pay the bills, but a political activist is what I am.
Danny Kennedy was on Talkback saying that Unionist voters were coming home. Looks like the UUP are as poor at reading election resluts as they have been for this passed 10 years.
So for the likes of Danny lets take it really slow
The percentage share of the DUP vote went down just over 21%. TUV vote was almost 20%.
Today’s result shows that there is a potentially huge protest vote within the Unionist community. Before spring 2009 when there is likely going to be a Westminster election the DUP need to address this issue. Dr Paisley’s “retirement” would help greatly.
You haven’t made a point. You’ve merely, in common with so many other fantastically minded nationalist posters, asserted that, ‘the future’s green/everything’s coming up (easter) lillies’. Honestly, try living in the real world. You know, the one with partition and the Union and minister Martin at Stormont, bought and paid for by London. Cheer yourself by all means with your ‘yets’ and your ‘interims’, but let’s not try kidding the rest of us. Oh and good psychobabble use of ‘denial’ – here’s another piece of it right back at you: projection.
By the way, the UUP vote was down 6.3% on their previous result. Coming home my foot!
Also as Willowfield points out the Unionist vote is down for the by-election but would probably not be down as much in an election that had more significance. I’m not saying that this election didn’t matter, it seemed to matter to the DUP for this last few weeks.
“Right. Just spoke to the count officials.”
Thanks Mark – makes a bit more sense.
“Jim Allister, a much, much smarter cookie than most of the twerps we elect anywhere.”
No, he isn’t. He has been very indiscreet in the past. I expect some stories to emerge about JA in the very near future. Watch this space.
Yeah, ‘indiscretion’, well know enemy of intelligence. Please, could someone paid to spin for the DUP not come out and play today?
The TUV is engaging in a futile exercise.
At the risk of exaggerating the importance of a by-election in Banbridge, this election may demonstrate again how the DUP has weakened unionism.
Their cynical strategy of posing dishonestly as opponents of the GFA in order simply to “smash the UUP” certainly worked in terms of gaining party advantage, but it has not worked for unionism. Within the unionist electorate there is now a constituency of people who are hurt and angered at the DUP’s deception. Many of these people will either: (a) not vote anymore, or (b) waste their votes on TUV and split the overall unionist vote. That’s not good for unionism.
The defeat of the UUP has also weakened unionism because the DUP is not capable of appealing to voters outside the Protestant volk, and the UUP is now so weak that its capabilities are severely limited.
Blackmouth: You forgot that the UUP had a swing to them from the DUP of 7.15%, if I understand the formula correctly. Whether this actually means anything outside of psephological statistical analysis is another matter. But that never stops anyone from claiming a good result.
So Jeffrey’s warning of having to crush the TUV at this election before they got started seem to fallen on deaf ears. Sorry, was it just fighting talk to gee up their supporters and workers? Either way, it doesn’t seem to have worked.
The DUP, however they try to spin it, threw everything at this election – all the big names, all the media coverage and they still couldn’t win it in Jeffrey’s heartland. From 50% to 28%: that’s over 40% of a drop of their support. But Paisley has said on the BBC News that this isn’t a bad result, as they only lost by a few votes to what was originally a UUP seat. Nice try Big Man but your Party already had 3 of the 5 seats and only forced an election because you thought you’d walk it.
Just think Mr Robinson / Mr Donaldon: you could’ve co-opted Carol Black, saved the taxpayers of Dromore some money, saved giving your newest rivals a platform and saved yourself the embarrassement of losing the seat.
The smile has been well and truely wiped off the face of the Chuckle Brothers – Ian, the clock’s ticking…
I wonder how many of the party’s canvessor’s souls the big man is going to send to purgatory for this monumental failure?
LMAO!
YOU OWE ME YOUR SOUL!!!!!
DR PAISLEY,
PETER ROBINSON,
JEFFEREY DONALDSON!
YOUR MAN TOOK A HELL OF A BEATING!
sorry couldnt resist that one!
