Party manoeuvres
It seems Bertie Ahern wants Fianna Fail to head north to prepare to take on Sinn Fein in its electoral heartland with the absorption of/amalgamation with the SDLP possibly part of the long-term plan. On the Unionist side, the UUP have agreed to open talks with the DUP on an electoral pact and one of its MLAs, Billy Armstrong, has called for the DUP and UUP to amalgamate but his Mid-Ulster electoral maths is rather optimistic. Rumours of a new Unionist party continue to circulate. UPDATE An SDLP official comment does not reject the idea. UPDATE Yep FF are going to do it.
FF up North would not make any impact on Sinn Fein: SF are largely a party of the urban and rural poor – what have/can FF offer these people other than some vague “look we’re the republican party too” line, and some smart fellas in suits that just won’t fit in.
In my opinion, SF get more votes for being the best at putting the boot into the unionists than for any United Ireland/Socialist rhetoric – FF are even worse than the SDLP at booting the unionists: they have nothing else to offer.
FF up North would mean a split in the SDLP with some going to Labour (UK version), some going to Alliance and more going to Sinn Fein. How is this in FF’s favour?
As for the “new” dissident unionist party. It will occupy the same ground as multi-bob and will share his electoral fate. It’s not a viable runner, that’s why no-one cares.
“We in FF generally use the term “the occupied six countiesâ€
You in Fianna Fáil will say whatever you feel will put you in a good light and bring you advantage, all without actually engaging in any meaningful reality or risky adventure which might give substance to your vacuous and self-serving waffle. Gutless, third-rate, profoundly dishonest, sneering and bullying – a collection of people whose ascendancy in the politics of Ireland has been a disaster for generations and who still, true to form, manage to turn a time of opportunity into a time of lost opportunities, who manage to turn a time of potential wealth into a time of burdensome debt and rackrenting for huge numbers of people. A collection of unimaginative self-congratulatory half-pints. Intellectual and economic mediocrities and pocket-lining slobbering goons.
And pertinently, perhaps also a party that is as riddled with british agents as sinn féin itself. After all it was and remains critical for british political/military policies on this island that they have a sympathetic and reliable partner in the government in the south, otherwise managing the situation over the last 40 years and managing the peace process over the last 10 years would have been well nigh impossible. Moving agents into the upper echelons of the southern political elite would have been paramount. We know the british were operating agents in the garda special branch and that they influenced the irish media. We also know they came to agreements with the irish army at baldonnell airfield. We know section 31 was introduced. It would stand to reason that as part of their policy in the north, securing influential positions of state to their side in the south would be at the very least helpful if not in fact imperative. They may even have been doing this since 1921. In any case having agents in the universities, the trade unions, the RNLI, the media, the gardai, army and civil service would have been a logical extension of their attempt to isolate the IRA and secure the union of n. ireland to britain.
Travelling frequently to england as a ‘fan’ of Manchester United would be good cover for an agent. And indeed having an Irish cabinet minister on the payroll would be a very significant boon to british influence in ireland and they would be most interested in meeting up with someone so inclined. Especially at the beginning of a very sensitive and volatile ‘peace process’ in ’94. An interesting selection of foreign exchange transactions – including sterling – showing up around the place. If one were to make up cock and bull stories to explain such FX transactions, then who or what real source as yet unidentified might one be trying to hide?
One wonders…
Sammaguire- I agree M.L. is comfortable in SF and it is within that party I believe she could take a seat in D.C. if Bertie retires.
One point being slightly overlooked here is that if the FF takeover occurs, it must be borne in mind that the 16 SDLP MLAs are already successfully elected candidates and not some almost foreign entities from the south with no back-round in delivering for their constituents.
With all politics being local this should assist their morphing into FF and their successful re-election under a new banner which in turn could considerably bolster FF’s initial first steps northwards.
However I think that this possible realignment could also result in SDLP defections to Labour and FG who may feel forced to move with the times and copy FF’s move over the border.
F.G. debated a motion in their Ard Fheis last year to rename them F.G. “the United Ireland Party”- this tag was mistakenly added on to a website or advertisement before official clearance from party bosses and was subsequently corrected.
As JD says I think we should prepare for slow but sure realignments over the next few years.
“but not exactly a titan of political strategy anywhere outside the Ulster Unionist Party”
Sammy Morse
It was interesting to see Billy Armstrong rolling over yet again, this time espousing the merging of the UUP into the much larger and currently dominant DUP. Empey must be soooh happy that his Mid-Ulster genius is taking over the lead in promoting the new UUP policy of tickle-my-belly!
