By-election background
While we wait for the by-election result from Dromore, where the TUV have put forward a candidate to challenge the DUP, the BBC’s Mark Devenport has picked out the last local election figures from 2005 via Nic Whyte’s invaluable Ark.
Thanks to Nic Whyte’s site, here is the last Dromore result from 2005.First Count:
Tyrone Howe, (UUP) 1304
Norah Beare, (DUP) 1292
Paul Rankin, (DUP) 870
David Herron, (DUP) 838
Cassie McDermott, (SDLP) 712
William Martin, (UUP) 580
Francis Branniff, (SF) 429Votes by Party:
DUP: 3,000 (49.8%), 3 seats
UUP:1,1841,884 (31.3%), 1 seat
SDLP: 712 (11.8%), 1 seat
SF: 429 (7.1%)Electorate: 9,542; seats: 5; votes cast: 6,119; spoilt votes: 94 (1.5%);
valid votes: 6,025 (98.5%); quota: 1,005
And from earlier in the campaign, the candidates this time
Think the UUP 2005 total should read 1884 not 1184. Apparently turnout about 38% (slightly higher than average for a council by-election.
ill try and get in thier first,
i can see the DUP taking the seat, i think that much is clear, but i think the TUV will take a quite a few votes, just enough for them to claim voctory, and enough for the DUP to claim they are not relavent,
the UUP will find themselves that they will get lot of transfers, and wont be totally wiped out,
on the Nationalist, given the location and the strenght of the campiagn put in by the SDLP, i believe they will SF hands down, with maybe more of a vote than last time,i believe the SDLP Youth were campigning last nite!
where was the Gerry Juniors?
You’re right, Mark.
Although the percentages are correct, the original figure is wrong.
I’ve corrected it here, Nic will, no doubt, update himself.
Looks like the DUP has been hit by TUV:
Provisional tallies from inside the count:
DUP 1100
UUP 800
TUV 700
All 300
SDLP 250
SF 250
Green 100
Porlock
Official Result
DUP 1069
UUP 912
TUV 739
All 357
SF 350
SDLP 255
Green 59
UUP might actually hold!!!!
Porlock
Can false teeth be gnashed?
Disaster for DUP. TUVs have taken 33% of their vote and they won’t get elected without TUV transfers.
The UUP should be well pleased their vote though down has held up relatively well in a bye-election they didn’t expect to win.
chairman Jim will be hard to listen to!
SDLP and Green eliminated
DUP 1074
UUP 937
TUV 742
SF 507
ALL 479
Now into third count with transfer of Alliance
Porlock
Red branch,
Please use a different e-mail!
People will think your me! lmao
exit chuckle brother snr stage left…
That has to be the highest transfer rate I’ve ever seen from the SDLP to SF – circa 60%. Along with being well ahead of them in 1st preferences, I’m sure SF are very statisfied with how their minor part in this election turned out. And we get to see the transfer rate from APNI to SF for a change too next.
APNI will put UUP in front – where did TUV transfers go?
Cuchulainn,
Where are the SDLP voters?????? Looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time but only yourself all of the time. ‘location and strenght of camapign’ vs Dessie Ward (who seems to run rings around all of the Unionist councillors on Banbridge). Interesting that so few SDLP votes transfered to SF.
This will now only get really inte4resting when we see where TUV votes transfer
lol, meh their u are, maybe i can blame it on a bad turn out! yea i think i will! lol
disaster for the SDLP vote, expected a lot better form the effort they put in, interesting to see the party response
Is this more proof that Robinson is not such a great strategist afterall?
BTW the current FM’s favourite nationalist isn’t doing him any favours either.
Someone please call Turgon and wake him up.
pith
maybe. Although Robinson doesn’t swan around his constituency with Irish PM waxing lyrical about the “North of Ireland”. Nor does he give the impression of political footsie being played with SF. If the DUP gain this seat then the TUVs’ stellar performance will hasten Robinsons’ elevation to the top job. Too cynical to suggest this is exactly what was hoped for?
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/Dromore-byelection-Traditional-Unionist-Voice.3773886.jp
Alliance transfers done
DUP 1127
UUP 1119
TUV 801
SF 567
SF now eliminated
Porlock
Everything boils down to TUV transfers
I think if this were an ordinary council election TUV would win a seat.
