Well, if it is serious about organising in Northern Ireland, Bertie Ahern will have to build from the bottom up as well as any top down deal with the SDLP. Politics.ie reports that it will recruiting at Queens and the University of Ulster tomorrow and Wednesday. It comes on the heel of Alisdair McDonnell’s statement that his party, the SDLP, and FF will firm up ties (“five, six, seven years”?). You can hear a fascinating full interview here.
It’s not published until 3rd March, but one book I recommend you place an advance order for from Slugger’s Bookstore is James Harkin’s Niche. Belfast émigré Harkin examines a number of stories from business, culture and politics and comes to a single insight: everywhere the broad middle is collapsing. He offers Woolworths as an iconic exemplar [...] read our review »
What was life like for children of political activists during the Troubles? A new book by Bill Rolston and published by Guildhall Press during the summer has collected together the stories of twenty Children of the Revolution whose parents’ activities – and in many cases, imprisonment – had a significant affect on childhoods and life [...] read our review »
Well, I think it’s fair to say that he wouldn’t have had, nor will he have, much truck with the SDLP! Nor it with him, of course.
Sinn Fein are only marxist when it suits them, they aren’t a famous wood varnish and they don’t do exactly what it says on the tin.
David Lindsay
To be honest, I don’t think you grasp Irish politics. If you’ll forgive me, I think you’re taking a British metric and applying it to Irish politics. And you admit, you’re utterly confused by what you find.
In order to understand Irish politics, you have to understand that it’s a different ballgame from the one they play across the water. What might in British politics seem like idiosyncrasies or inconsistencies, don’t seem that way on this side of the Irish Sea. And that’s as true for unionist parties as nationalist or republican ones.
You might be confused, but you’ll find Irish parties aren’t. This is perhaps why Fianna Fáil have every chance of succeeding where the Conservative Party has always failed.
That should have read:
“You might be confused, but you’ll find Irish VOTERS aren’t.”
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if FF did well at the northern unis, simply because a lot of young people from the Republic study at them. I did the careers fairs at UU last year for my company and at Magee especially, I think I spoke to more people from Donegal and other border counties than from NI.
Sammy,
I think a lot of people might be surprised how well the mexicans do in the north and the chucks are spoofin when they pretend to be unconcerned,the ones i talked to are takin it as a potential disaster after their failures in the south.(ff stole their plan and reversed it) FF are going to be askin northern nats to vote for the irish govt. for the first time and will play it as such and i can’t see how they will lose. Their is little residue bitterness at the freestaters from the generations of voters sf now attract and they are vunerable. SF are going to be askin their voters in the north not to vote for them capitalist swines cos they sold us out (ahem just forget about us recognising the psni)i.e. not to vote for the taoiseach’s party with a record of economic delivery. Ask the stoops how fickle the electorate is. Plus the potential to piss off unionists with dublin ministers in stormont cannot be ignored (and apparantly cannot be achieved by sf). This could be the choce a lot of nats. have always been lookin for ask any gaa supporter in the north.
When I say FF are the natural party of government I say it with resignation rather than arrogance.
I think you may be a bit too hasty in declaring the End of History here. Any left of centre party that joins up with FF tends to be bitten badly in the polls after (and there’s been plenty of public buyers’ remorse from Green voters) and transfer patterns tend to be pro- or anti-FF still. Bertie lucked out on the timing of this election; a year earlier or a year later and he would likely have lost badly. Still, politics is partly about riding your luck and Bertie is a master politician. Does Michael Martin have the same political skills? I don’t think so.
The Alliance is in the Liberal group in Europe – FG is in the Christian Democrats any chance you’d join the CDs instead (if the UUP merged with the DUP)?
