How long does it take before a party can ditch it’s leader without it seeming to have been forced in to doing so?

Like I say, ‘just a thought…

Its good for all Ireland and beyond including SF members to see Adams in his true light- if Carlsberg did over-rated politicians- grizzler is probably the most over-rated in the world.

What a time to make gaffes about MRSI instead of MRSA, getting the wrong constituencies for your candidates, play the poor mouth with prestigious holiday homes and then make an ass out yourself on the most important issue in your most important election- the economy.

All that on top of standing over Denis Donaldson and Steaknife Scappatici for an aggregate of over
3 decades, yet people say he is a clever man.

Clever at impersonating John Hume alright after that his record compares very badly with the likes of Michael Collins……

To put it mildly!

“…143,000 First Preference Votes for Sinn Fein suggests that there is a signifcant foundation for the Party to build on over the next 5 years.”

I don’t think so. 143,000 out of a voting population of how many? More laughable head burying by the Shinners me thinks! Face it rab, southern voters said (in no uncertain terms) SF just isn’t wanted about the place.

O’Snodaigh only held on by 69 votes, after he was elected in ’02 and returned 3 coucillors in ’04 the provies expected him to top the poll.

Now that “peace” has broken out up north with a united Ireland a long way of O’Snodaigh like many other SF candidates have much fewer workers as their eager canvassers have left the ship for more
radical vessels or merely resigned in disgust and disillusionment.

With Adams’s buffoonery on RTE radio and the small leaders debate being a huge contributory factor in
SF’s reduced return to the Dail, many of those disillusioned members who were thinking of leaving
have more reasons to do so.

Interesting times ahead in Dublin for the provies if Eirigi do decided contest elections but either way they will still leech members from SF…

But look at the MLAs Southern Observer:

SDLP : 16

SF : 28

It seems that many SF members and supporters have turned their back on Gerry Adams and joined éirígí (Irish for “arise”) in the Dublin area. Now SF will suffer the fragmentation in the south which they preventing happening in the north by the use of bully boy tactics.

“éirígí (Irish for “arise”) is a socialist republican political party in the Republic of Ireland. Formed by a small group of socialist republican activists in Dublin in April 2006 as a political campaigns group, the organisation has grown significantly and on 12 May 2007 its members voted to become a fully-fledged political party. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Éirígí

Regarding the reference to Mary Lou “tackling Bertie n his own doorstep”, I believe that was Garrett Fitzgerald who made that point and Mary Lou didn’t correct him. Tackle Bertie? Just only managed to tickle him and gave us all a laugh at the same time!

Face it macswiney, donnelly, soupy, gaskin etc the majority of Irish people don’t want or support your idea of Irish Republicanism. I suppose Gerry is licking his wounds and singing the old Sam Cooke song…, the one that goes :-

“It’s been a long time coming, but I know a change is gonna come, ”

…only now the change will have to come from SF!

This must be my twentieth posting on this subject speaking as one of those who voted to give SF the heave-ho.This is not against NI nationalism just the particular brand that SF represents.A few unionists stood stood for election in the ROI in recent decades getting a derisory vote.Yet you cannot extrapolate that ‘northern unionists are mistrusted and barely tolerated…’
,No-one wants us and we don’t care?,
Not so.We passionately care about our northern brethren.Honest!.So much so that we are trying so save a sizeable proportion of them from themselves by puncturing SF below the waterline.

They have no coherent strategy for Irish Unity other than hoping to get the balance of power in the 26 co’s and then out poll unionists in the north.

This is very vague and dangerous especially when you have a party leader who is hammered in debates about the most important issue in any election anywere in the world- the economy- couldn’t Adams just have taken down a few figures on the back of a matchbox to limit his imbecility- talk about negligence!

His impression as a statesman may be fatally injured here.

As I said earlier he is now as much a liability to SF which is very dangerous for them as apart from their now reduced activist base he was their main asset.

They will survive but if they continue to mess up will become an irrelevance down south, this in turn will harm them up north.

But according to Adams and McGuinness the incoming Sinn Fein tide would be the story of the day.

It wasn’t – this is because the usual 200 strong cavalcade of cars to ferry voters to the polling stations wasn’t as large as usual, neither were the amount of SF workers who usually treck door to door canvassing and leafleting up to a year before an election.

Yes Eirigi are unlikely to mushroom electorally;- they haven’t even decided to contest elections yet.

It is the ongoing membership leeching from SF that
will do the harm to that party’s electoral ambitions.

The figures for NW Euro constituency are:
FF 39.12%
FG 34.87%
SF 9.78%
Others 7.49%
Labour 3.10%
PDs 2.84%
Green 2.78%

Based on these results with a quota of 25% FF (and even FG) would have a stronger claim to the third seat than SF if they vote managed. However, Pearse Doherty proved a good candidate in 2004, he pulled in 6% and 20,000 more votes than the 2007 perfomance. The habit of this constituency electing an independent is probably a barrier too.

And aren’t Eirigi basically unlikely to make much electoral impact because there aren’t that many people in the electorate who back their analysis?

The kick in the balls of reality for them is that they will never return Sean Crowe or new deputies or even hold what they have in Dublin if (outside the election figures) they continue to lose members.

Again I ask you to bear in mind the morphing of Eirigi (formed by ex SFers)to an All Ireland political party last week from being a mere Dublin based campaigns group.

This new challenge to Sinn Fein to retain their dwindling number of members is critical to their status as a relevant force in Dublin more so than preparing for a new electoral outing based on their current figures- there already were a lot of
disillusioned SF members out there before this latest black eye from the electorate.

Two different elections for two different things. When it came to voting for government and involvement in government SF got a position reflective of where many felt they should be, not in power.

It was a poor election for SF, end of. Parties have poor elections, it is neither fatal nor anything else other than a kick in the balls of reality.

The point to remember here is not that they lost a seat but are losing many members which contributed to their target shortfall.

As you know when people start deserting a party it can snowball as it leaves the remaining members with to big a mountain to climb especially in the context of a feel bad factor.

The bad showing for SF was not about one days bad news but an accumulation of resignations over the years…..

Plus as the likes of SF/Greens/PDs are usually last seat battlers smallish swings can have a significant impact in their number of seats. They are more likely to be on a high or low.

SS

“Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, South Dublin
and Dublin city. Fancy trying again with figures that reflect the constituency? ”

I know these areas are in the constiuency, that is why all they are included in the figures already.

I’ll check the CU claim later today.

George

Election performances are always worth noting. They are the warning/progress signs for parties. It is what the do in response to the signs in the intervening period that determines it.

Macswiney

“Fair Deal’s analysis is nationwide and does not reflect results within the boundaries of the
Dublin Euro constituency”

Nope it isn’t the nationwide figures its the Dublin Euro constituency. Although it is maybe worth noting SF’s percentage in the Dublin area was a near match for their national performance.