I note Ian Paisley’s unbelievable statement that this was a UUP seat and his party did well in topping the poll on the first count .
I also note that Paisley with his now characteristic flair for losing votes made the statement from Dublin ( great PR ) .
This result if repeated across would end the DUP’s grip on the assembly with Sinn Fein replacing them as the lead party .
This result is already sending shockwaves through the DUP and will almost certainly result in move to eject Paisley Sen and Jnr who are very obviously electoral liabilities .
Expect a stalking horse candidate to emerge to oppose Paisley Snr followed by a delegation of Robinson led MPs telling him his time is up .
Enoch Powell’s maxim that political careers end in tears is about to be fulfilled in Ian Paisley .
This is the beginning of the end for Ian Paisley’s political career .
Moi? Paid to spin, or even spin for free for the DUP? LMFAO!
Great comment from Danny Kennedy he is calling this result a St Valentine’s Day Massacre for the DUP .
LOL
Some times, just sometimes the pigeons come home to roost, and it seems the first few have settled on their perches over the FM’s room in Stormont.
There are a lot more hovering outside just waiting for the oportunity to land. Let us see who is first to move towards the window to let them in.
A good day for those who believe hypocrites and those who are economical with the truth deserve to reap their just desserts.
And no I do not support TUV or JA and do support the GFA.
so this was a council seat election? shit.. i thought it was a general election. A- level politics lessons on by elections spring to mind
So..let me get this straight: one power sharing unionist defeats another power sharing unionist and yet this is somehow supposed to be a victory for a unionist who is opposed to power sharing with SF? Catch a grip.
Frustrated democrat you make a very valid point . What has motivated such a strong unionist backlash is the conviction that Ian Paisley has deceived his people .
As one who well remembers his clearcut commitment to oppose Sinn Fein’s entrance into government I can only conclude that he was telling porkies .
Many unionists feel betrayed by Ian Paisley and are increasingly angry with his chuckle brothers strategy for government .
The vote to remove him in his own church was an indicator of wider unionist discontment – the Dromore result is proof of that .
Paisley politically is now on borrowed time .
Of course its a success for the TUV, those numbers would have them winning seats on Council and in Stormont.
Other winners: (big winner)UUP won the seat. SF improved their lead over the SDLP
Losers: DUP, lost the seat, percentage and couldn’t wipe out their new challenger. SDLP drifting further out of contention against SF. Greens a pure rubbish result.
50/50: APNI, improved on last time they ran but SF are polling ahead of them and are picking up more transfers from the SDLP.
Youse are all wrong. We won!
Mark, sorry my outgoing e-mail was on the blink last night and was too tired to fix it. Will be in touch later today. Suffice to say, the Shinners cleaned the SDLP’s clock in Ballyward, but the SDLP led in every box in the rest of the DEA.
Ahem – so, you think democracy is a system where the Shinners and DUP would be given a virtual monopoly of Assembly representation on 56% of the vote? Yeah, right!
Okay, I’ll sign up for that A level course: in large political units, small polls matter less than is commonly supposed, in small political units, however, they loom larger.
The DUP: called this by-election (which was madness, as it was always, in such an echt-Unionist area, going to provide a platform for Allister); threw everything they could at it; *needed* to stop the TUV insurgency before it got going (they’ve learnt that at least from their own history); and are anyway at the moment in a febrile state as the poor man’s Eden can all too easily see that the far, far poorer man’s Churchill’s has clung on much too long for any future good he will do.
Here’s the skinny – for the Punt, every day he lets Paisley chuckle on with Mart is another few hundred chips steadily added to Jim Allister’s pile. So now the onus is on Robinson to dispatch Paisley because it’s in his own self-interest to do so. This has never been the case before; the factors which make it the case now are not going to change for the better from Robinson’s standpoint – Paisley being, at the very least, politically senescent, and without a doubt, being politically a busted flush (ie even if he now somehow wanted to row back on the chuckling, his credbility is completely spent with would-be TUV voters, so that flip flop wouldn’t secure its aim).
