Ogra Fianna Fail to organise in NI Unis…
Well, if it is serious about organising in Northern Ireland, Bertie Ahern will have to build from the bottom up as well as any top down deal with the SDLP. Politics.ie reports that it will recruiting at Queens and the University of Ulster tomorrow and Wednesday. It comes on the heel of Alisdair McDonnell’s statement that his party, the SDLP, and FF will firm up ties (“five, six, seven years”?). You can hear a fascinating full interview here.
Fiana Fail are only about 75 years too late….
Well for their sake I hope they have a degree of success or else the impending invasion will be carried out by Dad’s Army.
SDLP merges with IRA? No decommissioning required. What about this one Margaret Ritchie? And will we continue to get celebrations of terrorism like Dublin Easter 2006? Nationalists obviously have no rspect for the GFA or St Andrews (ironically SF do……they decommisioned etc unlike DeValeras mob).
Are the IMC going to report on the state of the IRA/FF? It would be untinkable to have SDLP in government if their newly discovered armed wing failed to decommission. What a delicious irony regarding M. Ritchie.
Delicious irony? More like strained irony.
[edited by moderator - Play the Ball] All decent people are backing Ritchie.
Then again David, some us live in the real world.
FF will not be rectuiting if they aren’t recognised by Queens SRC surely?
If my point is invalid, when does a bad terrorist become good? There is no difference between SF and FF except time. SF are there on electoral mandate (rightly) and FF/SDLP would be too (again fair enough). Do not try and pass one early 20th century IRA of as morally superior to late 20th century version.
Ballygobackwards
They must have purchased one of the commerical spots, quelle surprise. It’s Galway races all over again.
As no FF Cumanna has been ratified by the SRC they will not be allowed to collect membership money on the day but can take names.
This is all moot however as they tried to recuit before and the only ones to show up were members of other political parties looking a nosy.
CG
Indeed. I really don’t see Northern Ireland Nationalists buying in to a southern gombeen cute hoorism as epitomised by Fianna Fail. Maybe I am wrong.
I also find the idea of the SDLP linking up with them to be an act of desperation. It’s a bit like all those UUP wonks who wanted them to become the Ulster branch of the Conservatives because they basically had no faith whatsoever in their own brand anymore.
David: in the case of PIRA etc, as long as it takes the Iraqis to forgive the terrorism of the UK? You’re letting your narrow-minded view on what is/isn’t a terrorist blur a discussion on what is a purely valid political move (if you ‘respect’ the GFA as much as you say you do). If you want to play the game of ‘how long’ etc, then look to the violent history and entanglements of current unionist parties (UUP-Vanguard-UDA, DUP-UVF etc)and ask if, even today, these links have truly been broken. You’re question is far more valid for issues closer to home than to that of FF, who, with their current crop of TDs, have at this point in time, a much cleaner record of involvement with terrorists/paramiltaries/rebels/freedom fighters (take your pick) than ANY unionist party. If the IMC had to look anywhere else, it wouldn’t be wasting its time with SDLP/FF.
It’s a good interview and Alex Kane in todays news letter has plenty to say on it, he believes that FF are effectively tearing up strand one of the agreement by organising here.
I’d welcome FF. Hope they are successful in their recruiting and run candidates if there is an early poll. The sooner the better.
Mayoman: I have to disagree with some of what you say:
1. I do not have an objection to FF organising and takin part in politics in NI. Rather my point is that the ‘time’ element is all that stops those who moralise about the terrorist/freedom fighter/resistance movement links of contemporary parties being applied to FF etc. Personally I welcome any movement from violent to political action.
2. Contemporary Unionist parties (with the exception of PUP) are not like SF,FF,FG etc as they were not formed out of the militant group.
3. I have no doubt the current crop of FF Tds are excellent and free from paramilitary connections. My point is that their party comes from the same roots as many contemporary parties. They cannot claim moral superiority (not that they do, it is the SDLP which wants to merge which is more likely to play the ‘moral card’).
I think we probably agree on many points. I totally support the GFA and as far as I am concerned it opened the door to politics for all, it has been infuriating to watch politicians moralise after they signed a deal to legitimise these parties.
