The DUP, their nemesis and Dromore
During the Second World War the Germans became obsessed on two occasions with capturing Soviet cities which arguably may not have been that important. Their failure to do so changed the war. The non historians can look up the two links: (1) and (2). The historians can point out how poor my analogy is.
There is a small town in Northwest Co. Down. The largest Northern Irish political party appear to have become obsessed with winning a council seat there and in the process may do themselves significant harm. Not as much as the Germans in the Second World War but in the DUP’s case the risk seems much more unnecessary.
When Jim Allister left the DUP he was dismissed as a flat earther and a man of no political importance; when he formed the TUV they were dismissed as a group of flat earthers and of no political significance. We now, however, have the spectacle of the DUP, fighting tooth and nail to defeat this supposedly trivial, irrelevant bunch of “flat earthers” for the Dromore council by election, even being willing to send two MPs into the fray at the very start.
Whilst no election should itself be seen as trivial; had the DUP not made a great fuss over this council seat they might very well still have won it. Had they won it they could have sailed on and at the same time pointed out that the TUV were irrelevant. Had the TUV won they (the DUP) could (quite rightly) have pointed out that it was a single council by election; had anyone else won they could again have dismissed its relevance.
Now, however, if the TUV get any percentage showing at all the fact that the DUP have highlighted this election will make people scurry off and work out how many seats that would equal at the main council elections or at Stormont. Provided the TUV vote is better than Bob McCartney’s percentage in the area at the last Stormont elections it will be seen as progress for those unionists opposed to the agreement. If the DUP loose to the UUP (or conceivably Alliance) it will be seen as the DUP making a big push yet failing. If, however, by some chance the TUV win then this election (realistically irrelevant in total Northern Ireland political terms) will be seen as a major set back for the DUP.
Peter Robinson has always been seen as politically very astute and cunning; possibly not the greatest intellectual or thinker but the mastermind behind the practical destruction of the UUP in 2005. How then has Robinson, a genuinely good political tactician allowed this to occur (or to allow his minions and spin doctors to allow this to occur)?
One thing which might be suggested is that this obsession is because Robinson knows that he personally has helped create the TUV. It is widely accepted that it was none other than Mr. Robinson who went and persuaded a barrister who had once been a DUP politician to come back to the political fray. Hence, it is Robinson who has created his own nemesis by bringing Jim Allister back from the political wilderness.
We all know that Dr. Paisley cannot remain leader of the DUP forever. Robinson has been his most successful deputy and is still the obvious heir apparent. However, in reactivating Allister; Robinson has shown an error in political skill and cunning which is most unlike him. This will not have been lost on the DUP members who will elect Paisley’s replacement. As such, not only do the DUP wish to destroy the TUV before they can get going but Robinson needs to utterly eliminate the threat to, not only his own party, but also his own leadership ambitions. Hence, Robinson must ensure a total defeat of the TUV candidate. That helps explain the apparent overkill on one council by election. That decision may turn out to have been his next political misjudgement.
can any of the TUV posters (young Morrison for example) clear something up for me?
I’d be interested to know, in light of TUVs declaration of support for traditional family values, if the membership is denied to those living in sin, engaging in sex before marriage etc etc. Are these issues mentioned on the application form for membership?
I must say if it is, fair play to TUV for their moral dimension
Keegan’s afro
Maybe TUV have nicked Gordon Brown’s “moral compass”!
Dear all,
Having been in the Czech Republic’s Capital Prague since monday I find all this very amusing!
But having read the posts that are here i must say that i cant dissagree with the other blokes posts! He has made a great wee contribution in my absence!
As for posters who are quick to jump and name people on this site I can only refer the same to the accusations which they made about me and a certain protest in Hillsborough, which i was not at!
These people will know who they are, and i know who they are also! These people would do well to get their facts straight before throwing accusations around in public.
As for my knowing Mr Harbinson, yes i certainly do, and i will certainly be out on the streets of Dromore to support him! As for him being in my Orange sorry treachery unit he’s not unless he joined at the last meeting or is transferring in Feb but i havent heard about it.
Its also important to note that it was not my “name sake” who raised the fact that Mr Stewart, who i also know well, is a publican in Dromara. So perhaps a little less of the coffee breaks is needed for you young duppers on the hill!