I actually think the move would be the other way. There’s no reason why FF couldn’t join the Christian Democrats (more fitting than that weird Tory/Gaullist/FF/Czech nationalist group or whatever it is they’re in this week). FG would fit more comfortably into ELDR in any case; especially as it’s now part of a bigger centrist group called ALDE in the European Parliament and the PDs seem to be a busted flush. Alliance is in the right grouping; we’re way too secular and lefty-liberal to fit in with the Christian Democrats and in any case, we’re liberal by ideology in a way that FF and FG aren’t particularly anything by ideology.
why would they think ‘SF are more likely to deliver that objective’?
I think you’re asking the wrong questions here. First question, why would people who are happily voting SF defect to Fianna Fáil and, second, how many SDLP voters have a United Ireland (as opposed to a pluralist and fair Ireland) as top priority.
I don’t see why Alliance think they would be more attractive to your notional ‘middle of the road’ SDLP voter than FF
Firstly, habit – people are used to happily giving us their number 2 and on occasions their number 1, FF are new and strange, perhaps like the Tories once were sexy for an election or two but then it will be gone.
Secondly, the SDLP’s middle-class base is heavily dominated by public sector workers and the liberal professions, a more comfortable fit with Alliance’s card-carrying liberalism than FF’s culshie capitalism.
Thirdly, FF nationalism is probably too capital N for many crypto-Redmondite SDLP voters.
Fourthly, the Shinners are probably more appealing to the darker Green end of the SDLP’s vote than FF (again, partly economics and partly habit). And everyone here seems to be ignoring the sheer ruthless efficiency of Sinn Fein’s ground machine in the North. FF are supposed to be challenge that with a few Dublin consultants, and the SDLP machine minus the SDLP members who wouldn’t touch the Fáilers with a bargepole? Dead on.
How many potential FF voters are there in Beechmount or the Bogside? And for different reasons, in the Waterside or Fortwilliam? I don’t see many. Sure, there’s the rural West, but that’s an area where the Shinners are just wearing the SDLP away in election after election, and it will take a lot to shift them. Sure the electorate are fickle, but the SDLP were organisationally dying in many places when political events gave the Shinners their big boost in the mid to late ‘90s. The Shinners are not a dying organisation anywhere.
Typical centrist arrogance.
Ginfizz, I don’t think yer man is a centrist!
I’m sure FF would be more than happy to see a noticeable greening of Alliance as a side-effect of their move north
Given the way the UUP is collapsing, I would guess it would be growing and broadening rather than necessarily greening. Either way, I would welcome it. Both the UUP and SDLP have large numbers of voters and even elected representatives who would fit quite happily in the Alliance coalition. I’m greener than a lot of SDLP people I know; real-life party divisions are usually more blurred than those on Slugger.
what is the difference between SF in the North and FF in the South?
Right-on post-Marxism with a leaven of working class communitarianism versus gombeen capitalism. Quite a lot, actually.
Sammy it might be of interest to know that FF has been trying to join the Alliance Party’s group in Europe.
ALDE (as opposed to ELDR) is diverse enough to accommodate FF comfortably, but see above as to what I think the logical result of musical chairs should be. Logic doesn’t always work, of course!
the chucks are spoofin when they pretend to be unconcerned,the ones i talked to are takin it as a potential disaster after their failures in the south
They’re right not to be too cocky. But I have no vested interest in that fight and I don’t think they’ve much to worry about.
why would they think ‘SF are more likely to deliver that objective’?
I think you’re asking the wrong questions here.
I hate it when people do that. I asked the question I wanted answered. You did tackle it anyway though, so thanks.
First question, why would people who are happily voting SF defect to Fianna Fáil
Because they are against partition. Fianna Fail are a serious party in the 26 and are a frequent party of government. They have (almost) no baggage associated with the violence of the troubles in the eyes of Unionists or those Nationalists who could never vote for them and, through a long process of engagement, are trusted by Unionists in a way Sinn Fein never will be. For those whos support the GFA (supposedly ALL SF voters) the way to a united Ireland is through a majority vote in a referendum. This will never be achieved without FF taking an active role in the south to bring the 26 county electorate on board. Put simply, Northern basket case, no unity. John Humes mantra about uniting the people being a pre-requisite to truly uniting the country remains true. Sinn Fein will never deliver that. It would also be much more likely where Unionists were less antagonistic. Some might even vote for it then, not many, but enough. If the Garden centre unionists stay at home,… Martina Anderson anyone? A united Ireland where SF are an irrelevant rump is both more likely and less frightening.
