Taking it on the chin
From the ecstasy of March to the agony of May, 2007 is turning out to be quite the rollercoaster year for republicans. Whilst the Assembly election results gave Sinn Fein much to cheer, this one’s a big disappointment, and there can be no denying that fact.Sinn Fein entered the election with five seats and a real prospect of doubling that tally- based on opinion polls and advances made in the 2004 European and local elections. Instead, we’ve fallen back by one seat in Leinster House, with a couple of candidates just missing out and others coming in well short of expectations.
In one sense, there’s a need to be philosophical about the results. The legacy of this election will be the drive back towards a bipolar system in the 26 counties, with Enda having nearly as many reasons to be pleased as Bertie after Fine Gael’s leap forward to its pre-2002 seat tally. Sinn Fein weren’t alone amongst the small parties in experiencing the squeeze, though in itself that shouldn’t merit much consolation.
In another sense, however, this will necessitate a rigorous analysis of the way forward for the party in the 26 counties. Concerns about policy positions, leadership strategies and structural development will need to be aired and honestly debated.
Honest scrutiny must be the way forward as anything less would be to repeat the mistakes of other parties who preferred denial to reality when it came to explaining away electoral setbacks- in this regard, let no republican speak of ‘borrowed votes…’
The moment I first realised that we were in for a setback was about one minute past seven on Friday morning, the moment I heard the result of the RTE Exit Poll. With Sinn Fein targeting primarily Fianna Fail and Fine Gael seats across the state, news that both had performed well- coupled with our own sluggish returns from the Exit Poll- suggested that the day ahead wouldn’t be bringing the best of news for republicans.
Whilst the border county vote remains solid- and indeed growing in the case of Donegal- there must be real concern at the failure to retain the voters in the Capital and in the numerous other target constituencies across the state.
My own instincts and experiences ensure I avoid simple ‘after the event’ explanations. In this regard, I’m highly suspect of the media consensus which is promoting the view that Adams’ performance in the ‘First Debate’ was a critical moment in the campaign, for a number of reasons.
Having watched the debate, I came away content with Gerry Adams’ performance. Whilst he did use broad brush language when answering a number of questions, the debate never really got down to matters of fine detail. The post- Count media consensus that Adams somehow got battered by Michael McDowell conveniently ignores the fact that McDowell lost his own seat and that of ¾ of his party in this election- hardly the spoils of victory.
If truth be told, I think there were a number of contributing factors to the poor election result for Sinn Fein. There is undoubtedly a need for republicans to develop and promote 26 county figures within the upper echelons of the party leadership, and these individuals must be equipped with a policy platform which is viewed as being sharp, deliverable and, uniquely, reflective of the all-Ireland character of Sinn Fein.
Republicans are perhaps better positioned now to develop the latter due to the onset of devolved governance in the six counties, where republicans- like all other parties in the six counties- will be increasingly focused on coming to terms with the responsibilities of day-to-day management of the administration and all that entails for policy development.
A feature of this campaign was that, as a small player in the south of Ireland, Sinn Fein was simply cast to the side in terms of relevancy as the campaign spotlight focused firmly on the choice of who to put in charge of the still growing and prospering economy. The fact that Sinn Fein was dismissed by all other parties as a potential coalition partner also played a significant part- in this sense, Fianna Fail’s decision in the final days to forcefully rule out any role for republicans in a potential administration was an excellent tactical move: faced with voting for a party who could lead the government and one dismissed as an irrelevance by all parts of the political mainstream, those floating between Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail in the former’s target constituencies decisively shifted behind Bertie, with emphatic results.
For republicans of a younger generation, this is the first significant electoral setback, and I’ve no doubt they will feel absolutely gutted. But for those with longer memories and experiences, there will at least be the comfort of knowing that there was not so long ago a time when returning four TDs and just missing out on another two in Donegal with an increased overall vote would’ve been regarded as an unparalleled success.