Billy, methinks, would appear to me to be over-confident that the DUP would ever select him anyway to run under that party’s ticket at any future election. [edited by moderator - play the ball not the man].
Now however would be a good time for the sad rump of elderly UUP ruling members still left in Mid-Ulster [edited by moderator] They owe it to the rest of the province’s loyal UUP members to drag themselves out from their hidey-holes and set about selecting a properly able and dependable UUP candidate for the next election.
Otherwise a well polished third party will be well placed to absorb the votes of all those unionists who are well & truly scundered with the UUP and irretreivably betrayed by the DUP. Jim Allister may be the key, but certainly not with the motley crew of disgruntled ex-DUP councillors that are presently trying to slink in behind him.
In Billys defense, if anyone actually seen the piece on the Politics Show yesterday he said he would like to see one united unionist party, he never mentioned that the DUP and UUP should merge.
However it was stupidity to come out with such a statement that could be misconstrued by the media and the general public alike. Again he did say he was speaking in a personal capacity but still, as he is a elected representative of the UUP it comes across as a UUP plan.
With regards to the electoral pact between the DUP and UUP, the UUP do not have much of a choice to to meet the DUP and see what their thinking is on it. However, the way in which the DUP announced this make it look like another PR stunt. Having it released to the press before Sir Reg Empey had even read it himself leaves many UUP members thinking the same way. But if the UUP don’t respond and dismiss this as a PR stunt, when it comes to the next elections and certain seats are lost because of two unionist candidates, the blame will fall at the door of the UUP.
Harry: “And pertinently, perhaps also a party that is as riddled with british agents as sinn féin itself. After all it was and remains critical for british political/military policies on this island that they have a sympathetic and reliable partner in the government in the south”
Hahahaha – does this get any better? Yes it does:
“In any case having agents in the universities, the trade unions, the RNLI”
Damn them securocrat lifeboat crew. Have you noticed that they only pull drowning prods out of the water? The brits are everywhere.
Here we go again, some of our unionist politicians using the hardy old rant that the Union is the only agenda and that it is at risk unless we join together. What a load of total codswallop. Can’t you see what is happening.
There is a big threat to the DUP that Jim Allister is going to drain support away from the DUP to his potentially new anti-agreement party. The DUP are panicking and see a merger, or at least a pact, with the poor naive UU to offset any possible loss of votes. By doing so, they not only negate Allister, but also become a much stronger DUP (with UU eventually subsumed within its ranks). It is now time that political parties, Unionist more so, stopped putting their single focus of the Union as the bedrock for all political decisions, such as Health, Economy, Education, etc. By doing so, they are unable to make the right decisions for Northern Ireland. This alleged threat to the union is manifest in everything the DUP do, and they whip up a frenzy of unionist support to keep in power. These are tactics no different to the Shinners from a nationalist perspective. Let’s hear them now squeal about FF wanting to come north.
I for one would like all political parties in the North, whether new or existing, to stand on their own principles and test their support through a proper and full democratic election, not just some scaremongering tactics by the extremes.
I suspect there is concern within the DUP regarding Allister but not panic.
Allister is a relatively well known figure and seems to not have Bob McCartney’s special brand of negative charisma. There is, however, a problem of the lack other generally well known faces for a new party. If a new party is set up, the councillors who have left the DUP will undoubtly be protrayed (by the DUP and media respectively) as disgruntled because they did not get jobs etc. or barmy bigots.
I have little doubt, however, that there is a constituency out there for a new party. I am sure it would be larger than McCartney’s because some voted DUP last time convienced that Paisley would not sell out and some abstained being convienced he wouild but not being prepared to vote for McCartney (OK Elenwe and myself respectively).
On a sort of DUP related note. I was at two different Free Presbyterian church services yesterday (we were visiting relatives) and there was absolutely no mention of politics. I think there are people who think the FPC spends its time preaching politics in church and as far as I can see such a thing must be very rare.
In terms of FF standing here in Northern Ireland it might remind Paisley and co that Ahern and FF are actually nationalists (nothing wrong with them being nationalists) and as such have an opposing long term vision (albeit apparently very long term) of the future of Northern Ireland.
The whole FF moving north is just a blinder played to take the heat off paisley’s buddy Vertie. As someone quite rightly pointed out their policies arent compatable with the six counties Nationalists. They would definately take the heat off SF’s poor showing in the Republic by havinbg an abysmal showing of their own, I don’t think too many northern nationaqlists will forget them sitting on the hands while the english government was allowed to slaughter them with out any objections from FF
It is however encouraging that so many loyalists are still predicting the anialation of SF at the hands of some future force. Just proves how out of touch unionism is with reality, they are there to stay for a while yet so you might as well reach accomodation with them because you no longer have the ability to gerrymander them out of power
I’m sure that Sluggerdom is way before me, but … a thought. First, though, a warning: I’m not quite sure how this posting is going to work out, except in an alphabetti-spaghetti of abbreviations.