Result = Robinson knifes Paisley sometime after Easter. And unlike the wretched Agreement, that really wil be a good Friday. Hear that sound? It’s Enoch laughing in heaven.
Firstly, sincere congratulations to Carol Black. Her party put some very hard work in the campaign, and won fair and square. Representing people at any level is a privilege which some take seriously and others less so – I’ve little doubt she will join the former group, and I wish her every success.
Secondly, I would like to congratulate my own party’s candidate, David Griffin, and his campaign team. By my calculations, that vote would be sufficient to pick up a seat in an area where we had been totally absent for 10 years, and the vote has been pulled from all corners. I know David received a warm reception and put in an astonishing effort, and I trust he will join Carol as a local Councillor (in whatever Councils we have) very soon.
Finally, I concur with Willowfield‘s note of caution about reading too much into such things, and thank him for his interesting analysis otherwise.
Much, much more democratic than an APNIer getting to cast a vote that’s counted 3 or 4 times, whilst a DUP voter’s, or a Shinner for that matter, counts just the once. The fundamental flaw with PR is that it is predicated on the absurd notion that every vote cast should, somehow, contribute to a winning outcome for the voter who cast it. Transfers being a notion remotely cognizant with democratic voting is up there with ManBearPig being Norn Iron’s next great social ill.
50/50: APNI, improved on last time they ran but SF are polling ahead of them and are picking up more transfers from the SDLP.
????? Mark, I’m trying not to spin, but I can’t see how this was anything other than a good result. We beat SF (357 is more than 350), more than doubled our previous best result, and have a clear platform for a council seat. I’m not sure how 10% in what is probably the weakest DEA in any Assembly seat we hold is a bad result?
Mark
Sammy will know more about this than me, but my analysis of the SDLP transfer favouring SF is in fact that a few more people than I expected transferred their first preference directly to Alliance.
But again, Willowfield‘s note of caution applies!
but my analysis of the SDLP transfer favouring SF is in fact that a few more people than I expected transferred their first preference directly to Alliance.
Despite agreeing with all the notes of caution, given that the nationalist vote was down 2% despite SF’s superior GOTV skills, and the Nationalist vote in the town itself was well down, I’d guess that’s what happened.
I wonder if the UUP will be so giddy with relief that Reg Yoof will restart their website: http://youngunionists.org.uk/ ? ‘Soon’ has become a very elastic concept over there.
Ahem:
* one’s vote doesn’t get counted three or four times, it gets counted once but can transfer to maximise its efficiency
* leaving voters unrepresented is a bad idea
* your pathological obsession with the Alliance Party is boring
ahem:
yes. i hope the young unionists do get their blog up and running asap. we can be treated to more shillidayisms! i love it – even from the floor of the count centre (or with his ‘ear to the ground’) we get this:
“I have to say, I called this completly wrong. Given the circumstances, this is an outsranding result for the UUP. Apparently we’re 16 votes ahead after the SF transfers. I’d say the TUV transfers will pull Paul Stewart home, but he might as well have lost.”
Posted by Michael Shilliday on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:15 PM
i mean really. could you make it up?
What obsession with the Alliance? Seriously: I’m opposed to PR – you really don’t need to be so touchy. As for your, ‘black is white’ argument – “one’s vote doesn’t get counted three or four times, it gets counted once but can transfer to maximise its efficiency” – pull the other one. The vote not ‘transferred’, for whatever reason, is counted once, the vote cast for an unpopular candidate, then ‘transferred’, in ever more desperate search of a more popular candidate to end up being tallied against, *is* counted more than once. You can be as pompous as you want about this, indeed, you can engage in as much elision as you want (cf. FPTP leaving voters ‘unrepresented’ – it doesn’t, it merely reflects reality, which is that when you vote, you are *not* guaranteed your candidate(s) being elected), but it doesn’t change what PR does. And that’s have some votes counted rather more often than other votes.
OK, it may not be up there with Barney Fitzpatrick’s win in the Skerries By-Election or Anna Lo’s win in South Belfast, but i reckon we ain’t heard the last of David Griffin.