And for the imformation of you young duppers, and yes i know who you are, I am fully employed and not free-lance at the moment. But there has always been plenty of work for me to do as some people in this country actually do work for the good of their community rather than sit and chuckle in Stormont, or say even Belfast city hall, with unrepentant IRA murderers!
My my haven’t the Dundela boys come quickly back on this website after a week of selecting publicans and trying to cover up yet another embarrassing IPJ move. What were they doing in the meantime? Perhaps writing to every member in the country about a small by-election in a DUP heartland begging for their support. Funny behaviour for a Party not worried by a bunch of mavericks that represent no-one.
I don’t know Brian Moorhead so can’t comment that you think he’s a ‘nutter’ Parlour Dweller, but I wasn’t aware that he was going to stand – the only thing I heard on the matter was a challenge from some DUP Councillor. Why, however, the DUP think that the TUV should listen to them on who their candidates should be I’m not sure. There’s many DUP supporters that put their names to letters written for the Newsletter who haven’t stood for election: maybe the Party’s chief letter-writer doesn’t hold that much sway.
And maybe, just maybe the Dundela Avenue crew are feeling a little worried now that the so-called nutters of TUV managed to find a more respectable candidate than they’d hoped. Their actions seem to portray that.
Well done Andrew – how to persuade us all you had nothing to do with the earlier comments – come on within an hour or so to deny it.
Wee hint: don’t post your email address in the adress bar in future.
BTW, they have internet access in the Czech Republic these days I’m sure – they’re terribly advanced you know!
Andrew
He’s not a member of 1845?
Why is any post not in support of TUV considered to be from a payee of the DUP. I certainly am not on the DUP’s payroll or even a member but cannot support the TUV position. Not least because it’s leader/chairman or whatever was in support of what the DUP did, although not at the time they did it.
What are the policies of the TUV? Many of it’s supporters have different views and ideals, some even advocating an Independent Ulster. It appears the only thing that most TUV supporters have in common is their opposition to Paisley and party.
How will Jim Allister ensure that my children and their children have some say over their own goverance?
Dont forget the Green Party! The Candidate Helen Corry recieved over 1000 first preference votes in the March assembly election and this was the first time the Green Party ever stood in Upper Bann. She will get a good vote I am sure! You can see her election press release here http://www.greens-in.org/article/1015
It will be a contest between UUP and DUP for the most part.
We have TUV, UUP, DUP and Alliance all unionist parties.
SDLP and Sinn Fein Nationalist.
Green Party Neutral.
When you look at past voting in dromore it is a unionist stronghold so Sinn Fein and SDLP will have no chance.
It will be an interesting contest between Alliance and the Green Party.
Paul
Good luck waiting for an answer to that. TUV are very good at telling us all what they wouldn’t do. Where’s the beef? What would they do? I genuinely want to hear their alternative strategy. Harping back to a golden age that never was is hardly a sustainable strategy.
I see the TUV have been hit with their first scandal early on with one of their limited number of Cllrs, David Tweed being convicted for being a drunk driver:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7196903.stm
“I’d be interested to know, in light of TUVs declaration of support for traditional family values, if the membership is denied to those living in sin, engaging in sex before marriage etc etc. Are these issues mentioned on the application form for membership?
I must say if it is, fair play to TUV for their moral dimension”
Had this been the case I know of one leading TUV member who would have been excluded.
This is pretty funny, the DUP running a full on black ops operation on Slugger over a Council seat of the like not seen since Martin Ingram retired (was stood down) or the SDLP at every single election. They must be very worried to be putting this amount of effort into smear.
BLA
Wee hint……… anyone can post here with anyones e-mail address and user name! Unlike you, when im on holiday i have far better things to do than post here!
I had to be told on friday that i had apparently been posting all week.
But hey folks like you never let the facts get in the way do ya?
Who did Davy Tweed get to defend him in court?
Anyone know if he has contacts in the legal profession who might have done a freebie?
“And for the imformation of you young duppers, and yes i know who you are, I am fully employed and not free-lance at the moment. But there has always been plenty of work for me to do as some people in this country actually do work for the good of their community rather than sit and chuckle in Stormont,”
Andrew,
What do your employers think of your rather unsubtle linking of Ulster-Scots culture and politics?
plz identify any link made? Im afraid your paragraph selection makes no link.
