DUP seeks talks with the UUP
The DUP have written to the UUP seeking wide-ranging talks to “maximise the Unionist vote at future elections” and UUP leader Sir Reg Empey is considering it. While Westminster seats, and talk of early elections is probably most prevalent in minds, the impression is the talks will be more wide-ranging. In a interview Peter Robinson mentioned the Assembly election results:
“The Assembly election results demonstrated that greater co-operation between unionist candidates could have increased the total number of unionists returned to the Assembly”
In Westminster terms there are two clear target seats for Unionism, South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Another potential target is South Down, where the nationalist split gives a sole Unionist candidate an outside chance under first past the post a la West Tyrone in 1997, (at the Assembly elections the combined Unionist percentage was 32% compared with 31% for the SDLP and SF respectively in South Down) . The YU’s website have recently been discussing the issue of pacts even if one has remarkably high expectations of UUP future performance.
In Assembly terms, greater co-operation could regain a number of seats in key ‘East of the Bann’ constituencies and maintain the existing levels of representation in ‘West of the Bann’ plus maximise representation in the new council structures. A pact for European elections would also secure the second European seat.
Other potenital issues of common concern could be voter registration, turnout for all elections and vote/transfer management in the PR elections.
The UUP is already within an inch of its life – its like one of those seriously injured casualties in a medically induced coma in order just to keep it alive but who is going to try to bring it round and what are the chances it will emerge from this trauma unscathed or even at all. Some would argue its already in a PVS!
Its like Life on Mars where the Party is in a coma but living vicariously in its pre 1969 heyday oblivious to its actual predicament!
All this talk of doing a deal to survive, when most of the comments are really about Unionism and Nationalism. All the talk about pacts to keep the other side down are coming from Unionists. Surely that in itself is sectarian, or are we all so bigoted we cannot see. If we listen to Jonathan, Peter, Observer, Confused, et al we would not think there was any difference between the UU and DUP. In fact, maybe there isn’t and it is all a bit of a sham fight. I just cannot understand your thinking, and neither will any SDLP or SF supporter. I accept that tactical voting takes place, but that is democracy. Nationalists will vote UU to prevent DUP getting in because they recognise them as the bigots, likewise, some unionists (mainly UU) will vote for an SDLP candidate to prevent a Shinner getting in. Again, democracy and the people have the right to make that choice. What you are all suggesting is that we take the choices away from the electorate. By so doing you will find that the non-bigots will leave you and the bigots will go for the DUP. The DUP supporters given the choice of UU or Alliance or SDLP or SF will have no option but go for UU as they will be wrongly whipped up into a frenzy of fear about importance and threat to the status of Northern Ireland.
The SDLP have recognised that doing a deal with SF sends out the wrong message to Unionists that they support, albeit not fully, the principles and policies of SF – leaving their own supporters to believe that once the vote is ‘lent’ to the Shinners, it never comes back, but rather adversely affects other constituencies.
The bottom line in all of this is that we must avoid a two party state – it will only be the Shinners and DUP. Anyone who can’t see that is politically naive or blind. Please don’t force us all into the situation that we are going to vote in such a balkanised way. We have for too long voted on the sectarian or cultural lines and not for the politician who will do the most for us, hence the dearth of talented people. They avoid the mire of sectarianism and stay out of politics.
My message to the UU is: do a deal and you are no different from the DUP, so why not just go the whole hog and unite under a common banner. As Observer puts it – get used it, you’ll ‘all’ have a prod MP
I just love the way the nationalists are begining to panic, and urging us in the UUP not to do the deal. It has been said by a number of commentators on this site, but I’ll say it again anyway; they are running scared of a united Unionist front. No-one is suggesting that we and the DUPs carve up the ‘safe’ seats between us – you could run 5 Unionist candidates in Strangford and still not lose the seat – but the fact that FST and South Belfast are well within reach is obviously too much for many on this site. A massive propaganda victory and symbolic poke in the eye for nationalism would be the result. As I said yesterday, Northern Ireland needs a Unionist pact to cover the marginals, which regrettably, includes North Belfast as well. Any more infighting and dissension will simply hand the nationalists seats on a plate, with the fence sitters of APNI coming up through the middle. The Unionist cause cannot afford that. In Westminster terms, we’ve lost as many seats as we can afford. It is time to start winning them back. Any Unionist who speaks out against a plan to deprive SF/SDLP of seats is not worthy of that noble name. I support such a pact, not because I have any great love for the DUP (I do not) but because the cause of the Union is greater than any party politcal squabbles. Bothy parties were mature enough to see that in the 1980s after the AIA, and were mature enough to see that in Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Mid Ulster for many years. It is time to get that attitude of old back.