But we are where we are, and there’s no room for complacency nor consolation prizes. Sinn Fein can take solace in the fact that 2007 reaffirmed the party’s unassailable position as leaders of the northern nationalist community; but the lesson of the past week is that republicans need to think long and hard about how to develop and expand the party’s appeal across the southern state.
In the 26 counties, there will be local government elections within the next two years, which should provide the impressively young panel of election candidates time to dust themselves down and prepare for the challenge of making that vital breakthrough in 2009 across the state.
Whilst it has been pointed out that Sinn Fein’s appeal and electoral return in the 26 counties broadly reflects the size and mandate of a party of Alliance Party stature in the north, the parallel ends there. The fact remains that small parties have increasingly played a critical, influential role in the governance of the southern state whilst the height of Alliance’s ambition in our new political framework would be to secure a solitary ministry- which in itself remains a somewhat fanciful ambition given their limited electoral appeal to date.
As the northern administration beds down, republican experiences of governance will grow as the lingering hostility to a post-IRA Sinn Fein fades in the 26 counties, factors which should better position the party to attract both first preferences/ transfers and, as crucially, willing coalition partners in the period of years ahead.
In this regard, it is instructive that, although Sinn Fein remain bitterly disappointed at the ‘miserly’ return of four TDs to Leinster House, Fianna Fail looks like being on the verge of entering into government with a party of 2 TDs coupled with a pocket of Independents.
With a distance of five years between today and the formation of the next administration, who would doubt that Sinn Fein would be courted by Fianna Fail if the electoral arithmetic remained the same after republicans had spent five years sharing power in the north and working in tandem with southern ministers in the North/South Ministerial Council?
So, my parting message to fellow republicans out there would be to take this one on the chin: don’t deny it’s a setback, but rather learn from the experience and get better prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.
“If your prime aim is to create a united Ireland is SF the best way of achieving it?”
That depends on your politics. If you are right wing, no.
“If that is not the prime aim what are the objectives?”
A more equal and just society should also be part of the objectives.
“What can SF realistically expect in the South in the next 5-10 years?”
They are pretty much where they were before the election, but now 5 years behind. If they get their act together, get some decent policies and push the Southern party more, then there is 8 to 10 seats are available at the next election. They would probably also be less toxic next time around, and more able to point to some Northern governmental experience. That might be enough to be king makers; it would certainly give them some influence. Over ten years – consolidate that positions, try to push a little further so you are more 10-12 than 8-10, so you can have platform to try and attack Labour as the voice of the Irish Left.
If they don’t get their act together, obscurity.
I know SF seem to invite madness, but they are a political party like any other. The same rules apply.
sorry, just felt the comment was unjustified and without a basis in truth!
“Real democratic politicians understand that no party is ever unassailable.”
Real democratic politicians are a ruthless sort who know when the opposition is hopeless and will go for the throat. there is, as yet, no evidence that the SDLP are going to get anything other than another kicking. And I’ve yet to see any SDLP posters be as candid as some of the SF bloggers have been.
Sammy
“So ditch what you’ve always believed for the sake of a few extra seats and maybe the chance to implement some of the more crudely nationalist (in the general sense) elements of your platform.”
Oh, please Sammy, that’s not worthy of you. Where did I said that they should ditch what they believe? The need to update policies in the face of new realities (both economic and political) is a challenge faced by left wing parties just about everywhere in the world. Individual policies should not be sacred at any rate, rather the principles that underline them. SF should be developing costed, sensible, centre-left policies. So they want universal health care, an end to the two tier system – they need to rethink how that can be implemented. Unless there is a true crisis, it probably won’t be done in one go, and claims of uncontrollable costs are easily banded about to frighten people, so they are probably better starting with a few key policies that are progressive, tightly costed and appeal to a lot of people to gain trust. And so on with other areas. That isn’t ditching principle.
Power without principle is bad, certainly. But principle without power is utterly and completely useless. A bit like the Alliance Party, really.