I await the result eagerly
Slight typo on Alliance transfer figures:
DUP 1074
UUP 1119
TUV 801
SF 567
LATEST: After SF transfers:
DUP 1178
UUP 1194
TUV 828
TUV now eliminated
Porlock
Porlock,
Your ‘official figures’ above puts the SDLP on 255, while the Newsletter is saying that they got 290. The latter figure is credible, given the transfers (all but 2 votes!?), and the seemingly high proportion of those transfers going to SF.
Could you confirm whether you or the Newsletter is correct?
Horseman,
Newsletter figure is correct.
“If the DUP gain this seat then the TUVs’ stellar performance will hasten Robinsons’ elevation to the top job.”
Sounds as if the First Minister should be expecting a visit from the men in grey suits. Do they still bring a bottle of whiskey and a pearl handled revolver? Probably more high tech nowadays.
1505 DUP
1571 UUP
Final count
Well done Basil
No Buggerhed, not well done Basil. It is quite clear that the result is reflective of nothing Basil has done. It is solely down to the defection of the self proclaimed political heavy weight Edward (who?) Hannah. watchout for his statement in tomorrows newsletter which will explain how with him all things are possible!!
Cuchulainn sorry to see the SDLP cheerleaders are as self deluded as ever.
SDLP are gone and here they have lost one of their few remaining bastions.
Time they adjusted to the new dispensation and worked with others. They are a small party with virtually no support and they will continue to shrink until they realise this and act accordingly.
Transferring votes to the party trusted and supported by most nationalists would at least put them in line for transfers that could save them a seat or two when the Sinners are elected and have surplus votes.
If they carry on like this they will be lucky to have a council seat left. Various SDLP’ers are desperately worried about their liveliehoods and their families are worried that they may lose the double jobbing.
They are so powerless now their are not even worth bribing anymore so what will they live on?
Suck it up – you’re getting nothing other than a Stoop MP in Derry next time out.
“Suck it up – you’re getting nothing other than a Stoop MP in Derry next time out.”
Have to agree with that
You have got to be kidding !!!!! Durkan could not win a raffle in Derry. If he manages to hang on in here it will be a very lonely existence as the last Stoop MP but no-one here expects that. Even SDLP Youth say that they need to unite with Fianna Fail if they are to have a chance at keeping the Derry Westminster seat.
Those in the know here though say that they could hold it if they let Helen Quigley through as she is the only councillor capable of making an impact for the SDLP. She was sidelined by the old guard for the assembly and that has probably sealed the party’s fate in Derry.
But nobody believes that Durkan can stand aside for a woman so it is unlikely that this will happen.
The Stoops outpolled the Shinners everywhere in Derry except Cityside in 2005.
In 2007 the SDLP vote rose, the Shinners’ fell.
I wonder if RSF will run again
this result will only heighten the dissatisfaction within the SDLP about the leadership of Durkan…
Doesn`t bode well for the chances of the SDLP in South Down…
unless off course the stoops take credit for Creation!
I think Fianna Fail should hurry up or there will be no SDLP to unite with. I can’t wait for the first FF candidate to come to my door.
‘Where have you been for the last 40 years?’ They remind me of tescos. Didnt want to know here when there was touble but now think there is profit in coming. Also do I give the brown envelope to the canvassers or do I have to wait until someone gets elected?
Actually SDLP vote in Derry fell by 2.4% from 43.4% to 41%
Sinner vote went up by 2.5% from 30.3% to 32.8%.
That was considered a good result as the Dissidents mounted a determined effort standing the mother of a hunger-striker and no-one expects them to get anywhere near that vote next time.
So the Sinners even if they stand still will improve on this (their highest vote ever) and given the divisions in the Stoop ranks in Derry and the open hostility to Durkan from old time SDLP members it is likely they will lose at least two seats to the Sinners next time out.
The Stoops losing their majority in Derry would be the final blow for them as they would have no power anywhere.
South Down is going Sinner, South Belfast is going DUP and Derry is likely to go Sinner unless the Stoops have the courage to dump Durkan and put Quigley up.
If, and it is a big if, this was replicated in an Assembly election then TUV could get 8-10 seats.
One swift does not a summer make but this is a high vote for a first time turnout.
SDLP pushed further down the pecking order regarding first preferences.
The many smug faces of unionism will be frowning or even smugger tonight.
I intend to set up the Real Really Real Unionist Party and merge with Republican Sinn Fein and go for a Jim Aliister-Ruairi O’Bradaigh version of the chuckle brothers. Any takers?