I’ll be ay Queens myself helping on the Alliance Stand, so I’ll be greatly interested to see what FF have to say for themselves and what their goals are. Frankly I see this hurting the shinners a lot. Their only remaining claim to fame is that they are the only All-Ireland party (deliberately ignoring the Green Party). Everything else Sinn Fein are about has been blown out of the water by accepting a role in the partitionist goverment.
“Are the IMC going to report on the state of the IRA/FF? It would be untinkable to have SDLP in government if their newly discovered armed wing failed to decommission.”
…the sound of a barrel bottom being scraped.
Hilarious. Brightened up my Monday!
Thanks for the clarification David. The only thing that I do disagree with you is the line “Contemporary Unionist parties (with the exception of PUP) are not like SF,FF,FG etc as they were not formed out of the militant group.” I think history shows this to be wrong. James Craig was a founder of the UVF and was well known for his love of getting other people to gun run. How many of the present-day unionist parties deny a role for James Craig in their own history? Edward Carson too, a founding member of a pro-insurgency and paramiltary UVF. Are these not the roots of modern day unionism as espoused by the UUP and DUP and do not these parties trace a line back to these men?
Indeed. I really don’t see Northern Ireland Nationalists buying in to a southern gombeen cute hoorism as epitomised by Fianna Fail. Maybe I am wrong.
Pretty much. FF have no roots or organisation in the North. Before anyone points out that they’ll take over the SDLP’s organisation, that isn’t actually worth inheriting outside Derry and Carmel Hanna’s patch of South Belfast, even if all of it joined FF, which I doubt.
Why do people vote FF in the South? Because their families always have, because their great-grandas fought for Dev and because FF are always around knocking their doors with a wee survey. None of these reasons is going to apply in the North. Oh, and the economy, and Bertie’s personal popularity – if you think the boom is still going to be running in “five, six, seven years”, or that Bertie is still going to be Taoiseach then, you need your head examination. Does anyone think that Michael Martin as leader of the opposition is going to pull too many votes in up here, they need their head seen to.
Of course, I’m delighted at the prospects of taking a huge lump out of what was once the liberal SDLP vote, just as I’m sure the Shinners are delighted by the prospects of eating yet further into the SDLP’s greenier and leftier fringes, so as far as I’m concerned, bring it on. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a really, really, stupid idea.
No worries with streaming, using Safari then Quick Time player – though by now they are talking about something else.
>> Fiana Fail are only about 75 years too late…
Yes, and if they did organise 75 years ago how would the Vanguard (and/or its equivalent) would have behaved towartds them?
Sorry, post 17 belongs to another thread!!
Posted by Sammy Morse on Sep 24, 2007 @ 03:29 PM
That doesn’t mean it isn’t a really, really, stupid idea.
Seriously Sammy, why would someone whose main motivation in voting is removing the border, vote for anyone other than FF? Tell me why SF is a better option than Fianna Fail? I don’t get it…
“eating yet further into the SDLP’s greenier and leftier fringes” What ‘greenier and leftier fringes’? Are you pulling my leg? To paraphrase D Ahern, “SF would be our rivals. They’re a Marxist party”. There is plenty of mileage in old style green nationalist, capitalist politics. SF would be the ones squeezed, no?
Sammy,
Why do people vote FF in the South? Because their families always have, because their great-grandas fought for Dev and because FF are always around knocking their doors with a wee survey. None of these reasons is going to apply in the North. Oh, and the economy, and Bertie’s personal popularity.
I think you have a slightly outdated view of FF’s appeal in the Republic and the idea that people are following traditional voting patterns handed down from generation to generation. And believe it or not, most people aren’t regaled with stories at the fireside of great-granda’s exploits alongside Dev in the War of Independence.
FF cleaned up in the new commuter belts around Dublin, for example, while FG managed to gain back just one seat in Dún Laoghaire, a constituency where it once held three.
Politics has become very fluid down south and, as for the economy, there no reason why it can’t boom for another seven years, or outperform the Northern Irish one at any rate.
The country has pretty well no national debt so can support a couply of lean years and also has a young and growing population.
I don’t know how FF will run up north but I certainly wouldn’t dismiss them out of hand – even post Bertie.
They signed off on a billion euro cheque for Northern Ireland and I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign another even bigger one in six or seven years if and when they eventually do decide to run. Money talks.
I hardly know where to begin on the subject of Fianna Fail’s madcap scheme to stand candidates in Northern Ireland.