In terms of the Assembly, greater co-operation in certain constituencies should see the eviction of Paul Butler in Lagan Valley, once the boundaries change appropriately, the eviction of 1 nationalist in South Antrim, the eviction of 1 nationalist in North Antrim, the winning of the seat in West Belfast, the eviction of one of Maskey, McDonnell, Hanna or Lo in South Belfast, and the maintenance of the 4th Unionist seat in Upper Bann, East Londonderry, as well as holding our own in all other constituencies, notably the 3 seats in FST. Are Unionist politicians going to put their political principles above partisan politics? Whatever partisan differences we have, we are all Unionists, and the sanctity of the Union is all-important. An ‘electoral understanding’ is just what the Unionist community are crying out for. Too often we have been our own worst enemies. It is obvious from this site that some nationalists are afraid at the very whiff of Unionist co-operation in certain areas. Believe me, that is what the Unionist population at large wants.
Max Rep-
I haven’t seen any nationalist ‘running scared’ (whatever that means) either on this forum or elsewhere.
You also speak of “a united Unionist front”- funny to remember how for all those years the SDLP and SF were accused of forming a pan-nationalist front (which didn’t actually exist), yet now unionists are planning the same thing- should we nationalists kick up a fuss at this move?
Maximum Representation sounds like a DUP propagandist, trying to rally the troops around the united Unionist battle for supremacy, whoops, I mean the sanctity of the all important union – as if it were at risk. What a load of codswallop.
This is the favourite tactic of old unionism and new DUP. Stir up fear of an all Ireland and get the unionist to vote for donkeys, well maybe assess. Come off it ‘Maximum Representation’. Don’t call yourself a unionist, call yourself a bigot because that is all you are.
Too often these type of rantings lead to further alienation of our people, when we should be selling the East / West relationships and getting the best for ourselves from the North / South relationships. In real terms, you are expressing an extreme nationalist position – the the true sense of the word nationalist, which is one further step along the road to the BNP. Who’s next on your list once you put the taigs back in their place, the Blacks, Eastern Europeans, perhaps the Philipino nurses?
Get a life and stop peddling your pathetic propaganda. The union is safe until people don’t want it. Use your rhetoric to get our people united towards a better Northern Ireland for all, NOW.
A decade ago the DUP was Loyalist (faith before political belief) whereas the UUP were Unionist (political belief before faith) but today there is much of a muchness. If the Orange vote is to be maximised then a deal has to be done. But if a deal is none then what is the purpose of 2 unionist (sic) parties that have the same ideology? Especially when the DUP and the UUP have bought into the fundamental principles of the Good Friday Agreement, even if the St. Andrew’s Agreement was the GFA but for semantics.
So prey tell did the SDLP supporting Bobby Sands in FST in 1981 TWICE send out the wrong message to unionists .
Evidently so as some still talk about it.
Also stabbing Gerry Fitt in the back and handing West Belfast to Adams on a plate wasn’t a very embracing move to the unionist community.
At least my party never gave a paramilitary a free run!
Regarding FST unionist have 3.15 quotas, our 3rd seat isn’t going anywhere. The emergence of Gerry McGeough might prove a bit of a thorn in the side as he did relatively well for a dissident and said he’ll fight on again.
Tactical voting isn’t bigotted, people can use council elections to express their preferred unionist party the Westminster elections don’t offer it to them. Stoops don’t wine when unionists keep the Shinners out of SD or Foyle by supporting them, so why should they cry if unionists keep the shinners out in FST by voting DUP/UUP (whichever’s agreed).
