Sinn Fein, their faltering game and one big European chance for glory…
Catriona Ruane probably has the stiffest test of all Sinn Fein’s new ministers. For that reason, I’m not sure that Frank’s analysis suggesting she’s performed poorly alongside her colleagues Conor Murphy and Michelle Gildernew, even if that was the impression given by northern delegates at a recent ‘closed door’ meeting in Dublin. Neither have faced the challenge she does in carrying forward actionable reforms in an area that is both prominent and which splits neatly down the Nationalist /Unionist divide. Nevertheless, he is less than impressed with the total impact of Sinn Fein, both on the governmental front, or in the decidedly partisan way they have dealt with public order problems such as the killing of Paul Quinn. He’s less than impressed with the response of the northern leadership to failure in the south:
It is telling that despite Fine Gael’s success Kenny fired Phil Hogan and a question-mark remains over Kenny’s leadership. Rabbitte and the authors of the Mullingar Strategy in Labour have been cast aside. Sinn Féin’s upper leadership remains intact and the move of key northern activists like Declan Kearney into positions of authority in the party in the South suggests that Adams, having listened to the opinion of Southern members for the last six months has decided to ignore it and continue to centralise control in the mistaken belief that someone other than him, and he alone, is responsible for the party’s disastrous election campaign.
The party’s response to the Paul Quinn murder is being distinctive by its very repetition:
The murder of Paul Quinn brought out the standard Sinn Féin approach of blackening the name of the victim with accusations of criminality that seem unproven. What seems more clear is the eager desire among their political opponents to hi-jack the Quinn’s case to attack Sinn Féin, but they would have no campaign to manipulate were it not for Quinn’s murder and how Sinn Féin handled it.
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He finishes with a useful corrective to Vincent Browne’s view that Sinn Fein is likely to be pro the EU Treaty in the upcoming referendum:
Ahh Vincent, take thy head out from the Mahon Tribunal and read a paper. Sinn Féin’s party leadership, and McDonald & Adams in particular, have been making clear their intention to not simply oppose the Reform Treaty, but to lead the opposition to it. Most recent press statement from the party on it is here. What makes Browne’s error all the more mystifying is that the former Sinn Féin European Director Eoin O Broin now writes for his magazine. This referendum campaign gives Sinn Féin the opportunity to portray itself as the ‘real’ opposition to establishment centrist politics and even the possibility of fighting a winning campaign, which would be a massive boost to a party going into Local Elections in 2009, and European Elections where only a miracle will save their seat in Dublin.
In truth, Sinn Fein has much more in common with UKIP on Europe, since both are concerned with protecting what’s left of their respective countries’ independent sovereignty.
With most other parties in favour, Frank may have fingered one way for the party to get back some of its equilibrium south of the border.
My contacts in South Armagh would be sympathetic to the SDLP, as I was myself during the Troubles. Then it was important to have leaders like Hume and the rest who stood between physical force republicans and the forces of a rogue state trying to enforce the oppression of a bygone era.
The price of having that sort of leadership is that no-one could ever have claimed to organise them into acting together. They were dedicated individuals rather than a normal political party.
Those days are over and the SDLP now have to find a role to unify around. Plenty of ambitious well-educated young professionals just dying to get stuck in.
If they can be persuaded to join the local councils and do the boring repetitive chores that local representatives do then their time will come.
Unfortunately we are going through a period when the real stars like Mallon Curry etc have left the stage and when the second-raters like Bradley, McAllister etc are blocking modernisation.
The SDLP may threaten Sinn Fein eventually but that time is a long way off. If as looks likely the new SDLP bears a distinct resembence to Fianna Fail then there will be plenty of room for both parties since they will be canvassing a very different spectrum of voters.
New Yorker,
Don’t you think people at Google read the recent story in the LA Times on this matter? BTW, did you read it?
I have read it now and the article titled Old tensions revive in Northern Ireland (I think there is a clue in the title there as to where the paper thinks the stability problem lies) talks about the “hard men of South Armagh”, about how maybe “nobody told the South Armagh boys the war was over”, about how “the Police Service of Northern Ireland patrols the streets of South Armagh, albeit in heavily armored vehicles”.
It also says:
“The killing in October of Paul Quinn, a 21-year-old truck driver who grew up in this sleepy emerald village — a slaying so brutal that lots of people start crying just describing what happened — has rocked the new power-sharing government in Belfast and offered a stark reminder, if any were needed, that Northern Ireland’s legacy of paramilitary violence remains alive and well in these long-turbulent borderlands.”