FF is currently associated with some very curious bedfellows in the European Parliament. The Union for Europe of the Nations (i.e. the conservative right) and FF are incompatible (who, for heaven’s sake, wants to be in bed with the Italian Northern League?). In the Council of Europe, FF prefer to consort with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (nearest known cousins, the UK Lib Dems), where they sit more neatly.
Of course, FF’s natural home is with the European Peoples Party-European Democrats (but FG got there first). As I recall Marion Harkin breaks bread with that lot, too. That’s the EPP-ED from which Diddy Dave Cameron is bailing his Tories out (to considerable distress among some sitting Tories MEPs). Confused: we should be; but the EPP-ED is the nearest thing the Euro Parliament has to a “natural party of government” on the centre-right.
The SDLP and Irish Labour Party are both in the Party of European Socialists, along with the UK Labour Party. Which, of course, is the other “natural party of government” (or would be, if Blair’s lot hadn’t been screwed so badly last time round).
SF (that’s Mary Lou and Gerry) are in with the Confederal Group of the European United Left – Nordic Green Left (and therefore semi-detached from the Commies in the Parties of the European Left).
Why am I bothering with this garbage?
Well, I’ve just read the Irish Times report, and still cannot see where we’re being taken. I cannot see what FF has to gain from taking a drenching in NI, and that’s surely what’s in prospect under existing conditions.
Where it could matter, in the Euro-theatre, Ireland (26 +/- 6) is dissipating its clout in the European Parliament (where, in any case, there has to be some consolidation of political interests if the damn thing is every going to count for anything). And there there is scope for some FF-SDLP argy-bargy.
So, is this whole thing a bit of kite-flying for Euro 2009?
Fianna Fail are Ireland’s version of British New Labour. There’s no reason why FF-SDLP couldn’t be a member of the PES. Sure didn’t Bertie decribe himself as a “Socialist”?
Allister is a relatively well known figure and seems to not have Bob McCartney’s special brand of negative charisma
In true pantomime style: oh yes he does!
It is however encouraging that so many loyalists are still predicting the anialation of SF at the hands of some future force
Actually, Sean, most of those ‘uns are Stoops or southern anti-Shinners. But you just keep living in that realm of self-delusion and righteous persecution. It’s so much nicer than dealing with reality.
BTW, Briso, Bertie’s popularity is in large part linked to the economic boom in the Republic. With the world economy looking a bit green around the gills, the Republic is in for a rocky time economically at which point people will be less inclined to turn a blind eye to Bertie’s business dealings.
I think you grossly overstate the potential vote for FF West of the Bann, and in any case they will be annihilated in Greater Belfast and Derry City.
Noises coming form the SDLP too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6998543.stm
I think there might be more in it this time. The context is changed slightly, with the Assembly looking stable and SF looking to be plateauing rather than on an up curve as in 1999 or 2001. Moreover the SDLP is fairly low down, and even a halt in the decline and small growth could be used as a positive for FF.
What I can’t see, though, is how it works if FF just subsumes the SDLP. It’s a change of branding which would help, and possibly some sense in election strategy, but to be truly effective it would require either a change of leadership or a change in policy, or both. The first doesn’t seem possible, and the second might not go down too well and runs into the kinds of problem that SF have crossing jurisdictions.
I think having another serious party would be a plus for Nationalism, though.
“I think you grossly overstate the potential vote for FF West of the Bann, and in any case they will be annihilated in Greater Belfast and Derry City.”
An SDLP merged FF would probably do alright in Derry. Greater Belfast, with the possible exception of South Belfast, would be a kicking.
But then, what’s new? In the short term, all FF have to do is SF’s momentum. Oh, and even running a non headless chicken campaign could deliver a few extra seats for them. I still can’t get over 3 SDLP running in West Tyrone.
So, the FF move to the North is confirmed, but for Assembly only. How can this work? If there is to be a merge with the SDLP, how can they say that they don’t want to contest Westminster elections? Will they leave the way open for SF or Independents? I do not see it pushing the Unionists into a pan-unionist coalition as they, like the SDLP are not in the habit of doing deals with SF, therefore ruling out a pan-nationalist front (as the DUP keep trying to scare unionists with).
One to watch with interest. Only the electorate will prove whether it is a good move or not.