That this is supposed to help out the SDLP strikes me as beyond bizarre, since the two parties have absolutely nothing in common beyond an Irish Nationalism to which the SDLP is less than fully committed, certainly in any form recognisable by the activist base and core electorate of Fianna Fail.
Nothing will save the SDLP, just as nothing will save the Alliance Party, and just as nothing short of a miracle will save the Ulster Unionist Party.
Still, if Fianna Fail, no doubt followed by Fine Gael, were to fill the vacuum where the SDLP used to be, then the urgently necessary new British parties should fill the vacuum where the UUP and the Alliance Party used to be. Indeed, they should and must do this anyway.
Just as they should and must fill the vacuums where Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems used to be.
“Still, if Fianna Fail, no doubt followed by Fine Gael”
Lindsay, you don’t really understand the difference between FG and FF do you?
David Lindsay
“I hardly know where to begin on the subject of Fianna Fail’s madcap scheme to stand candidates in Northern Ireland.”
Couple of things. First off, why madcap?
Secondly, FF are not talking about standing candidates in the north. At this stage, all the noises coming from FF seem to suggest that that’s going to be a few years off yet. What they are talking about is building Fianna Fáil organisationally in the north. This seems pretty sensible – if they sign up a few more northern-based members, it’s all to the good. If they find there are lots of people in the north interested in joining, they can move on to the next stage of organising local cumainn, or not. Whatever they decide. If at that point things are looking good, then they could look at standing candidates. If it never reaches that stage, no harm done.
This seems to me like a sensible strategy. It seems like FF understand the northern electorate pretty well – indeed, if I may be a bit cheeky here, I think the way we do politics here is proof that these are Irish constituencies, not British ones. Irish voters north and south, whether in Kerry South or North Antrim, want parties that are active on the ground, with candidates who are strong personalities, linked to the area and with good records on bringing home the bacon for the constituency. In Britain, it seems a party brand is enough, and indeed the Irish way of doing politics is sneered at as “clientelist” or “parochial”.
Perhaps this is why the Conservatives have utterly failed to make any impact in NI despite contesting many elections? And perhaps this understanding gives reason to surmise that FF might prosper where the Tories have failed?
“Still, if Fianna Fail, no doubt followed by Fine Gael, were to fill the vacuum where the SDLP used to be, then the urgently necessary new British parties should fill the vacuum where the UUP and the Alliance Party used to be. Indeed, they should and must do this anyway.”
“Should” and “must” have nothing to do with it. Someone needs to make it happen – and that means more than inviting Dave Cameron over to have his picture taken in from of city hall every few years.
“Still, if Fianna Fail, no doubt followed by Fine Gaelâ€
Lindsay, you don’t really understand the difference between FG and FF do you?
Although with roots in the Michael Collins tradition, significant parts of FG are Redmondite, Post Nationalist and Neo Unionist in Outlook. The Alliance Party would be the party with the most similar outlook to FG. Although some in FG would have a moderate nationalist outlook like the SDLP, many more are sympathetic to Reg Empey’s criticism of Fianna Fail’s move.
FG don’t compete with SF for votes in the south (unlike Fianna Fail) and hence are not driven by a need to counter SF in the north or assert all Ireland credentials through organising in the North. While FF & FG buried their differences over the 1922 Treaty with the GFA an new difference will open up between an all Ireland FF and an FG which sees that GFA like the UUP as not a stepping stone to a united Ireland but a final settlement.
If FF-SDLP happens (and in some shape or form it will) a few Stoops will go to Labour and Alliance. Fianna Fail will however mop up the non SF nationalist constituency(as opposed to the wing of the SDLP who don’t really want the union to end). After that it will become a battle to prove they can bring home more bacon than SF. It will take a long time, but given that FF is the natural party of government in the south and will hold the purse strings for a lot of projects expect them to ruthlessly exploit this against SF.
FF won’t be looking to make gains off SF in the North anytime soon. They’ll concentrate their fire on SF in the south letting SF settle into being an established party of government in the North.
Post-SDLP will Unionists look to British parties or forge a united Unionist party? If FF-SDLP is abstentionist expect that it will result in joint abstentionist nationalist candidates – Unionists will most likely want to face such a development with single unionist candidates rather than British Parties competing against one another.