Now if you want to point out to me where the LA Times asked, intimated or even mentioned how this was a test of the Irish State’s credentials, or even better, how FDI to the Irish Republic could be affected by this murder then I’m all ears.
Otherwise I’ll continue to hold the view that your argument holds absolutely no water. Or perhaps are you talking about another article that contains something to back up what you say about how this murder is being viewed in the United States ? I could only find the one from December 12 which would also seem to back up my point that this murder is not getting the coverage that the McCartney one.
By the way, The British government also said the IRA was out of business and I very much doubt the LA Times or any other newspaper in the US is questioning it as a FDI destination because, in case you didn’t realise, the South Armagh referred to in the LA Times is part of the UK.
You seem to think us Yanks do not follow the news that is important to us in other countries. Don’t you think people at Google read the recent story in the LA Times on this matter? BTW, did you read it?
Posted by New Yorker on Dec 31, 2007 @ 05:35 AM
I read it New Yorker, and it was off base and complete bollocks! I mean they even quoted Willy McCrea which completely destroys any credibility the story might have had
George
That is the article I was referring to. It is filed by a staff European reporter for the LA Times. It is a news report not an editorial. The issues you raise would be properly addressed in an editorial piece. Readers will draw their own conclusions and the murder took place on the Republic’s soil and the victim died in a hospital in Drogheda. Also, the police in the Republic have the lead position in the investigation.
Those of us over here who follow Irish affairs know NI is a work in progress and are not impressed by the current attempt at local government. We’d like to see a good outcome but there is a cloud over Stormont and Brown is not as engaged as he should be and as Blair properly was. There are still massive law and order challenges in NI and South Armagh is not the only area that is a problem. But from the Republic’s perspective, the juncture of South Armagh, North Louth and Eastern Monaghan is the problem that needs attention and is hopefully getting it. The results of the current investigations will be watched.
You are correct that so far the McCartney murder has received more coverage that the Quinn murder in the US. But there is over two years difference in time and Mr. and Mrs. Quinn have not been to the US yet. When and if they visit the US, there will be significant coverage.
Steve
Did you read the same article? I know the area and think it is on-base and perceptive. Certainly there is much more truth in the article than the frequently updated fairy tales from SF. Do you agree?
Not one bit New Yorker
they took the dissafected wet dream explanation of anti-Sinn Fein propagandists and published it as fact. Nothing I have seen bears any resemblance as to the IRA’s involvement except those that hold an anti-Sinn Fein point of view
Even the anti-Sinn Fein representatives that are in government won’t blame Sinn Fein or any IRA members with out the full benefit of parliamentary priviledge and even he has been described as completely wrong by the police. And in fact he has shown to be a direct liar by naming an innocent man and making him the target of harrasment.
I am no fool, I know there is a very high likely hood of some former members of the IRA and possibly even some current members being involved but since they can not control former members, and with the stripping of the command and control structures, they have only loose control of current members to call this an IRA murder is assinine at best.
And nothing I have seen says that Paul was an angel, I think like McCartney he was playing at being a hardman when he came up against the real deal. Unfortunately for both they were in over their head before they ever knew they were swimming.
Steve
I believe Mr. and Mrs. Quinn and they say the IRA murdered their son. I know the area and know people like Mr. and Mrs. Quinn – good and honest people who know right from wrong. I also know SF and I wouldn’t believe a single thing they say unless there is independent verification.
If you really believe what SF say, I feel sorry for you, most people these days see their BS for what it is. This time they really messed up and will pay the consequences, no matter how they squeal or wiggle.
Happy New Year!
Funny New Yorker, you will believe anything against Sinn Fein with out atribution or even circumstantial evidence
But anything pro-Sinn Fein is to be believed only after third party independant confirmation and multiple sources required
Every one with any real authority or an ability to see any of the evidence has all said the same thing. No Sinn Fein involvement, No official IRA involvement.
Steve
When a good and honest person tells me something, I usually believe them. When someone who has lied to me tells me something, I look for independent verification. I have been told lies by SF – and so have you. I check into what SF says, you apparently do not.
The anti-SF position is usually the correct one. I recall they said the IRA did not kill Detective McCabe and look how that turned out. As you well know, there is a long list of lies told and the truth finally comes out. This case is no different.
The Quinn murder will probably do damage, but more in maintaining transfer repellence; is there really anyone who this attacks that wouldn’t have been driven off by the McCartney murder?