And wouldn’t an Ulster win tomorrow against the Dragons round off a great week.
Watchman,
My comment about Jim Allister’s project imploding still stands. It mightn’t have happened today but it will do. I still firmly believe that his supporters are there for too many different reasons.
You were reluctant to dig out some of my other comments like, as I already mentioned, to Turgon where I mentioned that the only certainty with this election is that someone would attempt to portray the result as something it wasn’t. Maybe I was wrong because it would seem that most people are attempting to portray it as many different things at once.
Frankly if Jim Allister believes that all those people voted TUV in Dromore yesterday because they want devolution torn down tomorrow and because they care about his points on mandatory coalition then he is a fool. There was a protest vote and that message should be taken seriously – no doubt about it.
Its slightly laughable to see the Ulster Unionists treat it as some massive revival. Yes they won the seat, but with a reduction in the % of their vote – not as big a reduction as the DUP, but a reduction none the less. It came down to the interesting transfer pattern of those people who voted TUV.
At the end of the day the TUV and DUP vote combined was reasonalbly close to the 2005 % result so it would appear that a chunk (yes a sizeable chunk) of people who voted DUP last time decided to go elsewhere. Its a matter of working out why they went elsewhere and whether itsa permanent move or one which could be reversed. I’m not sure whether to read the % of TUV increase and DUP decrease too literally. I’d assume on a higher turnout that the DUP should do better and on a bigger province-wide election the TUV clearly wouldn’t have been able to have Roy Gillespie and other assorted individuals from across the Province there. I don’t dispute that DUP people from across NI were there, but clearly a province-wide election will favour parties with bigger election machines and more people to work with.
In my view this wouldn’t have been a particularly better day had the TUV transfers moved slightly differently and the DUP candidate won the seat by half a dozen votes. That wouldn’t change the real result and the UUP would do well to take note of that – whilst still wishing Carol Black all the best for her time on Banbridge Council.
Interested,
Nappies, toys, rattles and dummies!
123 TUV we throw stones at the DUP (IRA SF ALLIANCE)…………..
There is no spin large enough for this one!
By my calculations, if this vote were to be repeated at a full council election, the result would be:
DUP 2
UUP 1
TUV 1
Alliance 1
DUP and SDLP losing 1 seat each, and TUV and Alliance gaining 1 seat each.
But remember there are 2,000 missing votes since the last time!
Should the 4-28 post be true, we have a TUV councillor in a medium sized town in County Down. Hardly Earth-shattering. Moreover, hardly a threat to power sharing, either at Executive or indeed, Dromore level.
The second most unfortunate thing about today is the incessant repetition of the impact on the smile of the “CBs”. No, I cannot bring myself to rpeeat thefull phrase any more. It wasn’t even mildly amusing the first time I heard it.
The most unfortunate thing? – having to hear JA’s horrendous gravelly voice over and over again. BTW, why didn’t HE stand?
Paisley politically is now on borrowed time.
Gerontologically speaking as well, surely?
Jo
1. He’s an MEP
2. He doesn’t qualify living in North Antrim
3. He’s an MEP
It’s usual story here – the vast majority of people, who voted for some degree of compromise, are going to be dictated to by a small bunch of headbangers and bigots.
Welcome to Northern Ireland.
Yes, there is poetic justice in the Paisleyites getting screwed in this way – after all we have had to take this from them for the best part of half a century.
Gerry Fitt will be laughing his head off right now and even Brian Faulkner, in somewhere rather warmer, will be smiling.
But schadenfraude, even at the expense of the liars of the DUP, does not a policy make.
Any county players from around Dromore? I know that North Down has a bit of hurling in Portaferry but never heard of anyone of significance around Dromore.
the DUP should never have built this election up so much – even if they had taken the seat with a small majority they would have taken a hit to the TUV who could claim a great result for their first go out. surely this result will secretly please some DUP members who want to see the back of papa doc? both the mccrea/ simpson end and robbo.