Labour and the Tories might well have a small presence here like the Greens, but the two big Orange and Green blocs will be here for quite some time to come
I raised the matter of Fine Gael having a committee in the North with Enda Kenny recently- before FF announced that they were going to set one up. He said he would make a decision on it later.
YFG already have a committee in the North. I think you will find that Fine Gael will soon be an all-island party also.
“Although with roots in the Michael Collins tradition, significant parts of FG are Redmondite, Post Nationalist and Neo Unionist in Outlook. The Alliance Party would be the party with the most similar outlook to FG. Although some in FG would have a moderate nationalist outlook like the SDLP, many more are sympathetic to Reg Empey’s criticism of Fianna Fail’s move.
FG don’t compete with SF for votes in the south (unlike Fianna Fail) and hence are not driven by a need to counter SF in the north or assert all Ireland credentials through organising in the North. While FF & FG buried their differences over the 1922 Treaty with the GFA an new difference will open up between an all Ireland FF and an FG which sees that GFA like the UUP as not a stepping stone to a united Ireland but a final settlement.”
I have never in my life read so much rubbish.
“Money talks.” – George
They’ll take your money for sure, but will they actually sleep with you?
I wonder what the underlying dynamics regarding unity actually are at this point. If you look at that stated aspiration and the actions that are supposedly done to further it, there doesn’t seem to be any consistent logic underpinning them.
The two nationalist parties in the north chose to negotiate within a format where the only two principles who could deliver a united Ireland (the governments) where excluded in favour of internal political parties who could deliver an internal settlement only. There is an obvious conflict between a political party’s desire to further its own selfish interests and the stated aim of unification which would have the outcome, if achieved, of being disastrous to that political party’s interests. Unity is the last thing either of those parties actually wants, since unity is self-destruction. Which, of course, is why PSF never asked Tony Blair’s incoming government for anything other a place at the negotiating table in return for a second ceasefire, making not one single mention of their stated aim of unification.
I think the nationalist people in the north have confused the interests of the political parties that represent them with their own interests, such that they assume that what is good for the party they support is also good for them. In that context, they will support a party even if it is at the direct expense of the aim that party claims to serve. For example, the outcome of the GFA was the PoC. That means that nationalists right to self-determination is subject to the veto of unionists. It means, obviously, that nationalists must persuaded unionists that unity is in their best interests. It means they must engage with unionists to this end. Yet, despite voting for the GFA, they don’t seem to understand that the party they now vote for is unable to engage with unionists to that end due to its bloody historical baggage, its sociopathic personalities, and its status as a glorified sectarian cult. They choose to vote for the party which retarded unity by several generations, reducing the number of unionists who identified themselves as Irish prior to PSF’s sectarian murder campaign to next to nothing. Unionists will never be persuaded to vote for unity if PSF are identified with the project, proffering it as the ultimate victory over them and validation for its violent campaign. That’s the simple reality of it.
So, looking at FF’s entry into the north, what better way of engaging with unionists as a condition of the PoC is there? Yet again we see nationalists in the north overlooking the logic of the PoC and rallying to the defence of PSF, confusing selfish political interests with their own interests. Looking beyond that, PSF’s own self-serving logic was to use the PoC as the means by which they would position themselves as the central dynamic north and south whereby all those who supported unity would them, effectively prostituting republicanism for selfish political interests. Now that FF looks likely to go north, there is no need for PSF to keep the south reminded that the north exists (i.e. get unity on the political agenda). FF can do that as the party of government in the south. Yet even that logic is now to be seemingly discarded by the northern electorate in favour of serving PSF’s interests before their own. The level of brainwashing goes beyond that which any cult has ever achieved before. To them, PSF’s interest and their own interests are now the same. When northern ‘republicans’ talk about the south, they do so as members of a cult, speaking in terms of “free-staters” and seeing the south as an illegitimate entity that has usurped their self-appointed ‘right’ to be a dictatorship of a quasi-communist state. The rest seem to think they will annex the south and not vice-versa.
We live in interesting times.
