Another bump in the road ahead?
The loss of a Dail seat may not be the end of Sinn Fein’s electoral problems in Dublin. The general election figures when applied to the Dublin Euro constituency show Mary Lou McDonald’s seat vulnerable to Fianna Fail and possibly the Greens.FF’s growth puts them in with a strong claim to a second Euro seat. The respective party scores were:
Fianna Fail 38.75%
Fine Gael 18.74%
Labour 14.53%
PD’s 4.13%
Greens 8.22%
SF 6.97%
Others 8.61%
With a quota of 20%, the figures project 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour. (Contrary to thread claims these figures are based on the correct consituency make-up)
In the 2002 general election, SF outpolled the Greens, 8% to 7.2% and in physical votes, 40450 to 36501. This was the springboard for SF to take the European seat from the Greens with the party adding 6% and 20,000 votes to their tally. However, on Thursday the Greens effectively reversed the 2002 position taking 8.2% to Sinn Fein’s 7% and in physical votes, 41813 to 35256. So in party rankings the Greens are now fourth and SF fifth in the Dublin party league table.
The 2004 performance meant McDonald was seen as a vote getter but this week’s result puts a major question mark over that. The lower turnout in Euro elections should be some assistance to SF’s cause plus there is a pool of potential voters among the ‘Others’ and following his Dail defeat, Joe Higgins may not run as he did in 2004.
Wasn’t she eliminated after the seventh count?
FD,
This gibberish may have meant something if you knew the Dublin Euro constituency is: Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, South Dublin
and Dublin city.
Fancy trying again with figures that reflect the constituency?
The other thing is that I believe that Ireland’s total number of Euro MEP seats goes from 13 to 12 in 2009.
Currently there are four constituencies, with Dublin having 4 seats and the others three. I don’t know if its been decided where that seat should be pruned, but I think that Dublin is the most likely, as of all the constituencies Dublin had the lowest quota by quite a margin.
Of course its likely that the boundaries could also be redrawn to allow a better balance with the reduced number of MEPs.
Fair_Deal,
I think you are getting more than a little bit ahead of yourself there trying to extrapolate the results from a Dáil election to a European one two years down the line.
Especially when you consider that Fine Gael topped the poll in the last Euro elections having returned a measly 3 TDs for the whole of Dublin just two years earlier.
Going by your logic you could equally argue that Mary Lou will top the poll in the next Euros having failed to get elected just like FG’s Jim Mitchell in 2002 in Dublin Central. This was, after all, merely the precursor to Gay Mitchell sweeping the boards two years later.
This is the begining of the end for the Sinn Fein narco terorists. The PDs are finished and Mary Harney cannot oick up the pieces, especially as McDowell won’t even be a senator. She can rejoin FF or fade away. Then FF can turn its guns on the narco terroristrs and ensure O’Snodaigh and simililar types are squeezed out. Getting rid of Morgan in Louth next time out should not be so difficult. Mary Lou fade in time too. It would be good to see the Colombia three extradited too. Who cares waht the Northern Bank robbers and McCabe cop killers think? Your day has come – and passed.
Indeed. SF have lost a single seat for the first time in 15 years. It’s all over.
Catch a grip.
One seat lost in all those elections. Can any other party claim they’ve only lost one seat in 15 years?
Go on give it a go – DUP? SDLP? FG? FF? PD? Lab? UUP?
Have they lost less than one seat in the last 15 years?
Seems SF is judged on terms others don’t apply to themselves.
The PDs might not be finished. Harney is a more capable leader. If she can fix the health-service by 2012 the electorate will return her.
I’m sure the electorate will return Mary if she pulls off the miracle of fixing the health service as a minor isolated figure in opposition.
Does she have her own brush? Will she advise Michael on how to keep his mop bucket clean? Will they argue over who cleans the bogs?
Personally I don’t think Mary doing sweet little deals for her friends in the private sector will “fix” the health service.
FD,
btw, your base analysis would indicate a SF gain in CU for the Euros.
Going to do the sums on that? Thought not.
Super – Can any other party claim they’ve only lost one seat in 15 years?
Did any other party boast that they were going to double their representation ?