The election shows that only 6.9% of the southern voting population see partition as the number 1 issue.
If SF are to make further progress they need to begin engaging the other 93.1% of voters on the issues they are more concerned about. The big question is wherether they have the talent within the party to do this.
you would be surprised how many people vote for FF for the same reason. the southern electorate are not avery smart bunch!
‘the southern electorate are not avery smart bunch! ‘
lol – that’s the funniest thing I’ve heard in a long time – because they don;t vote for SF??
There is no doubt that last weeks results were a setback but thats what they were last weeks results and Sinn Fein will look, analyse and learn. Sinn Fein will take it on the chin but they will not blame the electorate like the SDLP and barrowed votes or the UU our vote stayed at home. The Sinn Fein vote on this island is 223OOO and needs to be built on. Sinn Fein will examine why many people said they would vote Sinn Fein didn’t when it came to it. By reading through these posts and other articles many would believe that Sinn Fein were ready to head off into the sunset no chance. We are in for the long haul and if no government is formed we will fight the next election having learnt the lessons of this one. It was disappointing but it wasn’t the end of the world. That was last week and now thats off my chest its time to move forward.
Having read a lot of the stuff posted here since the election, here is my summary and interpretation of the reasons for Sinn Fein’s apparent failure in the elections, in no particular order:
Keep FG Out: The SF fantasy reason. The electorate were too busy voting FF to keep FG out that SF didn’t get a look in. This reason is slightly undermined by the SF vote remaining steady, except in Dublin where FG seem to have been as likely as anyone else to benefit.
Volunteer fall off: Policing, while welcome in the North, as the assembly showed, may have been less popular in the South where the need for the PSNI is not seen and SF supporters can remain more idealistic – which they have shown by leaving SF and joining dissident republican groups, like Eirigi. While these groups are tiny, so are the numbers of volunteers willing to do the door-banging essential to boost the vote, and the most fanatical are the most valuable to lose.
United Ireland not important: The Unionist fantasy reason. The Southern electorate are no longer interested in a united Ireland and so don’t vote Sinn Fein. More likely they are still interested in the idea, but it’s slipping in priority.
Adam’s performance: As if one wobbly TV showing should decide the election, but maybe it can – the US elections are full of examples, from Nixon’s stubble to “Read my lips”.
NI is sorted, isn’t it?: An inverse bonus from peace in NI: If NI is apparently sorted, with Sinn Fein in power there, is there any need for them in RoI – surely they can do the United Ireland job themselves now they are in power.
FF stole NI glory Bertie running around the Boyne with Paisley gave the impression that he was the man of the hour for the successful implementation of the Assembly here (also helped by Tony): thus FF get the peace-dividend vote, at SF’s expense
Baggage: Reminders of Columbia and the timing of the release of one of McCabe’s killers may have prevented the breakthrough as potential voters are reminded just why SF are unwelcome to so many. This could also be filed under “Blame the media”.
Don’t rock the boat: In my opinion, the most important reason of all. Ireland is doing great – why change? The PD’s have also felt the affect of this – they, like SF, are also a radical party and the electorate are not in the mood for radical now.
Also, in my opinion, the way ahead for Sinn Fein is fairly clear: Radicals will only prosper in a radicalised society. The republic is not that society. Sinn Fein need to ditch the left-wing stuff (which is largely tacked on to the rather more central UI stuff) and concentrate on delivering in areas that the other parties are ignoring: Immigration, development, tackling dublin-centrification, loss of culture. A re-birth as a party of Real Ireland, the rural Eire of poets and GAA warriors might be a way forward – a truly nationalist party, but care needs to be taken that it doesn’t just end up as an Irish version of UKIP.