“I have never in my life read so much rubbish”
Darren – did you ever discuss this with Brian Hayes. He was FG spokeman for NI and probably the next FG party leader. The following he addressed to UUP meetings:
“I wasn’t surprised that it was the Ulster Unionist Party who would invite a Fine Gael politician to an event such as this. Despite public perception, there are many similarities between both our parties”
or
“The Ulster Unionist party can be rightly proud of its contribution to resolving the problems that exist here in Northern Ireland. This party has taken risks at a time when others chose to play party politics. It was the Ulster Unionist Party that led the way in forming the Executive after the Good Friday Agreement ”
or
“The Agreement was all about resolving the Irish question for good, not just for the next twenty years. It is not a staging post to a united Ireland ”
If you want to find these quotes they’re on the FG website. Darren you should have more respect for your party’s traditions and policies
“Enda Kenny said he would make a decision on it later.” As with FF it will be an Ard Fheis that would decide if FG goes north – and expect massive resistance in FG to any such move
Now you tell me who is talking rubbish?
Erm…
not you JD. I thought your analysis was rather sharp.
The long-term scenario, now that we all agree the environment is important, a market economy is a world choice, and it’s best not to invade your neighbours, is a cultural one.
Ireland, Wales and Scotland will cleave into unionists and nationalists, of various hues.
England will do a different kind of split, transfixed for eternity by the Saxon v Norman thing, disguised this past 100 years as a class divide.
You don’t believe me?
Brown and Cameron, Bertie and Enda.
Big ideological differences or what?
Those listening carefully to Alisdair at the weekend got a small insight into how much resistance there will be within the SDLP to any Fianna Fail advances that are genuinely about transforming into an all-Ireland party.
Ironically, this will be a case of Fianna Fail waiting for Sinn Fein to deliver the final knock out blow to the SDLP before the Failers turn north.
“Why do people vote FF in the South? Because their families always have, because their great-grandas fought for Dev and because FF are always around knocking their doors with a wee survey.”
Posted by Sammy Morse on Sep 24, 2007 @ 03:29 PM
Think your views on the 26 counties are a bit fossilised Sammy. Like most people down here I have relatives who vote for all the main parties and some don’t even bother to vote at all.
It may surprise you but FF,FG, and Labour people actually intermarry. Very few of us have grandparents and greatgrandparents who all were on the same side during the Civil War.
FFers and FGers actually work and socialise together. No peace walls or stone throwing or anything like that. I vote FF because they get things done. They also have a greater interest in peacefully unifying the country and this is in line with my own aspirations.
Please elaborate on the wee surveys… never come across them myself.
As an individual member of FF I find many of the comments interesting but a few points from an actual Party member.
We are bigger than the SDLP and our destiny will be determined by our members and supporters not the SDLP. They had their role in nationalist Ireland and a fine role they played. But FF is recruiting young Irishmen like me in Belfast who want a United Ireland and can see the vision with which FF will achieve it. It is based on peace and trust with the Orange tradition and is a strategy that SF and SDLP recognise but don’t have the experience or know how to come close to achieving.
FF have a track record in political and governmental leadership and quite frankly no northern politicain or party comes close when it comes to political CVs. That is not to say that it won’t be a challenge for FF but we, unlike most commentators (Prof Baw and Ivan Cooper excluded), have long term ambitions for Irish unity and don’t mind waiting another generation if it is ultimately peaceful and successful.
Don’t write us off before we’ve even got into to arena! You might just end up eating your words.
Seriously Sammy, why would someone whose main motivation in voting is removing the border, vote for anyone other than FF?
Briso, you’re usually one of the sharper commenters around here, so do you really want me to answer a point as facile as that? Many people will think SF are more likely to deliver that objective. You may disagree but that doesn’t change that fact. And many nationalists have more complex motivations that just removing the border. Many people vote SDLP because: they don’t like the Shinners history or attitude but they want someone to stand up for their community; because they regard the SDLP as a middle-of-the-road peacenik party just like Alliance but slightly greener (and we’ll pick up these votes in bucketloads if the SDLP merge into FF); because they want to vote for a socialist/social democratic party (don’t sneer, such people exist, in surprisingly large numbers); and because they’ve always voted SDLP (a new brand will force them to reassess their loyalties). FF may pick up some people from all of these groups but an awful lot of SDLP voters will just walk off to whichever of Alliance or Sinn Féin they’ve been happily, often enthusiastically, giving their second preferences to for years.