Reality check alert. While the murder of Paul Quinn was absoutely repellent, an awful lot of people are buying the official Republican explanation. This includes, for example, any PSNI officer of my acquaintance (those in my close acquaintance operate in Greater Belfast), and Joe Public of various backgrounds. No-one outside the British Isles (with the exception of a few, increasingly meaningless, diaspora communities), could tell you the difference between Cross, Carrickmacross, Killarney or Carrickfergus). To those who are going to disagree, I would require you to give me a brief resumé of the ethic balance along the Kosovo-Serbia-Macedonia-Montenegro-Albania frontier before I believe you aren’t blowing your own trumpet.
The problem for the Shinners, is that those in the immediate vicinity (by which I mean not just South Armagh, but the immediate vicinity of Cross, Cullyhanna and Silverbridge), especially those who knew Paul most direcly, tend to believe the family’s story. There are two problems here – firstly, cross-contamination: those in the area pass their understanding to their friends, and that gradually spreads across Ireland; secondly, the unique relationship of South Armagh to traditional physical-force Republicanism. If the Shinners lose Cross and Cullyhanna, where is loyal to them? It’s like Alliance getting a tanking in Holywood or Kircubbin. They’d be well advised to shut people like Dominic Murphy up and let Coly Burns, Terry Hearty and the Carraghers handle matters.
But Silverbridge ain’t Silver Spring and anyone thinking that this murder, at this stage, would have an impact on American industrial opinion needs their head examined.
“Do you feel that Gerry Adams not being a candidate in the last general election in the south played any role in SF’s failure in that poll
You’re all making a big analytical mistake. Of course, Gerry was a weirdo, Nordie, foreigner, but is the spectacular election result in the North invalidated by the disappointing one in the South? The Shinners still own, by and large, Nationalist areas in the North. If you have any sense in politics, you ensure you do, those things you already do well, even better.
Is that outweighed by an upset in Dublin (and it is Dublin we’re talking about)? I don’t think so. Of course the result in the Republic is disappointing for SF. That causes problems in the North because of the the Shinners lose the the air of invulnerability . But at the end of the day, North is North and South is South; Gerry didn’t make a tit of himself up here in the way he did down there. The Shinners would still wil 28 or so seats in an Assembly election up here, if it were held tomorrow.
I spend a lot of time knocking doors and the SF vote isn’t slipping in Belfast at all. I’d guess we’ll do better out of SDLP transfers than we did this year (already well ahead of SF in Greater Belfast); all feels good at present. It could be wishful thinking on my part, but I don’t think so. The SDLP are doing OK, but the only people who actually remember Margaret Ritchie’s name are in UDA-run estates; hardly natural SDLP territory (but there is a point in doing what is right just because it is right). Things are better for us in Alliance than for some years, and I’d hazard we’d get 70-75% of SDLP transfers in metropolitan Belfast plus 10-15% of Shinners direct.
But the SF core vote isn’t budging. If the Shinners have an Achilles Heel, it’s because of water charges, but the dummheit of the journalistic class prevents them spotting this as a problem.
Shit happens, that’s life, and I’ve had a few tonight, but that’s my take on the world. And as I said, I’ve knocked more doors than, I would guess, anyone since March.
You’re not far off the mark with some of that analysis, Sammy. I think PSF have inoculated their voters with the understanding that their interests and the party’s best interests is the same thing. In that movement/cult mentality, the party is the end rather than the means to an end. Essentially, it exists to serve the interests of those who are part of that insular movement and has no other function. It is ‘Ourselves Alone’ – even if they are alone and huddled together in a political cul-de-sac. So, it really doesn’t matter to the success of PSF in the north if PSF don’t prosper in the south. Their so-called ‘republican strategy’ of furthering Irish unity by gaining power on both sides of the border can fail abysmally (as it did in the Republic’s election) and their voters will drop all mention of the failed strategy as quickly as PSF do. The failure to achieve that goal (which was once the core objective of their supporters) is no longer relevant to the new dispensation where PSF has power within the UK and the people are happy with that internal settlement because PSF is happy with it. With that kind of devoted grassroots, they could manipulate their supporters into supporting the monarchy – and they would do if that is what the British government compelled them to do in return for power. It is also why they will withstand an onslaught from FF. FF really don’t understand the dynamics, and I doubt that the SDLP will fill them in on it. In the north, FF will be seen as ‘outsiders’ by that huge chunk of nationalists who support PSF. When they attack PSF, the ‘insiders’ will support their own against the outsiders, having the effect of consolidating PSF support up there. You just have to look at how their supporters will overlook the 40 murders that PSF/PIRA have committed since their ceasefire and the hundreds of millions they have stashed away in ill-gotten gains to grasp how profoundly abnormal it all is.