Gosh, the realism’s coming thick and fast today: “re-birth as a party of Real Ireland, the rural Eire of poets and GAA warriors might be a way forward – a truly nationalist party” – poetry, eh? Oh well, if nothing else, at least it’s one more Republican poster we can expect no longer to p*ss about pretending that the GAA ain’t politicised to the nth degree.
if you dont believe me go anywhere in the world and you will see that the most stupid, fat and ignorant tourists are the irish. we have a lack of educated people on the island and by that i mean that people dont know anything outside their own special area.
WN: “at least it’s one more Republican poster we can expect no longer to p*ss about pretending that the GAA ain’t politicised”
Except that I’m not a Republican. If anything, I’m a unionist as I would not be interested in a United Ireland (and I live in Northern Ireland). So stick your presumptions up yer hole.
“There is nothing, nothing on this earth, more ruthless and single-minded than a Fianna Fáil candidate aiming for Leinster House. Hard work at community level? They’ll spend years attending funerals of people they never even knew for the sake of a third preference.â€
Careful Sammy, I imagine some Soldiers of Destiny read Slugger. You may be in danger of getting drafted
Sinn Fein
If you want to be radical and relevant to the people of the majority of the island, disband.
Set up a new party.
(With actual policies this time)
Kensei,
Sinn Féin’s history wasn’t being just another democratic socialist party in the line of British Labour/German SDP/Spanish PSOE/whatever. So any reinvention of itself that SF pursues is unlikely to be in the same vein that those parties have done.
Ditching socialism and moving on to a new, post-socialist left wing project is frought with difficulties, even for established left-wing parties. The post-socialist left millieu is an overwhelmingly middle-class one. Social democractic parties across the democratic world have haemhorraged working class membership just as trade unions and the political power and capacity to integrate the working class within left-wing politics that came with them have declined. That seems to lead to a fairly rapid fragmentation of the traditional voter base.
For Sinn Féin, any move to the territory of the post-Socialist left is even more fraught. This is a party that was a component of a movement that fought a bitter and unpleasant armed struggle for 30 years because they rejected the very existence of the two Irish states. The Southern one as well as the Northern one. Adams has been masterful in keeping his base intact while butchering sacred cow after sacred cow, but at what point do the Shinners end up looking to their own people like just another set of scheming politicos?
There’s an old saying that, when confronted by a choice between conservatives and liberals masquerading as conservatives, the electorate will always vote for the genuine article. In your case, the danger is that when the electorate are confronted by a choice between Fianna Fáil and Shinners masquerading as Fianna Fáil, they will go for the larger and more successful party with less skeletons in their closet.
Sinn Féin in NI stand out as probably the only political party in Europe that still succeeds in mobilising the working-class en masse to support it politically. Are any steps that Sinn Féin take to expand their base in the South going to jeopardise that base in the North? It’s not a question I have an answer to, but I’m glad I’m not having to sit in the Shinners’ shoes and grapple with it.
You might argue that principle without power is pointless, but power without principle is unarguably repellent. That’s the way you end up like backbench Labour MPs, supporting a government that happily tramples over everything you hold dear for the sake of the Office Costs Allowance.
Oh, and Alliance are a hell of a lot closer to a share in power in the North than Sinn Féin are in the Republic. We only need to gain 2-3 MLAs. You need to not only convince the electorate that you deserve another half dozen TDs, but you need to convince the political class that you aren’t, as the Germans say about the NPD and the like, koalitionsunfähig.
Your base in the North is secure and you can reasonably expect to make further gains from an SDLP living in denial, but that can’t be enough for a party whose whole raison d’être is to end partition.
Ok, a lot to deal with there. I’ll try to put it into some reasonable order.
1. SF are right now, just another party. That is the lesson from the election last week. In terms of development and violent past; you’ll find plenty of others kicking about in Ireland, merely with greater distance.
They have no magic powers. They did well in elections previously because they picked the right issues, came across as strong and understood their electorate. They stalled last week because they got those things wrong.