I think you have a slightly outdated view of FF’s appeal in the Republic and the idea that people are following traditional voting patterns handed down from generation to generation.
Think your views on the 26 counties are a bit fossilised Sammy. Like most people down here I have relatives who vote for all the main parties and some don’t even bother to vote at all.
I’ll take both these comments together. They’re sensible comments that tell part of the story of contemporary voting behaviour in the Republic but not all of it. In tandem with most established democracies, party loyalties in the Republic have weakened enormously in the past couple of decades. FF have been masterful in adopting to that new reality hence, as sam rightly points out, the massive FF votes in places like Dublin South and Dun Laoghaire. But party loyalties haven’t disappeared; the number of core party voters still greatly exceeds the number of floaters, and FF are particularly adept at keeping their core vote on board. For a lot of these core voters, voting FF through many turns and twists of policy is a tradition thing, a family thing, that in many cases traces its way back to the civil war. Not that people are sticking the vote in the ballot box to get one back for Annascaul, but it’s an inheritance. Before you dismiss that point, just ask yourself why Bertie Ahern, that symbol of the new Ireland, is in FF as opposed to any other party. And that’s not necessarily Irish exceptionalism – a lot of English Tories or French Socialists would be in exactly the same boat.
Outside the core FF’s vote, while currently big, is squidgy soft (look at the 2004 Euros) and linked directly with competence in government. With no core North of the border, no place in government, no activist base beyond some of the SDLP’s and an economy in the South heading for choppy waters, how do FF establish themselves up here?
Irish voters north and south, whether in Kerry South or North Antrim, want parties that are active on the ground, with candidates who are strong personalities, linked to the area and with good records on bringing home the bacon for the constituency.
And they’re going to get that from a party that will, in the North, consist of some of the SDLP (you know, those well known pavement-pounders). I see.
If FF-SDLP happens (and in some shape or form it will) a few Stoops will go to Labour and Alliance. Fianna Fail will however mop up the non SF nationalist constituency
After the Shinners have been in power for a couple of terms, how much will there be left of that?
given that FF is the natural party of government in the south and will hold the purse strings for a lot of projects expect them to ruthlessly exploit this against SF
Only if FF retain power for the foreseeable future. It’s spectacularly arrogant to just assume that FF are capable of holding power for generations in the way that, say, the Swedish Social Democrats did. One bad recession will kill off FF in power and a lot of the cross-border projects. You can turn a blind eye to the gombeenism when other things are going well but it’s a marriage of convenience rather than true love. And I’ll believe all this NDP money is coming North when I see it; it’s not like big infrastructure projects in the South happen in anything like the timescales that FF claim for them before hand.
They’ll concentrate their fire on SF in the south letting SF settle into being an established party of government in the North.
If they do that, they aren’t coming north for a while.
The Alliance Party would be the party with the most similar outlook to FG.
Agreed. FG and Alliance people always seem to be very comfortable with one another. Now tell Enda to come up and canvass for us rather than the SDLP in the next elections.
It is based on peace and trust with the Orange tradition and is a strategy that SF and SDLP recognise but don’t have the experience or know how to come close to achieving.
A spectacularly vain post which drips with the entitlement and arrogance that would (if it were representative) kill any FF project of at birth. The Shinners will laugh at you then eat you alive. Success on one side of the border does not guarantee success on the other side. Ask Gerry Adams.
Folks, I’ve heard all this before from integrationist Unionists during the heyday of the Campaign for Equal Citizenship and NI Tories. If the ‘mainland’ parties organised here, they would have their hands on the purse-strings, destroy those silly little provincial backwoodsmen, convince all the Taigs that they were really British and cure the common cold and bad breath.
It didn’t amount to diddly squat in the end and the Tories can’t even get a councillor elected in Ballyholme these days. I’ve yet to see any evidence that Fianna Fáil would fare any better. NI remains a place apart politically, and every single pro-FF poster here ignores the manpower, professionalism, experience and hunger available to SF in the North.
But as an Alliance activist in Belfast, I could do with a thousand extra votes or ten. Bring it on.