Sammy
the few you had i would say gave you insight you dont normaly allow on these pages
Dubliner
In my view in the North the republicans have understood that Sinn Fein has replaced physical force republicanism with political force republicanism and that is what has allowed the ascencion of Sinn Fein
SDLP
have always failed to capture the imagination of the general republican population because while they embraced political republicanism they didnt embrace political force republicanism. i believe that republicans will no longer accept just the scraps thrown from the masters table, unfortunately thats exactly what people see the SDLP as. beggars for scraps thrown from the table and until they recognize this they will never enjoy the success the believe they deserve.
Of course I am a total outsider and accept you all are smarter than i am but i have an ability to generally see through the fog and get to the heart of the matter. You are smarter than me tell me why the SDLP has not enjoyed any gains from the present dispensation
But leave off the intimidation of the IRA in the voting booth malarkey, because as long as it is a annonymous vote then thats just bollocks made up to make the losers feel better.
I do not believe in, but can understand that there was at one time a need for physical force republicanism but now is the time for political force republicanism and the fact that only Sinn Fein has seemed to understand this is a credit to them and debit to the SDLP
Dubliner,
All the years of resisting smear tactics have innoculated SF supporters. It’s not enough to blame everything on themmuns. Unless you can show us convictions rather than charges which are later quietly dropped you will get nowhere.
There are too many things which don’t add up – remember how all the drugs were down to republicans? It has emerged that British Intelligence was using the drugs trade to finance illegal loyalist paramilitaries.
Similarly there’s the Castlereagh raid which suited the same British Intelligenge people and where the perpetrators not only didn’t care about their faces being shown on CCCTV and knew the passwords for internal doors within the Castlereagh complex. Most damming of all the chef who we were all assured was the main republican suspect has tried to give himself up and the British authorities don’t want to know.
The so-called Stormont Spy-ring where the only confirmed member was the British agent.
Or the ‘disappearing’ white vans from the Northern Bank robbery, again involving people who seemed to have no fear of appearing on-camera. Seems to me there might have been a few British operatives who wanted to put something in their retirement piggy banks.
We’re now well down the path of creating a two-party nationalist system in the North with Sinn Fein becoming an ever more acceptable member of an emerging broad-left strategy in the South.
Forcing Fianna Fail to consider moving North is a sign of the success of the 32-county strategy. One only moves to counter a real and substantial threat.
You openly show your contempt for the Sinn Fein electorate – a strange point of view for someone who claims to love democracy and the very attitude which has led to the death of traditional unionism.
The voters aren’t sheep – not the Sinn Fein voters nor the DUP supporters either.
Steve,
For good reason the older generation of the SDLP find it hard to forgive republicans for all the years of physical intimidation. It was a dirty mean war on all sides except the SDLP who were the only people to emerge with their moral character untainted. Now, as you have pointed out they seem to be reaping little reward.
It will take time for a mature nationalist middleclass electorate to emerge but the signs are already there in places like Glengormley. In time the old crocks who are blocking change will go and a new generation of SDLP will take their place. Durkan is no mean strategist and knows that in present circumstances all he can do is hold the party together.
The worst thing for the SDLP to do at the moment would be to engage in opportunist attacks on the Shinners. The greatest card the SDLP hold is their integrity. Lose that and they lose everything, a point they know well and the reason why they don’t want to get too close any of the Southern parties.
The North is not a mature democracy and that has to be remembered when comparing North and South.
Sammy
Your normally give us an excellent analysis, but you are wide off the mark with this one. Sure SF can continue to exist as an important section of Unionist politics, they will continue to hover up the ‘catholic’ vote, but unless they make a break through in the south that is all they will be, a big fish in a very small unionist pond and make no mistake without a war the politics of the north will become increasingly irrelevant compared with that of the south
If SF fail the next time around to make a break through in the south, SF’s raison det’re to exist will have been removed and the Adams cliques whole political strategy will have proved to have been a failure; and remember it was never about governing at Stormont in tandem with Paisley and co, but completing the Irish democratic socialist revolution and in the process reuniting the nation politically. It should not be forgotten that is why men and women went out to kill and put their lives on the line, having shinners at Stormont never entered the equation.
Thus if this does occur those dissident republicans who have said all along that Adams had been lulled into supporting a british strategy for Ireland will have been proved correct.
This will coarse immense demoralizations within the ranks of SF and its core support base in the north the consequences of which are still unforeseen.