2. I am not suggesting that SF should cease to be a party of the left, or lose principle. “Socialism” has unfortunately been tagged with negative connotations, and “social democracy” is a much more friendly term these days. The crux of the matter, as Mick, pointed out is that SF want to shift Ireland from an Anglo-American model to a Nordic one.
There are all kinds of problems with that. While we’ve seen the expected rise in inequality, crime and social problems from the system, it has been generally good to Ireland. The centre of gravity is right. Money has been wasted and people feel there is enough in the system. In this kind of environment it is simply impossible for that goal to be achieved in one go.
So you have to strip things down to the core principles and work backwards from principles to goals to policies that can be achieved in the next election. Ideally you are looking for something with a good appeal, addresses a particular issue, is strictly costed and easily explained e.g. UK Labour’s 1997 commitment to reduce class sizes. When you’ve built trust you can do more. This is particularly true when you get hammered by everyone else for pie in the sky policy.
New Labour gets a bad rap and in many ways they deserve it, but they got a ton of money into the public services by that strategy, in a way they probably wouldn’t have been able to sustain if they had have just promised a ton in 1997 election.
3. In terms of the working class base, I think it is simply a matter of keeping a strong on the good presence, not moving too fast and having good policy. You have to remember that there are a lot of working class votes they could target in the South, and a lot of middle class votes in the North.
4. Power without principle is repellent, which is one of the reasons SF fared badly in the last election. the “Ready for government” stuff smacked of it. But in general you need to find a balance between what you want and what is achievable. Very few governments get the opportunity to do most of their wish list.
5. The Alliance might be near the Assembly, but near any real power? Pffffff. It’s the North we’re talking about here.
6. I’m not a member of SF! I am merely a Northern republican who wants to see progress on the National Question. Right now, SF are the only show in town in the North. If FF moved up, I’d be interested to see what they had to show.
Sammy
To my mind, last week’s results present the Shinners with plenty of questions, but at least one answer.
The principal question, for me, is can SF ever hope to be more than bit-part players to the FG/FF punch-and-judy? Sure, occasionally, such bit part players have real substantive influence, and wield real power (to wit, the PDs, 1997-2007); but they also act as a wind-break to the big players and can be punished brutally by the electorate (to wit, the PDs, 2007- ? ). Can SF really justify the distraction caused by the inevitable vicissitudes of such a role from SF’s primary role – pursuing a United Ireland?
The more minor questions, to my mind, all revolve around how SF increases its electoral appeal in the south, prevents the media plausibly portraying it as a bunch of illiterate gangsters who are ill-suited for government and gets its project back on track. The answer to at least some of those kind of questions must, to my mind, lie in the compact recently formed with the DUP. SF must look to its base in the six counties (where it REALLY knows the issues and the lie of the land) and deliver excellent government. It must show itself capable of difficult compromises and wise spending, prepared to bargain hard for points of highest principle and ready to do the hard work of exercising power humanely and efficiently.
In short, SF’s future fortunes in the South, to my mind, depend in no small measure on how well it runs the North.
Btw, I hope you’re enjoying the Alliance Party slegging.
Jasus Gerry have you seen this ? –it looks as if we only exist because of partition- slow down on the UI carry on fer fecks sake— we will all be out of a job- those FF and FG bastards would stand up here not to mention those greens etc — A new slogan???
Feck what about no surrender? or has someone already got that one?
I hope you’re enjoying the Alliance Party slegging.
The heat is hardly on us this week, is it…
“The heat is hardly on us this week, is it…”
Oh come on. The heat being on you you requires some kind of significance or relevance.
The heat being on you you requires some kind of significance or relevance.
Given the amount of time and effort you and other republicans spend attacking us on Slugger, I’d guess we’re significant and relevant to you then…
“Given the amount of time and effort you and other republicans spend attacking us on Slugger, I’d guess we’re significant and relevant to you then…”
Nah, it’s just a wee hobby for larfs. 2016 is a long way away you know
.
Though I should have said you are so wet the heat wouldn’t matter anyway….