Maggot/MR/Davros
Good to see you back on Slugger
8/9 years ago Mary Lou was a member of the National Women’s Executive of Fianna Fail. When she saw that she would be unable to secure a candidature within FF, she turned to SF, and they took her in. Or maybe they were “took in” by her. Anyone who knows her will say that Mary Lou is a career-centred person
When the leadership replaced the very good, on the ground and in-your-face worker Nicky Keogh with Mary Lou, it did not go down well with Dublin SF membership. Nicky was within a handfull of votes of being elected last time around. Unlike Mary Lou, he was not the type to ‘swan around’. I do believe that Nicky would have went against the tide and got elected.
Because of this and other decisions,including those taken at the special ArD Fheis, at least 50/60 good members and core workers left SF in the last year. These were people who had put the real spade work into building the organsation in Dublin – Not your “Johnny come latelys”
Any wonder that SF did not do as well as expected in the city as those members and workers, who had built up a reputation within their communities as being able to get things done, are no longer there.
Should have read above – “Because of this and other decisions,including those taken at the special ArD Fheis, at least 50/60 good members and core workers IN DUBLIN CITY left SF in the last year.”
Most of them formed themselves into a campaign grouping called Eirigi
Mary Lou is obviously a figure of contemnpt. A Bective babe who gets her bit of roughtwith top Provos. Because Adams knows nothing about anything except the Peace Process (a result of his narco terrorism) and has nothing to offer the South, he needs articulate Southern puppets like Mary Lou and not the cloth cap grafters. The Ballymurphy Provo boss put himself up for king of Ireland. But kings don’t gert elected in democracies. In the case of King Adams, they get skewered in TV debates.
Sinn Fein have no future. They are not a normal party. They are and will always be unfit for government.
The PDs are finished. Mary should probably accept the Ceann Comhairle position. McDowell really let them down by resigning in front of the cameras and then walking away like the spoilt brat that he is. With Mary in the chair, then Bertie, the cutest of them all, has the PDs shagged. Then it is time for the narco terrorists.
Unfortunately for MLM’s analysis, the Dublin Sinn Féin membership was aware of Nicky Kehoe’s decision not to run again a full year before Mary Lou was identified as his replacement. Many of those who left and went to ÉirÃgà were closely involved in the attempts to change his mind or find a local replacement, and could confirm that Mary Lou’s candidacy had nothing to do with their own departure.
Also, there is no reason to expect that Nicky would have got elected, in view of the fact that neither Dessie Ellis nor Larry O’Toole did.
I agree with Soupy here. Fair Deal’s analysis is nationwide and does not reflect results within the boundaries of the Dublin Euro constituency. Surely this unconnected analogy is not worthy of a lead thread…?
SF’s vote in Dublin actually held up reasonably well and O’Snodaigh holding on to a seat yesterady was a big boost for the party after Friday’s poor results.
Ha! Wednesday – are you seriously attempting to suggest that no pressure was brought to bear on Nicky Keogh to stand down in favour of Tinkerbell McDonald? Don’t be so ridiculous.
Regardless of whther or nor F_D’s analysis is spurious, the fact is that MLMcD is now a loser – much less of an electoral asset than she was before the election and in Sinn Fein, my impression is that those who don’t bring hoe the bacon in electoral terms get quickly cast aside (Mick Murphy anyone?)
maybe being part of a UI wouldn’t be such a bad thing after all? At least people down there have the insight and ‘decency’ to reject terrorism and it’s byproducts.
Bertie gets trawled over the coals for a few finiancial irregularities – I imagine that’s nothing compared to SF’s little ‘investments’.
Things are looking good, the police are no longer afraid of arresting republicans (in fear fo setting off the IRA) and the our southern neighbours have backed the peace process – saying thanks for not killing anyone anymore, now leave the adults to the politics of running the country!
Be interesting to see how SF run the north. no doubt london will tighten the belt with regards to hand-outs – so how exactly will SF pay for Irish language, education reform, north south, etc etc etc. me wonders if they are digging a big giant hole?
ps, really interesting when you go to the RTE website that SF don’t even get so much as an obituary – never mind considered as a possible partner for government. Poor Gerry, hope big Ian passes on his condolenscees…
Let’s be objective here, and say that a delusion
that a group of armed militants once had, that they were the true government of Ireland, has been held upto the light, and shown to be the utter nonsense that it was.
During the troubles, the IRA were tolerated by sections of Southern Irish society, because they were seen as being the defenders of the Catholic community in the North; no more, no less.
Most Southerners today, have more in common with the British and the Unionists than they do with a band of solidly working class, left leaning fanatics. This of course, was something that the DUP came to realise some time ago.