FF ministers are players on the international stage. Since Hume retired, we have had no-one of similar stature. Bertie is quite likely to end up President of the Commission, or at any rate, in a top international job.
FF are not playground Marxists. SF have proven in the Southern Election that they have no clue about economic development. FF have a proven track record and are in a perfect position to harmonise infrastructure and planning across the border with ministers in the North and Government in the South.
Much of Sinn Feins vote is softer than people realise. People in Derry, which you focused on, can see every day what FF has done in Donegal, probably the last and least in the queue. We go to Letterkenny to the swimming pool for God’s sake. We almost all have relatives actually living West and North of the border and still practically in Derry. We buy our petrol in Muff, Killea, Bridgend. We eat out in Buncrana, Moville, Greencastle and paddle in Lisfannon. The development of Donegal is in our faces all the time and we want some of that!!! FF wants to develop the links to North Donegal and wants to do it through Derry. The minute they stand in Derry, the SDLP is finished. In Derry. Stalingrad.
SF cannot compete with this either and will lose a significant number of votes.
and, second, how many SDLP voters have a United Ireland (as opposed to a pluralist and fair Ireland) as top priority.
Plenty, especially where they are strong. They recognise that a pluralist and fair united Ireland is the only one worth having. Why do these SDLPers who give you a second preference not give Alliance their first preference? Is it because they’re neutral on the border? Well, then you should come first. Is it because they like you better than the rest? I would think so. They vote SDLP because they want a united Ireland. They’ll vote FF in huge numbers, whether or not there is a ‘deal’.
sammaguire I vote FF because they get things done.
Excuse me for a moment while I pick myself off the ground laughing.
Wolfe Tone young Irishmen like me in Belfast [..] want a United Ireland and can see the vision with which FF will achieve it. It is based on peace and trust with the Orange tradition…
Funnily enough, Orangism’s position is not based on peace and trust with you – it is based on having lots of guns, the willingness to whip its population into using them, decades of driving out tens of thousands of nationalists in order to retain its majority and the backing of a larger power which fulfils the role of ‘Deus Ex Machina’ in this whole scenario in order to pursue its geopolitical objectives.
Your idea of ‘peace and trust’ is therefore a little naive to say the least, and not a little spineless. If you can’t even analyse the situation correctly in language then what hope have you of altering it in fact?
As so often in northern irish and irish politics, there is a great deal of fog and cofusion about what this all actually means and where it’s all going. (This fog is the result of intereference in the the normal functioning of our politics on this island). Do people really believe that Fianna Fáil want to take responsibility for a situation that remains volatile and dangerous? Do they want to get involved in the possibility of another Drumcree over the coming decade? Would their political advisers in the south allow them to risk the destabilisation of the government of the republic by becoming embroiled, definitively, with affairs in northern ireland? What if unionists wished to outflank them or bring about a certain desired political outcome by engaging in a violent incident around which to polarise opinion – would Fianna Fáil, after almost a century of pursuing a policy of sealing up all northern troubles on the other side of the border, leave themselves open to that? What if nationalists wished to outflank them by engaging in a similarly destabilising series of politically charged incidents? What if nationalists wished to spread the effect of such politically charged events throughout the whole island by involving a northern based Fianna Fáil in such things? Do people really think Fianna Fáil will allow themselves to be open to such things?
On the other hand, perhaps with the soon-to-come parity of numbers between unionist and nationalists in n. ireland Fianna Fáil feel they can no longer avoid the situation and feel the need to get involved. Doesn’t mean, of course, that they won’t be vulnerable to the things I’ve just outlined above. Perhaps with the coming economic difficulties in the south it suits Fianna Fáil to wrap the green flag around them again in order to deflect attention from their abysmally underperforming governance during this time of great opportunity. Or perhaps Fianna Fáil believe that a combination of re-integrating to some extent with the UK while pursuing more all-Ireland economic policies with the blessing of unionist business people will be enough to take the sting out of the tail of this particular conflict?