All that is happening here is that the parties are re-organizing themselves around the loyalties of the people. Which haven’t changed.
Labour politics has never been the natural home of the small farmer patriots of Ireland, North or South. Your Derry GAA man is much like your Kerry GAA man. Their natural home is in a merged FF-SDLP.
As religion slowly fades from view, the other tribe of Ireland, made up of the Norman Fine Gaelers and Ulster Unionists will narrow their differences. Take a generation, though.
As for the Shinners, they never really understood the difference between Nationalism and Republicanism, but I think they’re gonna find out soon.
“BTW, Briso, Bertie’s popularity is in large part linked to the economic boom in the Republic. With the world economy looking a bit green around the gills, the Republic is in for a rocky time economically at which point people will be less inclined to turn a blind eye to Bertie’s business dealings.” – Sammy Morse
Bertie was popular long before he along with McSharry, McGreevy, Haughey, et al in FF, devised the economic policies and provided the management that underpin the “economic boom.” It’s also not a case of turning a “a blind eye to Bertie’s business dealings.” Those matters are being diligently investigated by a Tribunal, so it’s ridiculous to claim that a blind eye is being turned when they are being inspected under a microscope on behalf of the citizens and the state by said Tribunal and a pack of lawyers and a judge. It’s a case of waiting until the Tribunal reports before any conclusions are drawn. That, incidentally, is what mature democracies and their electorate do – also called being innocent until proven otherwise.
Kensei, I don’t see any realistic option other than an alliance with the SDLP (and for no purpose other than to neutralise SF). If they go for a merger, then it will be two seperate FF parties, one north and the other south. That may not be a bad thing for 32-county nationalism, as it will inevitably force unity onto the political agenda.
Still haven’t answered the question about how the Westminster elections will be organised if FF aren’t interested in running. A northern FF as The DUBLINER suggests wouldn’t work within these parameters.
Who knows?
“Those matters are being diligently investigated by a Tribunal, so it’s ridiculous to claim that a blind eye is being turned when they are being inspected under a microscope on behalf of the citizens and the state by said Tribunal and a pack of lawyers and a judge. It’s a case of waiting until the Tribunal reports before any conclusions are drawn. That, incidentally, is what mature democracies and their electorate do – also called being innocent until proven otherwise.”
I’d humbly suggest that if the economy was taking a dive at the time of the last election there would have been a bit more anger directed at Bertie. I’d suggest the Republic’s electorate are actually more or less like everywhere else’s.
“Kensei, I don’t see any realistic option other than an alliance with the SDLP (and for no purpose other than to neutralise SF). If they go for a merger, then it will be two seperate FF parties, one north and the other south. That may not be a bad thing for 32-county nationalism, as it will inevitably force unity onto the political agenda.”
An alliance short of a merger won’t work, especially if they are still branded SDLP. Really, what’s changed in that event? It’s not even symbolic. They’ll get a kicking from SF and probably won’t even halt the decline.
Grouch, I have to agree that it doesn’t make sense. SF don’t take their seats at Westminister, so they have no advantage over a FF party which won’t contest them – only the SDLP can claim that advantage. However, does FF really expect the SDLP to give up its Westminister seats if it merges? Hardly. And not merging will only take votes from the SDLP, working to SF’s advantage. There simply is no advantage to FF in going north – just don’t underestimate the contempt that certain FF’ers hold SF (and the role that might play). We’ll just have to see how it all pans out. It sounds like Dermot is thinking aloud – not smart politics.
Kensei, it could be that most people don’t think he has a case to answer beyond how he has already answered it and that most of the rest are prepared to wait for the Tribunal to report – if for no reason other than reasoning that it is a waste of money having a Tribunal if you condiser its findings to be a mere surplus appendex to the public grilling.
páid @ 04:17 PM:
Labour politics has never been the natural home of the small farmer patriots of Ireland, North or South.
May I politely query that as an omnibus statement?
Some patches in FF’s coat-of-many-colours borrow from Labour. Consider Diarmaid Feriter’s The Transformation of Ireland, 1900-2000, page 412 in the paperback edition:
‘The mainstream Labour Party failed to develop into a political force capable of challenging the two larger parties, partly because Fianna Fáil had stolen many of their ideological clothes in the 1930s. Indeed, many Fianna Fáil members were to maintain throughout the century that they were in effect the real Labour Party of Ireland.’ This is the basis of Bertie’s 2004 claim, and repeated by Charlie McCreevy on 6 Nov 2005 (see earlier in this thread).
