Sinn Fein’s failure an intellectual embodiment of partition…
Anthony McIntrye, writing just after the Republic’s election, argues that partition was the key to Sinn Fein’s poor performance in last month’s election. Not least in the sheer unfamiliarity with the political economy of the south of the party leader:
…he more resembled a luminary of the 1850s American Know Nothing Movement than a serious modern European political leader. His awareness of the issues in the Republic has improved little since attention was first drawn to this handicap by Paul Bew and Henry Patterson two decades ago. His is an intellectual embodiment of the success of partition rather than its failure. His knowledge of the island is restricted to its northern territory.
He then reprises a long term aspect of his own analysis, the party simply got the timing wrong. Footdragging in Northern Ireland possibly brought them an extra Ministerial seat, but according to McIntyre it cost them political viability in the Republic:
It will be very difficult to endow the peace process with the appeal it currently lacks to make it a serious electoral asset in the Republic. Sinn Fein failed to weave the threads between North and South at the appropriate juncture. Now it is left to sport a green shirt in the North but is naked in the South, where its dangly bits are dangerously exposed to anyone fancying a kick at them. By the time of the next election, who in the Republic will be even faintly interested in the North and its incessant demand for attention? Blair will have gone in Britain so access to No 10 will be rare. Ahern intends to step out of politics within the next four years. The US without prompting from Dublin and London will have other fish to fry. The media will plough different furrows.
Although it may not simply have been about timing, there were also, as Harold MacMillan once famously said, ‘Events, dear boy, events.’
Long before the emergence of the Ahern-Kenny squeeze phenomenon astute observers like Harry McGee and Noel Whelan were calling time on the march of Sinn Fein. They sensed that something else was at play. They were right. The end of Sinn Fein as a serious electoral force in the Republic was the cumulative effect of its associates’ involvement in the Northern Bank robbery and the murder of Robert McCartney.
CNT
Bar McG as the man is a mystery to me but time will tell, the rest of your post is spot on.
Mick
Indeed.
I thought I detected the same line of thinking in your own posts- we live in interesting times Mick but I think the most interesting phase for a long time is the next two years in Dublin- were Adams will have to put the wheels back on the juggernaut.
Unlike other phases this one will not be gradual or predictable and may be a further defining point in the decline of Adams.
In my view the “Prime Time pantomime” was a watershed, wereby now even his most ardent fans wonder if he can shake of the limp picked up from his mauling by McDowell….
I think the prime time incident was a miscalculation by Gerry. In the run up to the northern elections it seemed to be sf’s policiy not to get involved in shouting matches with opposition politicans. In many of the debates the other three parties drowned each other out with their shouting while sf sat back and waited for order to be restored.This seemed to work in the north but for the southern debates a bit of shouting back at the likes of mcdowell would have been a better policy.Also I don’t think gerry is ignorant of the facts and figures that the other politicans were quoting, I think he probably thought that he had to give a more general overview of sinn fein policies to voters who might be unsure of sf’s stance on bread and butter issues. Obviously the wrong tack. On sf’s longevity, they will be around for a very long time in the north at least because they are very active on the ground were the people need them.In general I have heard nothing but good reports about the party members from the public. If they can do the same in the south then they might be in with a chance there.On m mcdowell, the green party showed that he is an unashamed liar, and gerry was probably right not to engage him when all mcdowell could do was call gerry a drug dealer instead of trying to come up with some sort of solution to the drug problem.
Lot of solid points there ciaran, especially about SF up north.
In regard to griz on prime time- McD stuffed him regardless that he pleaded the 5th and SF took it in the groin subsequently….
Fellow bloggers as this article is now in my opinion dated please be aware as I shall not be giving it further attention I will not be able to comment on any replies to my blogs.
Thanx,
CTN