Jonathan,
You claim that tactical voting isn’t bigoted and that’s true of just about every country in the civilized world.
Unfortunately in NI it isn’t the case. Peeps are so accustomed to the terms Unionist and Nationalist that they sometimes lose sight of the fact that these are euphemisms for sectarianism.
Grouch put it well above when he posted:
I concur. Most intelligent and talented peeps of my acquaintance are anything but bigots or sectarians, and for this reason wouldn’t dream of joining one of the main parties.
I wont say very much here, except that I am intrigued to note that Grouch (above) seems to think that by calling for a united Unionist approach to certain constituencies at the next election, I am in some way pushing a BNP-style agenda. I take great offence at this, and ask how any genuine heartfelt call to maximise Unionist representation can be construed as racism, sectarianism or any of the other ‘isms’ which have blighted society in Northern Ireland for too long? I’m not in the slightest bit interested who votes for Unionist candidates
I happen to support this proposal because I am a Unionist, and I don’t believe that anti-Unionists occupying approcahing half of Northern Ireland’s Westminster seats (including one with a clear Unionist majority in every election thus far) is good for Unionism. I am quite unconcerned about the religion of Unionists. Indeed, some fine Unionist public representatives have been Catholics in the past, from Sir Denis Henry to Sir John Gorman, and I would hope to see more in the future. Please don’t tell me I am a sectarian bigot when the opposite is clearly the case.
I just love the way the nationalists are begining to panic, and urging us in the UUP not to do the deal. It has been said by a number of commentators on this site, but I’ll say it again anyway; they are running scared of a united Unionist front.
I think your ideas are optimistic to the point of autism. Does it not occur to you that creating a united Unionist front will inevitably lead to the creation of a united Nationalist front? Even if the parties do not come to an agreement, the electorate surely will. If the effective choice is between the DUP and Sinn Féin, will SDLP voters not be tempted to choose the latter? The panic you perceive is probably SDLP panic, faced with the prospect of further erosion to Sinn Féin.
PaddyReilly makes a fairly valid point. I have little doubt that the pact, if it ever comes off, will win back South Belfast. FST is bit more uncertain, but far from impossible. The SDLP vote will fall greatly there, but I would be hopeful that it would hang in around the 2,500-3,000 mark, which ought to be just enough to ensure the split in the nationalist vote.
Posted by PaddyReilly on Sep 10, 2007 @ 01:14 PM
The panic you perceive is probably SDLP panic, faced with the prospect of further erosion to Sinn Féin.
Correct, two parties will gain from this, SF and DUP. If the UUP reject it, they lose. If they accept it, they lose more.
“Hello, is that Reg?”
“Hello Peter, it is. What can I do for you?”
“Come in to my parlour little fly.”
Peter Brown,
If the UUP really is in its own Life on Mars coma, do you think Reg has nightmares of the Test Card Girl appearing in front of him?
DCI Gene Hunt would make a great leader though.
Maximum Representation,
Clearly you posted before reading my post. You may be unconcerned about the religion of politicians, but most of the NI voters are. Call it sectarianism or tribalism or bigotry, it amounts to the same thing: an unhealthy approach to governance.
Northern Ireland has made a great start on the road to democracy. Jettisoning the sectarian factionalism in politics should be the long-term goal.
I have little doubt that the pact, if it ever comes off, will win back South Belfast.
You may be surprised. In the Assembly election, the combined SF/SDLP vote was 12,123. The combined UUP/DUP vote was 12,370. By the time the General Elections is held, these figures may be reversed. Even if you add the PUP’s 410 votes and the UKUP’s 298, that is not an impossible majority to overturn, given the steady growth of the Nationalist vote. Alliance, obviously, will not be participating in the pan-Unionist front.
PaddyReilly: Alliance, obviously, will not be participating in the pan-Unionist front.
By definition… Though, as a bit of a diversion, I have got the impression that, before elections, some nationalists refer to Alliance as a unionist party (“Don’t vote for them, vote for us”). Then after an election, it seems no unionists voted for Alliance (“All those votes are really nationalist, unionists are too bigoted to vote Alliance”).