New Yorker,
is your ignoring the question your way of admitting that the LA Times article you mentioned in no way backs up what you are trying to argue?
In fact, can you provide any American, British or even Irish media outlet (hell, let’s go the whole hog and say any reputable media source on the planet) that has argued that the investigation of the Quinn murder is a test of the Irish State’s credentials.
If you are unable to do so, I’ll just have to continue to assume your view not only holds no water but that you are one of the only people on the planet espousing it.
“that the investigation of the Quinn murder is a test of the Irish State’s credentials.”
I reckon it’s a huge test in the whole credibility of policing in the border area – in either jurisdiction.
Lib
I wasn’t suggesting that the SDLP should attack Sinn Fein as I don’t believe this is a wise strategy. They just end up looking like they are attacking their own communities.
I think regardless of the legal outcome, Margaret Ritchie scored a stunning victory in cancelling the UDA funding. But the SDLP failed to build on that and if they can not find momentum and keep going they will always be the #2 nationalist party regardless of FF involvement.
To me, and I admit to being a complete outsider, the nationalist population, especially the younger generation, just will not accept second class anything and they expect their leaders to get out and make opportunities for them.
The SDLP seems to be stuck in the past, they want to quietly sit on their laurels and take what is offered. Now maybe behind closed doors they are forceful and demanding but unless they can convey that message to the electorate they will be hard pressed to make any gains.
Steve,
I agree with your analysis. My only comment would be that I think the current position with the SDLP merely hanging on is due partly to the unwillingness of the older generation to move on, and partly the need to wait for a more confident and hopefully cross community middleclass to emerge.
Sinn Fein has had such success in its takeover of the centre left in the North that the SDLP will of necessity have to occupy the populist right position.
That leaves them exposed since they are still a party of protest in most of Ireland but they aren’t fools and will devise suitable policies.
Steve,
I agree with your analysis. My only comment would be that I think the current position with the SDLP merely hanging on is due partly to the unwillingness of the older generation to move on, and partly the need to wait for a more confident and hopefully cross community middleclass to emerge.
Sinn Fein has had such success in its takeover of the centre left in the North that the SDLP will of necessity have to occupy the populist right position.
That leaves them exposed since they are still a party of protest in most of Ireland but they aren’t fools and will devise suitable policies.
George
You question was not ignored. Did you not read the above – “It is filed by a staff European reporter for the LA Times. It is a news report not an editorial. The issues you raise would be properly addressed in an editorial piece.” Readers will draw their own conclusions with the LA Times article as they will with The Economist article, etc. It’s mystifying that you do not understand the difference between reportage and an editorial.
It doesn’t take that many readers drawing the conclusion I highlight to make a difference. A few key perceptive people in business or government. You can be sure the appropriate people at the US State Department are following this matter carefully, although I do not know what their conclusions are. If they decide the Dublin government is slacking off on bringing the Quinn murder operation gang to justice they could, for instance, call for a review of tax accounting practices of US corporations with operations in the ROI.
I tend to agree with you Mick Hall on this one, and re:
“This will coarse immense demoralizations within the ranks of SF and its core support base in the north the consequences of which are still unforeseen.”
True. To remain as neutral as possible, honestly, from what I have witnessed of the Assembly, Sinn Fein are woeful. Very poor and in many ways some of the backbench DUP MLAs are similar too. It’s very hard to see any real ‘eureka’ coming from them at this current rate.
The all consuming nature both of time and thought on executing NI policy will eat up both DUP and SF grinding them down.
Perhaps it just me but the way Adams comes across is dated in terms of what passes as political debate elsewhere. Recall your minds back to a clip that Mick posted on here which was by the BBC, the name of the programme escapes me, but in that I thought Adams was dreadful, little or no ideas for the future. In that clip the presenter made mention of Slugger O’Toole.
So now since the post-GFA98 environment and post peace process and now with a bad Southern election I believe SF are running on empty. Perhaps a replacement tank may be needed too.
Re SDLP and FF. If I were FF members I would stay clear of merger and build naturally for societal values as per what is offered in the party just across the ‘porous’ border.
Mergers unless under totalitarian firm hand usually become messy. Change is the hardest thing to manage and the SDLP haven’t managed, yet, to out-manoeuvre SF in that pushing them off ground that was once their own. Or winning over the younger voter.
This is a bizarre situation for the SDLP becuase they do have a very functioning youth group.
http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/865
ftp://goldmine.bz/Shoe%20Horned%20into%20the%20EU/START4%20REDUCE%20FILE%20SIZE.pdf