“given that FF is the natural party of government in the south and will hold the purse strings for a lot of projects expect them to ruthlessly exploit this against SF
Only if FF retain power for the foreseeable future. It’s spectacularly arrogant to just assume that FF are capable of holding power for generations in the way that, say, the Swedish Social Democrats did. ”
Hi Sammy – I’m not an FFer. When I say FF are the natural party of government I say it with resignation rather than arrogance. Their dominance is a phenomenon on par with that of the Swedish Social Democrats – and its not healthy (all power corrupts etc..). What has entrenced FF’s power further is that that since they adopted coalition in 1989 they can pick their partner for government freezing FG out.
Reading your posts I agree with much of your analysis in particular:
“an awful lot of SDLP voters will just walk off to whichever of Alliance or Sinn Féin they’ve been happily, often enthusiastically, giving their second preferences to for years.”
In many ways within the all Ireland Green Republican tradition (I don’t mean the pluralist tradition of FG Darren – I not insulting FG by the way) FF & SF may become a mirror image of one another. One well organised in the south with the other being a bit player and the reverse North of the border.
I think this is different from the campaign for equal citizenship as this is a re-organisation within Nationalism – nothing more. There’ll be FF MLAs while Irish Labour will have some cllrs. The Alliance will grow a bit and the Greens will be there as they are now. If the UUP and DUP draw together there’ll be a few crumbs for the Tories to pick up
An all Ireland FF will make SF ideologically indistinguishable – although better organised, SF in NI will be faced with some serious soul seaching in such a scenario. What happens in intra nationalist competition is anyone’s guess. However if SF start complaining about FF stealing their game plan for being in government North & South they’ll loose fickle nationalist support – just like the SDLP did when they started moaning about SF stealing their policies on powersharing and consent.
Tonight’s “Questions & Answers” on RTE had Eamonn O’Cuiv (FF – DeVs Grandson) and Brian Hayes (FG)on the panel. O’Cuiv said outright FF would negotiate with the SDLP and any FF development in NI would be gradual. An FF-SDLP arrangement is in prospect with some FF organisation on the side.
As regards Brian Hayes on tonight’s show – if you’re out there Darren. The FG position (as annunicated by him – he would be briefed before the show by the FG press office) is FF in NI is dangerous. He verbaitim said what Reg Empey did last week. Sammy outlines FG & the Alliance Party’s common thinking well Darren. Perhaps you should join FF?
Sammy, I think Darren is a good example of a southerner voting on family loyalty. He thinks like modern day FF but he has to support FG.
Which leads me to a related question Sammy. The Alliance is in the Liberal group in Europe – FG is in the Christian Democrats any chance you’d join the CDs instead (if the UUP merged with the DUP)? Then Enda could go canvass for you?
Mayoman: You are correct. The UVF and Unionist party was hand in hand…………but then that is the ‘old UVF’ so obviously like the ‘old IRA’ acceptable to contemporary moralists. It reminds me of Billy Connolly’s sketch about being killed by ‘conventional’ as opposed to ‘nuclear’ weapons…….so much more acceptable .
Seriously Sammy, why would someone whose main motivation in voting is removing the border, vote for anyone other than FF?
Briso, you’re usually one of the sharper commenters around here, so do you really want me to answer a point as facile as that?
Errmmm, yes.
Many people will think SF are more likely to deliver that objective. You may disagree but that doesn’t change that fact.
Well, the question was, now that they can (for the sake of argument) vote FF, why would they think ‘SF are more likely to deliver that objective’? What is the case?
And many nationalists have more complex motivations that just removing the border. Many people vote SDLP because: they don’t like the Shinners history or attitude but they want someone to stand up for their community; because they regard the SDLP as a middle-of-the-road peacenik party just like Alliance but slightly greener (and we’ll pick up these votes in bucketloads if the SDLP merge into FF); because they want to vote for a socialist/social democratic party (don’t sneer, such people exist, in surprisingly large numbers); and because they’ve always voted SDLP (a new brand will force them to reassess their loyalties). FF may pick up some people from all of these groups but an awful lot of SDLP voters will just walk off to whichever of Alliance or Sinn Féin they’ve been happily, often enthusiastically, giving their second preferences to for years.
Well, perhaps and perhaps not. The breakdown of SDLP votes is interesting, but that is not relevant to what I asked. The question was, “Why would someone whose main motivation in voting is removing the border, vote for anyone other than FF?” If FF can pick up a significant number of this type of voter, lets call them ‘Nationalists’, I think they’ll do fine. BTW, I don’t see why Alliance think they would be more attractive to your notional ‘middle of the road’ SDLP voter than FF. But as I said, that’s not what I originally asked.