Have any of Slugger’s Alliance apparatchiks noticed this?
Unionists, of course, have a different way of handling the Alliance vote (Wishy-washy party or a waste of a vote…)
Possibility,
I think that yours is a very accurate reading of the situtation. Looking at PaddyReilly’s statistics on South Belfast unless there is a single nationalist candidate (nigh on impossible) a single unionist candidate is almost certainly going to win. The only exception would be if all the Stormont Alliance vote decamped to the SDLP (again nigh on impossible).
The FST situtation is more difficult for unionism as you correctly identify.
Although it is moderately likely the seat could be taken (on the last election results it would require 64% of the SDLP vote to switch to SF for Gildernew to hold off a completely united UUP/DUP vote).
However, there are probably some UUP types who would refuse to vote for Arlene Foster (the only credible DUP candidate and realistically only credible unionist candidate). Also as Dewi has identified (and I have no reason to doubt his statistics) the demographic shift in FST is against unionists.
As such a unionist victory in FST would quite possibly be short lived. Clearly that does not mean it should not be attempted. A unionist victory in FST would have significant beneficial effects on unionist political morale generally and especially west of the Bann. Getting the constituency some representation at Westminister would be a good idea and to be honest yes; getting out (even if only temporarily) a republican who has run around suggesting that in the future republicans could go back to violence would be a good thing.
Source of demography statistics is Census 2001 – between 300 and 400 “Catholics” turning 18 each year. As FST not effected a great deal by population movements (correct me if I’m wrong) (can’t build any new houses for a start !) I reckon if Brown goes 2008 that’s another 1000 nationalists on the roll. With a 2005 combined nationalist majority of c 3000 that gives a 4000 deficit. Since SDLP already squeezed to 7,000 odd it might be possible – Mcgeough point relevant if he stands……but maybe an anti everything Unionist might also ?
The DUP will screw the UUP like a cheap prositute first chance they get.
While the collapse of the UUP would be good for the Alliance, lots of garden set unionists who hate the DUP would vote for us instead, the damage a strong DUP would do to this country isn’t worth it.
If Reg goes for this he’ll cement his title as the most inefectual leader in Irish political history.
nothing much to add to this one only to congratulate grouch, great posts which went to the centre of the issue and showed great moral courage, something the other unionist posters have not for the most part
Observer given your comments, if i was a nationalist i would be sh*tting myself!
wow, more nationalists complain about a unionist pact – MORE MOPERY
Dewi,
“……but maybe an anti everything Unionist might also ”
Could that be me…. If we can find a house we may well have moved to FST by then. Actually Elenwe would go mad if I got involved in politics.
I suspect an “anti everything unionist” would not stand. Jim Dickson (a pretty perfect anti everything unionist, and friend of my late father in law by the way) standing was what caused the Shinners to get the seat in the first place. I suspect the Prodiban in Fermanagh would not want to repeat that mistake.
“wow, more nationalists complain about a unionist pact – MORE MOPERY”
Seriously, I hope they go for the pact, which will make it more morale destroying and more funny when Foster still loses FST.
Beautiful part of the world to move to Turgon (I’ve seen the Tourist Board Videos !) – I typed “anti everything unionist” in a very casual way without thinking – sorry if offended. Anyway, wonderful evening in Cardiff – going to wander down the bay for an ice cream on the front !
(I’d vote for you….14th preference !!)
‘Come into my parlour said the spider to the fly’
The spider??? Peter Robinson
The Fly??? Sir Reg Empey.
Dewi,
No offense taken at all, I thought it was quite funny
A lot of the rhetoric is about unionist domination, of whatever hue, DUP or UU will do – it doesn’t matter as long as it is a unionist and not a nationalist. If the union was so fragile, then I could understand rallying to a single cause. However, this is definitely not the case. Therefore why the panic. Observer and co think that the panic is coming from the Nationalists and even Alliance. It is actually sound advice from them and it is we who are panicking.