If Sinn Fein were a normal party, Adams would do the decent thing and resign; but then ,again, Sinn Fein are not a normal party.
The main point in Dublin is that the vote for SF held up reasonably well. Sean Crowe polled 12.2% and Dessie Ellis still polled a very respectable 15.7 despite not being elected. Aengus O’Snodaigh was, of course, also re-elected in Dublin South Central and Joanne Spain increased the party’s vote by almost 3% in Dublin Mid-West (based on the 2002 general election).
The party comfortably retained it’s seats in Kerry North, Cavan/Monaghan and Louth and there is every propect of future seats in Donegal after the party polled 21.2% and 17.5% respectively.
There were also good showings in Sligo-Leitrim and Meath West.
This is not the catastrophe that has been portrayed in some of the more excitable quarters. Rather it has been a stalling process nationally and the party needs to re-evaluate some of its more left of centre policies which seemed to cost it votes in the last seven days prior to the election. There is a growing feeling that the party must move much more towards the centre ground where potentially there may be many thousands of votes to be picked up in the future.
Sinn Fein is still in a hugely powerful position in the North with over 26% of the vote and four ministers in the new government. It responds well to setbacks and this may (inadvertently) be the best thing that could have happened to the party.
An opportunity to re-evaluate its economic policies in particular and move to a much more centreist position where it can attract potentially many more votes.
Many have written SF’s Obituaries in the past and be proven wrong in spectacular fashion. Watch this space…
“SF’s vote in Dublin actually held up reasonably well and O’Snodaigh holding on to a seat yesterady was a big boost for the party after Friday’s poor results.”
You’ve gotta laugh haven’t you? We were told that Mary Lou was out to tackle Bertie on his own back door but she only succeeded in tickling him!
Northern Ireland’s people ,unwanted and unloved.
Its unionists are disliked, patronised and viewed as spongers by the British people with whom they are in union with.
Northern nationalists are mistrusted and barely tolerated by the people in Southern Ireland who don’t want the North to jeopardise its current prosperity.
We don’t even like each other and can’t see that our inflated view of our owm importance is over now that we have stop our barbaric blood-letting.
No-one wants us and we don’t care?
nice post down beat – very true. ROI and GB can happily run their own affairs without us.
Tobar,
Quote your source for that total nonsense because there was’nt a single person in SF (or anywhere else that I am aware of) who said any such thing. Bertie was always going to top the poll. The battle was for the final seat. All that drivel about ‘tackling Bertie’ is complete hocus-pocus and a figment of your imagination I’m afraid…
You’ve gotta laugh have’nt you…
“the party needs to re-evaluate some of its more left of centre policies which seemed to cost it votes in the last seven days prior to the election.â€
Surely SF needs to come up with some policies (costed) first before they would be in a position to re-evaluate anything.
This from Chris Gaskin at Balrog, discussing his solutions to SF’s difficulties:
“We must also remember that the electorate in most of the 26 counties are not as trusting as the Northern voters. They require and demand proper policies and proper strategies from us. It’s not like South Armagh or West Belfast where you could stand a donkey with a tricolour and they would get elected.â€
So “the Northern voters†don’t require or demand proper policies or proper strategies? Any auld sh1te put together on a laptop in a pub on a Saturday afternoon is good enough for them?
SF’s potential Southern voters may be pleased to find themselves in the First Class suites of the good ship SF, while their trusting Northern counterparts make do down in Third Class.
Is it just me or does all the talk of dumping or reevaluating the left of centre policies reveal the depth of PSF’s commitment to the socialist ideology they proclaim from the rooftops when it suits them?
It would seem that, unlike in the North, the PSF opportunists got out-done by FF, the consumate opportunists and populists.
And as for the significance of this result. It’s not a disaster, but let’s put it in perspective. In 1989, The Workers’ Party had 7 seats, a TD, and had the second most vote in Dublin, less than 10 years after having its first TD elected, before the collapse of the USSR caused some careerists to manufacture a split.
Despite much more media coverage, being in government in the north, and massive finances, PSF has not even matched this result. Something has gone badly wrong for PSF, and there are no signs that they have understood what it is.
Wilde Rover’s quote is a little over the top but essentially true, the Northern elctorate of which I am one, are infinately more simplistic than their southern counterparts (and are treated as such by SF – and the DUP for that matter)
It is clear that some SF characteristics have worked against them:-
Their simplistic policies
Their claims of being left wing – not popular in the south
Their own claims/propaganda about being popular in the south
Their ‘dirty hands’ as regard to the conflict…also despite their claims not popular in the Republic.