O my o my such bickering between gentlemen that were once such fraternal brothers!
At the end of the day guys outside of this site not many people have given the level of scrutiny and debate over a by-election that has gone on here. The only people that will have any say is the people of Dromore and outside of that area it hasn’t got the attention that many people on here would like to think it has.
It’s easy to see why Turgon, Darth etc are here trying to stoke the flames and fair credit. But all I have heard is that the DUP are running scared, are they?? Apparently they have had plenty of people out canvassing including local MPs and MLA’s sounds like a good campaign. I don’t think it is running scared of the TUV by bringing out the big names of the party for a paltry by-election, most MP’s canvass for cllrs considering that local and westminster elections are at the same anyway. It is not unusual. I wouldn’t dismiss the TUV but i would be calling the DUP stupid if they sat back, did a UUP and let the TUV gain momentum, better to come down on it hard now, rather than give Jim H Allister QC another headline and potentially more voters.
Bigger Picture,
If you are not senior in the DUP why are you not? If you are can you not reign in some of your younger and more enthusiastic members? Unlike them you are able to analyse the situation and do not feel the need to resort to sock puppetry and silliness every time the TUV are mentioned or Robinson criticised.
I take your point on deploying of members in the campaign but I would still suggest, however, that what we are seeing is overkill which could easily become a no win for the DUP (if it has not done so already). I still have my suspicions that a lot of the need to crush the TUV now is because of Robinson’s albeit accidental role in its creation, the DUP leadership’s understanding of this and the potential proximity of a leadership election.
Had Robinson not persuaded Allister back into the fold yes there is no doubt there would have been some resignations after St. Andrew’s but Robinson must bear much of the responsibility for ensuring that the opposition has an articulate efficient and dangerous leader who cannot in seriousness be dismissed as a flat earther. You and I know that as do those who lead the DUP whatever the sock puppeteers may think.
Anyhow regards,
PS I still have the cave for you when you want it.
A question for historical buffs. Wasn’t Dromore part of the old Iveagh Stormont constituency where the hardline Independent Unionists in the 1950s almost unseated Brian Maguinness, Brookeborough’s liberal Minister of Home Affairs? Might just be the place for an upset.
Turgon
Thank you for your kind words. It is always nice to be complimented even more so when it is from those who you may not see eye to eye with on every issue and i share the same respect for you as well. However you flatter me in terms of my age as I would presume that most of the other people on this site are actually older than me and in terms of the party wouldn’t give me a second glance! I’ve just been blessed with good genes
I take your point about Robinson and would probably agree that he needs to stamp the TUV out to hide his mistake. I’m not sure about overkill in the campaigning side, I haven’t been down bit from what i hear it has been the local branch plus MLA’s and MP’s from Upper Bann and Lagan Valley which is fair enough as any PR manager would say to put your biggest assets forward in order to sell yourself- I think that is all fair. However if Gregory Campbell or Willy Hay are seen down there then I will take that statement back!
I’m not sure how much Robinson is to blame for the Jim scenario. There were other senior MPs who were involved in that decision. I believe that the rise in Jim’s profile in recent months has been the Paisley factor at Stormont. You and I have long debated how the DUP should go about the workings of Government. An approach that would have meant keeping the head down and delivering for the electorate while at the same time keeping the chuckling to an 8 May mishap would have shown the electorate that while the DUP is in with the Shinners they are also working hard and putting issues first. However the Paisley’s have proved me wrong on both counts. With Juniors supposed willingness to be involved in every dodgy deal in the country and Sr’s unreal attitude towards McGuiness and the OFMDFM situation they have given Jim more than enough ammunition to stir people up.
The best example has happened over the last few days. Robinson pulls a rabbit out of the hat in the budget but instead of playing this up the DUP is forced to defend Junior on his latest misdeeds.
In terms of Dromore the DUP will win the seat, they have 3,000 votes there, and with Jeffrey factor down there no matter what the rest of the country thinks of him, they will poll a very good result. Keith Harbinson will provide a test however as he is a very credible candidate maybe a shot across the bows of the DUP may not be a bad thing to waken certain people up??
and also,
thanks for keeping the cave door open for me as always the situation is being continually assessed!
If true that a Dromara publican is standing as the DUP candidate what is the leader’s views?