The UU will disappear within the next 5 years if they do a deal. They will have lost all credibility amongst the core Ulster Unionists and especially with moderate nationalists. The only thing fragile is our peace process. The DUP agenda is to eradicate the UU and where they can’t, at least neutralise them. Giving them a deal on one seat, will only compromise the UU and they will subsequently be under the patronage of the DUP. I for one wouldn’t want a Nationalist pact. I would expect all of you to rail against that in the strongest possible terms. The DUP coined the phrase “Pan Nationalist Front”, a disparaging name. Now they are trying to create a “Pan Unionist Front” and Empey might fall for it. I think Pounder has it right. Empey’s reputation is already poor. He needs to show leadership, not the dithering blithering idiot he appears to be.
Pacts are a corruption of democracy and a corruption of principles. We will never be forgiven by the UU supporters if we are willing to prostitute ourselves.
Turgon – just for my edification – on your holiday you would have seen a lot of Welsh on signs and stuff – but how much did you hear spoken ?
Grouch, youre a strange sort of unionist who want nationalists, ie those against the union, to prosper politically
Dewi,
Lots of Welsh. In tourist places like Betws-y-Coed they speak to you in English but when two shop assistants were discussing tee shirt sizes for the children they switched to Welsh. In less touristy places they often started in Welsh and following the blank looks switched to English. When talking to one another it seemed exclusively Welsh. There were lots of Liverpool accents in LLandudno though (clearly not apeaking Welsh).
Near where we were staying there had obviously been a recent engagement or wedding as there were home made signs with two people’s names and a heart and something in Welsh.
Grouch,
I am happy to be wrong on this but I do not think it was the DUP who coined the term Pan Nationalist Front.
You have singularly failed to explain why a pact is bad for unionism merely how it is bad for the UUP. I support neither party. I do, however, support getting Gildernew out of FST if it is possible for the reasons I outlined previously. Do you as a unionist think the unionist population of FST are better served by Gildernew if that is the outcome of no pact (as it is likely to be)? Might I ask if you are west of the Bann unionist or in a constituency where having someone like Gildernew is totally impossible?
The thing I perhaps don’t get is why consolidating votes and seats is good for Unionism. Appreciate the symbolism of Gildernew (On the other side wasn’t it her family that got a council house rejected for a single protestant girl in the late sixties ?) but still can’t quite get how getting the odd anti demographic Westminster seat helps the cause ?
Dewi
Funny and spot on. Nationalists would be only too happy to have lots of Prods for local rep’s as long as they were for their native land, and not some plastic-Nigel type who dreams of Finchley.
>>A unionist victory in FST would have significant beneficial effects on unionist political morale generally and especially west of the Bann. Getting the constituency some representation at Westminister would be a good idea and to be honest yes;<<
I am confused, what does this morale boost mean apart from sticking it up the Nationalists? And what the hell is so important about bloody Westminster, really?
Really sad that many have failed to grasp the points put out by Grouch, Dawkins, PaddyReilly and myself. Perhaps there is no hope and the bigotry is too deeply ingrained. Shouldn’t people be demanding better for themselves, rather than being content with some temporary false sense of community supremacy? Obviously not!
Observer
“Get used to it – youll have a Prod MP”
In the end that’s all that really matters to you isn’t it?
It just confirms what you really are.
By the way, Foster hasn’t a hope of winning FST.
The DUP may well take SB. However, assuming Spratt is the candidate, I wouldn’t be too worried.
I think most sensible people are aware of the “wonderful” image of Unionism that people such as McCrea, Simpson and Campbell present both in Parliament and to the UK population in general.
Spratt is of the same intellectual “calibre”. I don’t think most Nationalists would be too worried if he joins the ranks of Unionist MPs.
Dewi,
I think the symbolisnm is very important. Also historically unionists tend to loose seats and not regain them. This is partly demographic shifts but also growing voting rates among nationalist voters (my understanding is nationalist community turnouts were lower many years ago).
To recapture South Belfast and for me anyhow especially FST (if possible and I agree with your caveats) would be a major morale boost and make people feel that the whole unity in 2016 nonsense had receded even further. Getting South Belfast would be good after all it has symbolism containing much of the city centre; Queen’s; stuff like that.