It is notable that, when FF stumbles, Labour surges (historically, that was most notable in 1943, when there was a mushroom growth of some 600 new Labour Party branches). To a lesser extent, something similar happened in the 1960s, but was out-flanked by Sean Lemass’s party-management (and not helped by the cynicism of FG’s attempts to look leftish-of-centre).
There is the curious ability of Labour to survive (and even prosper) in Wexford and Kerry (OK: the Spring feudal fiefdom).
Then there is the oddity of Clann na Talmhan, which began as a know-nothing movement, became an organised political party in 1938, and survived into the 1950s. That’s surely symptomatic of a radical tradition in the small-farmer community. It’s certainly a tendency that FF has needed to be assiduous in tending. What killed the Clann was not the lack of rural radicalism, but the depopulation of the countryside.
And what about the whole co-operative movement, all the way from the social-Catholicism of the early 1900s via Fr McDyer at Glencolumcille to the present day?
I suggest that we need to be careful in distinguishing the Labour Party from a wider view of “Labour politics”. Across Ireland (and Europe) the small-farmer has shown a tradition of radicalism. FF may have been adept at harnessing the “small farmer patriots”, but rarely been oblivious to their mindset.
If — if — FF and the SDLP (or any other combination of the political elements, 26 +/- 6) can act as a focus for, say, the public service, agriculture, the employed, the aspiring suburbans, that’s a potent and unbeatable force. But I doubt that narrow “nationalism” will feature as the glue in such a coalition.
The outcome of a FF move north would inevitably be a new dynamic that urges FF in the south to promote a unity agenda, if for no other reason than FF candidates in the north would want FF in the south to be more focused on that aim in order to increase their own voter base. Since the current policy doesn’t envisage a border poll occurring until after the northern economy and its political institutions are stabilised in a couple of decades, at the earliest, doing anything that would promote a unity agenda beyond promoting peace and prosperity seems to conflict with the current policy.
In relation to Bertie, I always think that it is blackly comical when SF supporters talk about the need for politicians to not only have a scrupulous moral character, immaculate political judgement, and irreproachable integrity, but to be seen to have all of those things. They seem oblivious to the fact that they elected criminals, smugglers, bank robbers, extortionists, black marketers, murderers, and sociopaths of the first rank. Whatever ‘errors of judgement’ may afflict one or two Irish politicians, they don’t involve the Irish people “turning a blind eye†to people who engage in 25 million pound bank robberies for purely private gain, training FARC terrorists for millions of pounds in tax free profit, or supporting a sectarian mass-murder campaign, just so long as they get an Irish Language Act – or whatever the price of turning a blind eye to the characters of those they vote for involves.
“If — if — FF and the SDLP (or any other combination of the political elements, 26 +/- 6) can act as a focus for, say, the public service, agriculture, the employed, the aspiring suburbans, that’s a potent and unbeatable force. But I doubt that narrow “nationalism†will feature as the glue in such a coalition.”
I think you are too quick to dismiss patriotism as glue that binds disparate groups together. Not enough on its own, certainly these days, but there were points in the past where it would have been close.
SDLP Statement here:
http://elblogador.blogspot.com/2007/09/sdlp-comments-on-fianna-fils-designs-on.html
kensei @ 05:38 PM:
Nationalism is undoubtedly our legacy from the past.
And, noting the wider history of Europe over the last century or so, not one to cherish greatly.
I, like many of the older generation, was indoctinated with the mantra of “land is life”. I now see that is Karl Marx writing on Fenianism in 1867, citing a Justice Blackburne, and (with some justification) convincing himself that Ireland was substantially an agricultural country.
Such was the basis of the nationalism of 1916, when the “blood sacrifice” gave Irish Nationalism that extra toxicity. Exactly 100 years after Marx, Tommy Makem’s metaphor of “four green fields” indicates its lasting potency (despite Dominic Behan’s comment on Brookeborough, 1957, warning us of its dangers).
As late as 1997 Ireland was one of only three EU15 countries with 10% employed in agriculture. I see that only 5% of the RoI working population are now described as “farmers”. In NI, only 15% of the population are “rural”.
My inference from that is the link between land and nationalism becoming less immediate, less relevant, though not yet void. Most people’s notion of “land” is now a 25-year mortgage on a semi in the suburbs.
We are employed in and by multi-nationals. Our horizons are necessarily wider that Makem’s in 1967.
Every Dubliner may daily recall Parnell’s Cork speech of January 1885: ‘… no man has the right to fix the boundary to the march of a nation. No man has a right to say to his country: Thus far shalt thou go, and no further; and we have never attempted to fix the ne plus ultra to the progress of Ireland’s nationhood, and we never shall.’