“So “the Northern voters†don’t require or demand proper policies or proper strategies? Any auld sh1te put together on a laptop in a pub on a Saturday afternoon is good enough for them?”
Seriously, has there ever been any evidence that this ISN’T true? Really? Has policy ever mattered squat here.
“SF’s potential Southern voters may be pleased to find themselves in the First Class suites of the good ship SF, while their trusting Northern counterparts make do down in Third Class. ”
No. If SF get their policy act together in the South, it will come right back up here and pull in more votes.
Ohdear,
I disagree with some of your assertions , however it may be worth widening the debate in reference to one point which you have made which I totally agree with.
There is no doubt that the general electorate in The South are far more politically astute and basically far more intelligent than here in the North. Each edition of John Bowman’s ‘Questions and Answers’ on RTE is filled with the majority of audience members liberally quoting detailed data on the state of the economy, Health Service Budgets, The National Debt, Environmental issues etc..etc…
To be honest our equivalent version (‘Lets Talk’)is an absolute embarrassment to all sections of the community here. Many audience members can barely string two words together and the level of debate is intellectually at little more than Secondary School level.
The North has a long, long, way to go to catch up, although one would hope that the return of devolved government would perhaps go some way to educating our electorate in many of the real political day-to-day issues of which many here have little or no detailed knowledge in comparison to our Southern counterparts.
‘audience members liberally quoting detailed data on the state of the economy, Health Service Budgets, The National Debt, Environmental issues etc..etc… ‘
Whilst on Lets Talk the usual rent-a-mob quote the usual whataboutery-and don’t get me started on the now defunct Harry Castles show-Christ talk about duellling banjos….
“Any auld sh1te put together on a laptop in a pub on a Saturday afternoon is good enough for them?”
It seems to have worked for the Sinners so far.
Mention…
1. Socialism
2. Unity
3. How awful the DUP are.
4. that another dreary installment of Gerry’s tedious ongoing autobiography is due for publication.
5. How awful the UUP are.
Throw in a few historical dates (just so we’re SURE that they know when the Easter Rising took place. Start the thing with ‘A chara’, just so we know they’re fluent in two gaelige words. Fanny around with the date ’2016′ and stuff a few discredited socialist theories about health and education, just so we’re SURE that they’ve got a policy distinct from anyone else.
Sorted.
Right, Paddy, you type it up and Seany, get the drinks in. I’m off for a p*ss.
There is no doubt that the general electorate in The South are far more politically astute and basically far more intelligent than here in the North.
We saw that when Gay Byrne hosted “who wants to be a Millionaire”
Maggot,
If thats the best counter argument you can make then you are struggling badly. Have you ever actually seen ‘Questions and Answers’? If so, you could’nt possibly even attempt to argue that’Lets Talk’ contains even an iota of the same intellectual input or content…
As for the Stephen Nolan Show, Jesus what an embarrasment that is. God only knows what tourists coming here make of this place when they witness utter low-life manure such as that…
You need to face realities Maggot, however uncomfortable they may be…
If thats the best counter argument you can make then you are struggling badly.
You need to face realities Maggot, however uncomfortable they may be…
and you need to develop a sense of humor Mac!
Difficult, I know, when the arse has dropped of your pants!
“you could’nt possibly even attempt to argue that’Lets Talk’ contains even an iota of the same intellectual input or content…”
Well it does have a Sinner on the panel most weeks…
Ellie,
A “sinner”? Are you trying to convert us then..?!!! LOL
“Are you trying to convert us then..?!!!”
Yeah. Try switching off the idiot’s lantern and read a book instead. Or colour one in.
There is only one party Berti will not form a coalition with, quess who? http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0527/ahernb.html
Both the Greens and Sinn Fein didn’t do as well as expected by every commentator but they both have lots of new young candidates for the local elections in two years in contrast to Labour which is dominated by the older generation.
Over the next decade there seems likely to be a realignment in the centre left and Sinn Fein will be part of that.
If Fianna Fail and Fine Gael continue to compete for the centre right vote that same centre left will be the kingmakers, not a perfect situation but it will do to be going on with in the next General election
It seems FF and FG would go into government with the Unionists, if they could, before they would do so with SF.
“It seems FF and FG would go into government with the Unionists…..”