One thing seems to be sure, Fianna Fáil are not doing this simply because they are interested in a united Ireland – their track record of complete abandonment of and lack of interest in northern nationalists is proof enough of that.
In which case there is no reason to suppose that they’re any more likely to pursue an independent united Ireland than they are to pursue a sort of Home Rule within a re-integrated ‘British Isles’. The evidence would appear to indicate this latter scenario above all.
“FF ministers are players on the international stage. Since Hume retired, we have had no-one of similar stature. Bertie is quite likely to end up President of the Commission, or at any rate, in a top international job.
FF are not playground Marxists. SF have proven in the Southern Election that they have no clue about economic development. FF have a proven track record and are in a perfect position to harmonise infrastructure and planning across the border with ministers in the North and Government in the South.
Much of Sinn Feins vote is softer than people realise. People in Derry, which you focused on, can see every day what FF has done in Donegal, probably the last and least in the queue. We go to Letterkenny to the swimming pool for God’s sake. We almost all have relatives actually living West and North of the border and still practically in Derry. We buy our petrol in Muff, Killea, Bridgend. We eat out in Buncrana, Moville, Greencastle and paddle in Lisfannon. The development of Donegal is in our faces all the time and we want some of that!!! FF wants to develop the links to North Donegal and wants to do it through Derry. The minute they stand in Derry, the SDLP is finished. In Derry. Stalingrad.
SF cannot compete with this either and will lose a significant number of votes. ”
Aside from Bertie, I don’t think too many on this side of the border could pick out a Fianna Fail minister if they fell on them. Possibly Willie O’Dea because of the ‘tashe. And maybe Biffo. The charisma isn’t exactly hanging off too many of them. And therein lies the problem. There’s a fair chance that Cowen will replace Bertie before the 2011 target of FF in the NI Assembly elections. There’s an affinity from Northern Nationalists to Bertie because of his work in the peace process and because he’s an affable cute hoor. As for Cowen, from what I’ve seen of him, the BIFFO acronym is as accurate as can be.
Hume had a certain something that could appeal to an international audience. Mallon came off as a likeable, intelligent guy. They appealed to the moderate Nationalist constituency and as such Post Agreement you had your Statesman and your Deputy First Minister. A perfect illustration of maximum utilisation of resources.
Fast forward 10 years to Adams and McGuinness. Notice any similarities? Whatever Adams lack in substance on policy matters he still comes of as Statesman because of everything post ’94. The debate debacle will be forgotten in a couple of years, but Gerry Adams legacy will be of the man who led the IRA away from violence. That will still be there when Bertie’s at the trough in Brussels.
As for SF’s vote being soft, I would disagree. How much of the SF vote post 1998 is former SDLP voters that could be turned back and how much of it is new young voters? Delivery on local issues combined with the bigger picture is where SF’s success in the rural West of the Bann stems from.
As for FF wiping the floor with the SDLP in Derry I would also disagree. As you put it, whatever about Brid Rogders and Attwood’s posturing in ’01 about West Tyrone being Stalingrad, you’re correct, Derry is. However, you seem to underestimate the legacy of Hume and the SDLP in the City. As someone mentioned, it’s the only real SDLP machine left on the ground. Do you honestly think that they’ll lie down for FF and that people will abandon them in their droves? Whilst Derry and Donegal have strong ties, if FF make any impact in Derry in the short / medium term the nett result will be to elevate SF to win the Westminster seat.
Short of a merger / usurpation, it will take FF a generation to build a machine that is capable of matching the SDLP in Derry / South Belfast or matching SF in Tyrone, Fermanagh, Belfast, South Derry or South Armagh. Is it a case of “wrap the green flag around me boys (until 2016)”, or are they really here for the long haul?