I think it’s time also to remember his immediately-previous sentence: ‘It is given to none of us to forecast the future, and just as it is impossible for us to say in what way or by what means the National question may be settled, in what way full justice may be done to Ireland, so it is impossible for us to say to what extent that justice should be done.’
“There simply is no advantage to FF in going north”
Agreed ,if they were to do it one fell swoop.
But over the long term and the softly softly approach – it may be worth doing. It is worth exploring from an FF point of view. They are on record as saying they won’t contest elections (for Westminister at any rate) – so what is the prize they are weighing up?
First I think this is aimed at isolating SF in the Border belt. To do that they could it is important to protect Foyle and South Down for the SDLP at the next, yes, Westminster election.
Secondly, an agreed (SF/SDLP) candidate in West Tyrone, stands a chance of replacing Kieran Deeny and running Pat Doherty very very close. Defending two seats and even taking West Tyrone would stop the SF bandwagon on the border. Seems to be to be a prize worth going for , as for the Dail, this strategy would stand a very good chance of impacting three of the four SF TD’s, who only got elected in the 9/10th count. It also brings an absolute FF majority into play.
Not winning West Tyrone would not be a disaster…as FF could position it as early days (and disengage if hey thought there were going to look stupid prgogressing with the plan)
A win though would changes the momentum significantly. It means leaving Belfast for the longer term – but so be it. As DK would out it ” SF are largely a party of the urban and rural poor” This move reinforces that.
On the reverse side – doing nothing will leave leaves five SF Wstminster seats along the border belt, no long term partner for FF north of the border, and SF with the chance of 2 TD’s in Donegal next time around, as the Bertie factor will no longer be in play.
An active strategy by FF may take SF to one TD, the do nothing may leave SF with 7 TD’s. The smoke and mirrors, up North may be hiding the real prize of consolidation of FF stranglehold down south.
I am struggling to see how this would split the SDLP if it starts with a lose association – and a split now would leave more, than the rump that would be left be after the next Westminster elction.
Pia Lugum
I too heard about Armstrong’s poor performance at the Rainey [edited by moderator play the ball not the man].His call for unionist unity must be someone elses idea.
Why he now wants to talk to the “chuckle chumps” I will never know.The Dups have sold their soul for “twenty pieces of silver” just as Big Ian put power before god.Watching and listening to what McCrea does.
Malcolm,
Your view of the situation is more or less mine.
Class politics and Socialism never had the roots of dark, satanic mills in Ireland, outside of Belfast.
And I agree that FF, like the plain people of Ireland have always had a strong communitarian streak, forged in the 19th Century land struggle perhaps, and threatened today by the tiger.
A good example of FF outperforming Labour IMO is the current Limerick renewal situation, where whole sink estates are being completely knocked and rebuilt.
Not hamstrung by ideology, not tolerant of criminals, and not short of money from the economy, stunning amounts are to be spent in order to get the place contributing instead of draining.
Labour would send in social workers, the Tories would send in more police, FF have the commonsense approach.
I don’t vote for them BTW!
And I realise my statements are omnibus and tabloidy, put that down to laziness. I admire your erudition.
Bretagne @ 07:04 PM:
Yes, I see where you’re going to; and it has some logic.
On the other hand, I had a quick flick at the May 2007 figures. SF’s problem was that they could not attract the transfers, virtually anywhere. As long as the electors were offered alternative routes for their later preferences, they took them.
That leaves SF with two options:
* build the first-preference vote (“D’oh!”) and/or
* somehow achieve a lifeline from transfers.
In the case of that second option, surely we need to hear the other shoe drop.
By that I mean there has to be some re-alignment on the Left. We don’t know the electorate’s more-considered view of the Greens in bed with Bertie. Nor what they will make of Labour’s retreaded-virginal shriek of “No, no! A thousand times no! I’d rather die than say Yes!”
Either of those re-appraisals means options for transfers open up or close.
As for the other option, maximizing first preferences, we need to look at the constituencies.
Only Cavan-Monaghan delivers an “over-the-top” result. CaoimhghÃn Ó Caoláin hit a neat 100% of the quota, on a 20% share of the valid vote, 2.5% up on 2002 (but dwarfed by Brendan Smith’s 6% leap). Any update on Kev’s present state-of-health, by the way/
The seat SF could have, and perhaps should have taken was Donegal SW, with 21.2% of the valid vote, 85% of a quota. Pearse Doherty ran close, but no cigar. That seems to me the main target seat. However, it seems that Bertie has already beefed up (no pun intended) FF’s status in SW by giving Mary Coughlan rights of agricultural and fishing largesse.