…and so they will indeed, sooner than many expect. In fact members of the Reform group in Dublin joined Fine Gael quite happily and some actually became office holders in local associations. They may well still be there as I haven’t heard of them recently.
We are all Irishmen and women after all and the border is disappearing fast, nearly as fast as the unionist majority in the North.
Reunification is going to be an awful anticlimax for the die-hards but as the Southern elections have shown ” It’s all about the economy, Stupid” and despite earlier posts by others I’ve always found that many unionists are intelligent enough to realise where their long term interests lie.
They do have real and understandable fears but time is a great healer, on both sides. We can do this together and no community will be strong enough to dominate the North for the foreseeable future.
After the leaders debates for the first time Adams switched from mass asset to mass liability to SF.
However the main reason for their electoral growth project reversal is that many, many election workers have resigned as a result of corrupt individuals going unpunished for very long periods, perceived leadership bungling and the shortfall in progress to re-unification.
All of these negative factors have piled frustration onto the grass roots workers whilst the party is trapped in the St Andrews net.
The morphing of Eirigi from Dublin based campaigns group to All Ireland political party is a massive threat to Sinn Fein as the energetic members of Eirigi will now embark on a series of campaigns and protests offering young republicans a chance to struggle against Britain outside the confines of the Paisley/Provo executive.
Many disillusioned and ex shinners will rejoin their old comrades especially after Adams’ own goal contributed to the demise of Crowe and their
target shortfall nationally.
Also recent high profile resignations from Dublin City Council like Andrew O’Connell and Tony Smithers (SF’s choice to be Dublin Mayor) will hurt O’Snodaigh’s chances next time round.
It would also be remiss to omit from this analysis
that Daithi Doolan one SF’s young cubs tipped to have an outside chance of election was hammered in Dublin S.E with his general election vote down almost 500 votes on his local government showing with all his local area in the general election ward!
Indeed commentators are correct to state that as a Dail candidate loser Mary Lou will find it harder to retain her seat considering the increased Green
vote, unseating of Crowe,feel bad factor attached to SF and the rise of the repackaged Eirigi- one of whose founding members is her sister and ex SF member Joanne.
Whilst the SF vote grew in some constituencies this does not mean they will be elected next time round – don’t forget Crowe was a poll topper!
Difficult times ahead for Gerry & co for sure especially so since the hard men in the provos accepted disbandment only as a swop for a mass movement- as Robert Ballagh stated “that particular SF project has now been put back at least 5 years or maybe permanently”…….
Was the Rafferty controversy signifiant for Doolan?
It didn’t help anyway.
Ester Uzell picked up 600 votes running against Doolan on the murder issue alone, whilst Doolan only picked up 1500 after working the constituency for 9 or 10 years.
I saw Doolan canvassing Sunday week ago with only one other canvasser- Rose Dugdale a SF veteran of 40 years;- this was in stark contrast to the Dublin SF of old who had dozens of eager beavers running after the candidates. Some of these highly motivated people are now in Eirigi.
Unlikely that EÃrÃgà will pose much of an electoral threat.
Hard to say at this stage slug they are small in number nationally but are very active on campaigns around Dublin and a recent high profile demo outside
Stormont saw some members arrested, it is this kind of publicity that will encourage young radicals to join up.
The danger to the provies in the short term is not really an electoral one unless they decide to enter elections (which is more likely after SF’s bad show)and some disgruntled shinner councillors defect.
The real danger is that they will leech more members from PSF;- this is also more likely now after the said bad showing.
Anyone writing political obituaries for a party based on a single set of election results is unwise. It is how a party reacts to a poor set of results determines the permanance or otherwise of the damage.
Plus as the likes of SF/Greens/PDs are usually last seat battlers smallish swings can have a significant impact in their number of seats. They are more likely to be on a high or low.
SS
“Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, South Dublin
and Dublin city. Fancy trying again with figures that reflect the constituency? ”
I know these areas are in the constiuency, that is why all they are included in the figures already.
I’ll check the CU claim later today.
George
Election performances are always worth noting. They are the warning/progress signs for parties. It is what the do in response to the signs in the intervening period that determines it.
Macswiney
“Fair Deal’s analysis is nationwide and does not reflect results within the boundaries of the
Dublin Euro constituency”
Nope it isn’t the nationwide figures its the Dublin Euro constituency. Although it is maybe worth noting SF’s percentage in the Dublin area was a near match for their national performance.