In terms of FST (yes a bit of an obsession for me) remember west of the Bann prods (like me) are very aware that the only west of the Bann seats in unionist hands are East Londonderry and Upper Bann (and they, especially Upper Bann are not proper west of the Bann seats). So to get FST back would be seen as a great victory. To get Gildernew out for all the reasons I have identified before would be seen as good. And at some level after all that has happened in Fermanagh over the years I admit to a certain sense of moral victory that after it all there would still be a unionist MP.
Observer
“Get used to it – youll have a Prod MPâ€
In the end that’s all that really matters to you isn’t it?
It just confirms what you really are
- what? a protestant? its you catholics who are in a spin at the thought of having a prod as an MP
Turgon – I think maybe a focus on other activities rather than election victories might be useful on all sides. If you win FST against the demographic odds through a pact then what does that prove, show or win ?
Dewi,
Of course I agree up to a point but remember there is still a bit of the seige mentality about some of us prods.
And remember I am actually one of those mad anti deal unionists. I am so mad I should really live in a cave with a newly dyed black beard.
Turgon – no worries – and come to South Wales next year – I’ll get u all trips on trains cos I run them !
“And remember I am actually one of those mad anti deal unionists. I am so mad I should really live in a cave with a newly dyed black beard.”
Supposing the Assembly turns out to be a moderate success in this term, would you still be a mad “Prodiban” at the next election and if so why?
Also – as a fundamentalist Protestant do you not feel that an increasingly secular UK is moving away from you faster than an Irish Republic that still retains some religious influence (e.g., abortion ban).
Just out of interest.
Observer
Strikes me as just the sort of attitude that’ll deliver you a Sinn Féin MP actually…
Leave him alone mun Kensei – he’s been on holiday in Wales – it takes a while to get the celtic spirit into your heart.
Kensei,
I knew I could not make a silly remark without someone picking me up on it but I guess I should answer.
If the assembly is a moderate sucess (as it may well be) I still have a problem with the nature of the government (no opposition, lack of collective responsibility etc.) I still have a problem with SF being in government with the army council still extant.
In terms of the secularisation of the UK, yes that is something I am not keen on but my view of fundamentalism is more about how the church should behave rather than the state and I still regard myself as British (please lets not start an Am I British or Irish debate, let alone an abortion one, I want to go to bed early tonight).
Seriously – Turgon – very welcome if u r on holiday over here next year. Got room for all…gospel honest !
To Turgon, Possibility, and Maximum Representation:
Re. Your debate – Some key facts regarding South Belfast are as follows:
At the 2007 Assembly Election Unionists polled 43% (NB ALL Unionists i.e. UUP, DUP, Bob McCartney’s candidate etc.), Nationalists polled 40% (SDLP, Sinn Fein), and Alliance/Green Party polled 15%.
Therefore it doesn’t take a genius to work out what voting block holds the ‘balance of power’. Possibility – I think it was you who said that it would take the entire Alliance vote to switch to A. McDonnell for them to retain the SB seat?: As you can see from the above figures, it would take a lot less than this – probably it would only take around 35% of the Assembly Alliance vote to switch to the SDLP for them to hold the seat.
I also know Alasdair McDonnell is actively targeting this ‘Alliance type’ vote in South Belfast & he also has a small, but significant, block of ‘small u’ type unionists who will support him, based on his moderate type image, and his work and presence on the ground, in the constituency.
As I said before, it will take the right candidate, a perfect campaign, and complete harmony between the DUP and UUP actually ‘on the ground’ in South Belfast, to win this seat back.
BTW: A Quiz question!! – As someone said, it is very rare in N. Ireland’s history for Unionists to lose a Westminster seat to Nationalism, and then win it back: When was the last time this happened?
Insider-
Probably John Dunlop in the old Mid-Ulster in 1974.
1955 Mid Ulster at a guess ?
K Maginnis 1983 FST
Of course!
Well done Observer – & this was 24 years ago!!, i.e. it’s a fairly rare occurrence. Will it ever happen again? – That’s the big question!!!