Nor do I see that the other three “border” constituencies offering SF much hope, without something nuclear occurring. SF had 15% of the vote, 75% of a quota in Louth; 11.7% of the vote and just 47% of a quota in Sligo-Leitrim and a dismal 8.4% of the vote, and 33.7% of a quota in Roscommon-Leitrim. Admittedly, all these run a bit ahead of their national performance.
North and west of the border, SF no longer have the kudos of being the opposition. If government is making choices, it’s also having to take the blame as well as the credit for those choices. All the research I have seen implies that a party in government sees its natural level of support decline by 1 to 1.5% a year. We are likely to see whether that rule-of-thumb (which, remember, is supposed to be the measure of what stick is acceptable for wife-beating) applies to SF and the DUP.
All in, then, I don’t see Bertie being motivated by any fear of SF.
It isn’t possible, is it, that he’s actually capable of altruism?
Commentors are reminded of the play the ball not the man rule
páid @ 08:52 PM:
Thanks for the undeserved nasturtiums.
As for Limerick getting the demolition ball, not before time, and it couldn’t happen to a more deserving spot.
I like your neat one liner of the party approaches (your fifth paragraph). I fully expect to recycle it it due course.
“And, noting the wider history of Europe over the last century or so, not one to cherish greatly.”
Nope, don’t buy it. Ranting against Nationalism is just like ranting against religion – it has produced both good and bad in great measure, and I switch off if you go a rant about how it causes all the world’s ills.
Malcolm – great post
Last bit first – Bertie is to altruism, what I am to ballroom dancing!
Looking at the transfers – as you say “As long as the electors were offered alternative routes for their later preferences, they took them”. I’d forgotton what a desert Donegal SW was for SF transfers.
I agree – that I am ahead of myself based on the current results – but maybe this, is the scenario Bertie is trying to kill at birth . I am struggling a bit to see the strageic value in organising North, except to save the two SDLP seats, and going after P Doherty.
And if we discount my dancing capability – Berties must see these seats tranferrring some value south of the border – but what is it?
I’m tuning into Q&A’s on RTE in a sec to find out.
kensei @ 10:28 PM:
Ah, yes, the heady mixed aroma of religion and nationalism! Just what we need for a juicy Armageddon!
God heard the assembled nations sing:
“Gott straffe England!” “God save the King!”
“God this!” “God that” “God everything!”
… “My God!” said God,
“I’ve got my work cut out!”
Bretagne, as a West Tyrone man I can say – without a shadow of a doubt – there’s absolutely no chance that Pat Doherty or any West Tyrone SF candidate will be beaten in a Westminster election. The SDLP seem to given up the ghost in the area and there’s a distinct possibility they will be down to 1 councillor in the current Strabane DC area and 2 in Omagh DC area after the next local election.
As for Foyle and South Down, it’s difficult to see the SDLP losing either.
“Bretagne, as a West Tyrone man I can say – without a shadow of a doubt – there’s absolutely no chance that Pat Doherty or any West Tyrone SF candidate will be beaten in a Westminster election.
Agree it is a long shot – though lets look at the numbers from 2005.
@Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein) 16,910 (38.9% -1.9%)
@Kieran Deeny (Independent) 11,905 (27.4%)
@Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,742 (17.8%)
@Eugene McMenamin (SDLP) 3,949 (9.1% -19.6%)
@Derek Hussey (UUP) 2,981
Electorate = 43,487
I agree the 2007 assembly election was implode for the SDLP fileding three candidates, and that is nearly the impossible hill to climb for any non-SF candidate.
Adding in Deeny and McMenamin would give an absolute maximum non-SF vote of 15800 – lets say there are 800 or so unionist in there.
So the gap is 2000 (best case for SDLP). In reality I would accept it is more likely 5000+, asssuming the SDLP voters get out and vote – and the question is how can that gap be decreased. (or defended from an SF point of view).
Now in comes Berties lads with the deal -(sorry, manifesto) for West Tyrone
I go for a road upgrade tween Castlederg and the N15 onto Transport 21… even dd a modest through pass of Castlederg as it is a shocker to drive though. (say £3m) Its in T21 alrady so a minor change could improve access to services etc.
About 5 miles single carraigeway needs realigned from memory.
A plan to use some services in Omagh Hospital paid for by Dublin – may be even a border area hub with the Donegal Community Hospital.
As an out of the sky suggestion, I suggest the extension of the the Bio-energy Establishment Scheme to western border regions.
Now this is about positioning – is is possible to win West Tyrone in one hit? That depends on when Gordon calls the election – but a list of 10-12 costed ideas such as above would dent Pats’ lead – particulary if Northern FF/SD MP’s were considered part of the FF parliamentary team in the Dail.