Well, I’d hardly be the only person who couldn’t tell the difference between FF and FG! In practice, FG seems to exsit purey in order to provide some semblance of opposition to FF. So, if FF organised in the North, then so would FG. The SDLP and Alliance, like the UUP, are empty husks anyway, like the mainland British parties. Whatever replaces Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems, together with FF and therefore also FG, could and should provide a much healthier, if rather crowded, alternative to the DUP-SF carve up.
“the DUP-SF carve up.”
Typical centrist arrogance. The carve up of which you speak was actually the result of a free and fair election.
“Well, I’d hardly be the only person who couldn’t tell the difference between FF and FG! In practice, FG seems to exsit purey in order to provide some semblance of opposition to FF”.
True and many a Labour, Sinn Fein or Green supporter would agree with you. That said if you examine the two parties, while there is a huge overlap between the two of them they are anchored in two quite different concepts of Irishness. The difference between the SDLP and Alliance Party (or perhaps the difference between the Alliance and UUP) would be a crude analogy – to Republicans and Hard Line Unionists they can’t spot the difference, however as two parties while having overlapping elements they are anchored in two different bases.
Hence a different reaction to organising on a 32 county scale between the two parties. Go to rte.ie to watch last night’s “questions and answers” to get an idea. As to what will happen – I’d split the difference between Sammy and David.
Sinn Fein to eventually lose a little ground, FF-SDLP to be organised an all Ireland basis, One mainstream unionist party in reaction to this. Irish Labour (or in alliance with British Labour if they allow organisation) having a small presence like the Greens, and a handful of Tories for ex-UUP types that don’t like “Ulster Nationalism”. Some change but not all that was before swept away.
In reality, post-IRA, what is the difference between SF in the North and FF in the South?
Dubliner,
interesting post. I too wonder about where the dynamic for unity will come from. But it’s not just much of the northern electorate that is happy with things as they are.
Watching Q&A last night you could see that many were horrified at the appalling new vista FF could open up by moving north. People are afraid of the unknown, especially people with something to lose or nothing to gain.
Sammy,
I’m sure FF would be more than happy to see a noticeable greening of Alliance as a side-effect of their move north.
It would be interesting to see how Alliance would deal with having a strong or even majority nationalist constituency within its ranks.
Was just chatting to a mate of mine who knows about these things. Apparently, six hours after setting up, Fianna Fáil are now the biggest student society at UU Magee. The word from Derry is that they have been inundated with interested parties. SF must be seething!
Sammy,
I’m sure FF would be more than happy to see a noticeable greening of Alliance as a side-effect of their move north
Sammy it might be of interest to know that FF has been trying to join the Alliance Party’s group in Europe. While they were unsuccessful in the past few years in getting into the liberal group, the re-integration of the remaining PDs into Fianna Fail will facilitate that – I look forward to FF and the alliance party working together at European elections!
Breakingnews says Ógra FF have recruited 41 at Magee and only need 20 to form a society. Source is an FFer so make of it what you will.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhcwsneyaucw/
I still don’t get this, I’m afraid: FF might very well want to be a 32-County party, but why would they want anything to do with the SDLP, and why would it want anything to do with them? There is nothing remotely Social Democratic or Labour about FF.
>There is nothing remotely Social Democratic or Labour about FF.
There is nothing remotely Social Democratic or Labour about the SDLP. In fact, there is nothing remotely Social Democratic or Labour about the British Labour Party. You’d be surprised how many Bertie style Socialists there are about. And SF, sure “they’re a Marxist party”.
Well, Briso, isn’t it time that Social Democratic and Labour people throughout these islands had new parties to vote for? What are we doing about it?
But I stand by my point: the SDLP’s commitment to such things might be decidedly watered down these days, but FF is, and has always been, a plain and simple party of the Right. I know of at least one erstwhile FF Senator who simultaneously took the Tory Whip as an hereditary peer of the United Kingdom! How is this ever going to work? I just can’t see it.
David,
Edward Haughey was one of 11 senatorial appointment’s that are constitutionally within the Taoiseach’s remit to appoint. He wasn’t an FF senator, he was an independent.