Hard, very hard, yes, I wouldn’t say never.
And even it it fails first time out – it puts SFon the defensive in the North. Strategically that may still be worth it.
This is going to make me look like a SF sycophant, but just because I’m realist doesn’t make it so. Bretagne, I don’t know if you’re from West Tyrone or not, you seem to know a fair bit about it but you seem to have no idea how inept the SDLP organisation is in WT.
West Tyrone is as safe a seat as Mid Ulster or Newry & Armagh for SF now. I’m not sure where this idea came from, but there seems to be a notion that Pat Doherty is a weak candidate despite having a 5,000+ majority in ’01 and ’05. This seems to stem from ’97 when he was beat into 3rd place by Willie Thompson and Joe Byrne.
That was a SF faux pax. Parachuting someone into a constituency only works when said individual has the necessary profile and this wasn’t the case 10 years ago. I mean the news and editorial staff of the main nationalist paper in West Tyrone didn’t even know Doherty was the SF VP the day after his candidacy was announced in 97. They were more shocked that it wasn’t Barry McElduff or Francie Mackey.
Anyway, the crux of your argument seems to be that all Deeny and SDLP votes are non SF votes. Possibly, but looking at the local election results on the same day, I could suggest that 2000 Deeny voters that day also voted SF locally and that would be equally valid.
In the long term could an FF / SDLP alliance lead to a resurgence in WT? I’d never say never, but the SDLP haven’t even hit rock bottom yet. Allow me some leeway to speculate.
Castlederg is up there as one of the most, how shall we say, ‘divided’ towns in the North. The Nationalist community of the Derg and Aghyaran are so staunch I wouldn’t be surprised if half of Joe O’Neill’s vote in the assembly election came from the Derg area alone. The SDLP had half a quota in ’05 – the promise of a new road *might* keep their vote static, but if they’ve 300 total votes in 09 in the Derg they’ll be doing well.
In Glenelly and Mourne, whilst Eugene McMenamin has the profile and in all probability at least 1 quota in Mourne, the same can’t be said in Glenelly, where the SDLP are now under a quota and this a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the near future.
Now that’s Strabane District Council for you and if they go down as low as a single councillor then I’m afraid that’s the end of the road.
Omagh just isn’t as critical YET. There’s a safe quota in Omagh for Jo Deehan who’ll be around a while, but if Pat McDonnell or in a more likely scenario Seamus Shields don’t stand they SDLP will be in serious bother in Mid Tyrone and West Tyrone. They had 6,000 odd votes in this year’s assembly election, by the time of the locals I’d estimate their vote will be somewhere in the region of 4,500-5,000. And if Deeny continues to talk about running candidates in the local elections then that might be overly optimistic.
The ONLY chance for a recovery in my humble opinion is Deeny throwing his lot in as the candidate in a FF / SDLP coalition then it could be in interesting, but I think there’s too much bitterness around from this years assembly elections for that to be a factor in the short term.
Original Sam Maguire -
Great post – comprehensive and apologies, I thought I had posted earlier
“The ONLY chance for a recovery in my humble opinion is Deeny throwing his lot in as the candidate in a FF / SDLP coalition then it could be in interesting,……”
Agree – this is the only chance- its not that I think Pat Doherty is weak, it just the alternative is terrible. I think the thrust of where I ended up, is that with FF coming North – the benefit of being an MP in Westminster is less and less, as the power lies in Stormont, and more in Dublin. Really an MP is more window dressing that anything else, for SF at any rate. That being the case, it is really how much has Pat Doherty delivered – (little as an MP), and how easily voters can be bought (Bertie is rather good at this).
People voting for Deeny as a FF/SDLP man, with access to the FF parliamentary party, and a long list of Berties “promises top pay the voter on demand” is a different proposition…..
If we take the current differential as 7000ish (by adding in your 2k ish), how much could that be dented?
With the lure of a few roads, maybe even rail etc for Derry- Lifford, Strabane and Omagh, ie how long would the shopping list need to be to dent SF vote? Raises uncomfortable questions about buying the vote – but thats FF’s record. Its also a strageic weakness for SF, that they wield no power as MP’s, whereas a FF/sdlp MP would (through Dublin), and SF have no sweeties to distribute. .
SO you arrive at a point that says (maybe)- I can lend my vote to FF/SDLP in West Tyrone for Westminster, as its abstentionist anyway, doesn’t hurt SF in the council or assembly, but we get a sweetie bag from Bertie”. What is the strageic value to FF in coming North if not to head SF off at the pass?