Another bump in the road ahead?
The loss of a Dail seat may not be the end of Sinn Fein’s electoral problems in Dublin. The general election figures when applied to the Dublin Euro constituency show Mary Lou McDonald’s seat vulnerable to Fianna Fail and possibly the Greens.FF’s growth puts them in with a strong claim to a second Euro seat. The respective party scores were:
Fianna Fail 38.75%
Fine Gael 18.74%
Labour 14.53%
PD’s 4.13%
Greens 8.22%
SF 6.97%
Others 8.61%
With a quota of 20%, the figures project 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour. (Contrary to thread claims these figures are based on the correct consituency make-up)
In the 2002 general election, SF outpolled the Greens, 8% to 7.2% and in physical votes, 40450 to 36501. This was the springboard for SF to take the European seat from the Greens with the party adding 6% and 20,000 votes to their tally. However, on Thursday the Greens effectively reversed the 2002 position taking 8.2% to Sinn Fein’s 7% and in physical votes, 41813 to 35256. So in party rankings the Greens are now fourth and SF fifth in the Dublin party league table.
The 2004 performance meant McDonald was seen as a vote getter but this week’s result puts a major question mark over that. The lower turnout in Euro elections should be some assistance to SF’s cause plus there is a pool of potential voters among the ‘Others’ and following his Dail defeat, Joe Higgins may not run as he did in 2004.
The shinners aren’t finished by a long shot however they may continue to loose power in Dublin a critical area for them.
The point to remember here is not that they lost a seat but are losing many members which contributed to their target shortfall.
As you know when people start deserting a party it can snowball as it leaves the remaining members with to big a mountain to climb especially in the context of a feel bad factor.
The bad showing for SF was not about one days bad news but an accumulation of resignations over the years…..
There’s an easy way to expalin the change on comparative Euro figures and it isn’t anyhing to do with constituency boundaries or any of that bollocks.
Two different elections for two different things. When it came to voting for government and involvement in government SF got a position reflective of where many felt they should be, not in power.
It was a poor election for SF, end of. Parties have poor elections, it is neither fatal nor anything else other than a kick in the balls of reality.
The SF party will always exist but their main aim of a united Ireland as THEY see it will not come about unless they are elected substantially in the 26 co’s and Dublin in particular.
The kick in the balls of reality for them is that they will never return Sean Crowe or new deputies or even hold what they have in Dublin if (outside the election figures) they continue to lose members.
Again I ask you to bear in mind the morphing of Eirigi (formed by ex SFers)to an All Ireland political party last week from being a mere Dublin based campaigns group.
This new challenge to Sinn Fein to retain their dwindling number of members is critical to their status as a relevant force in Dublin more so than preparing for a new electoral outing based on their current figures- there already were a lot of
disillusioned SF members out there before this latest black eye from the electorate.
CTN – wasn’t it always inevitable that Sinn Féin would lose a lot of those type of membership? In other words this was part of Sinn Féin’s evolution, really something that was going to happen?
And aren’t Eirigi basically unlikely to make much electoral impact because there aren’t that many people in the electorate who back their analysis?
SS
The figures for NW Euro constituency are:
FF 39.12%
FG 34.87%
SF 9.78%
Others 7.49%
Labour 3.10%
PDs 2.84%
Green 2.78%
Based on these results with a quota of 25% FF (and even FG) would have a stronger claim to the third seat than SF if they vote managed. However, Pearse Doherty proved a good candidate in 2004, he pulled in 6% and 20,000 more votes than the 2007 perfomance. The habit of this constituency electing an independent is probably a barrier too.
Sure slug, they were always goin to lose the type of headcases that run around with IRA tatooed on their foreheads and thats good for all of us.
But according to Adams and McGuinness the incoming Sinn Fein tide would be the story of the day.
It wasn’t – this is because the usual 200 strong cavalcade of cars to ferry voters to the polling stations wasn’t as large as usual, neither were the amount of SF workers who usually treck door to door canvassing and leafleting up to a year before an election.
Yes Eirigi are unlikely to mushroom electorally;- they haven’t even decided to contest elections yet.
It is the ongoing membership leeching from SF that
will do the harm to that party’s electoral ambitions.
If this is the best they can come up with I don’t think they’re going to do the union much damage. The same old rhetoric, very thin on substance. Then again they’ve learned from the best.
If you mean the shinners are unlikely to damage the union beano- I completely agree.
They have no coherent strategy for Irish Unity other than hoping to get the balance of power in the 26 co’s and then out poll unionists in the north.
This is very vague and dangerous especially when you have a party leader who is hammered in debates about the most important issue in any election anywere in the world- the economy- couldn’t Adams just have taken down a few figures on the back of a matchbox to limit his imbecility- talk about negligence!
His impression as a statesman may be fatally injured here.
As I said earlier he is now as much a liability to SF which is very dangerous for them as apart from their now reduced activist base he was their main asset.
They will survive but if they continue to mess up will become an irrelevance down south, this in turn will harm them up north.
Northern nationalists are mistrusted and barely tolerated by the people in Southern Ireland who don’t want the North to jeopardise its current prosperity.
This must be my twentieth posting on this subject speaking as one of those who voted to give SF the heave-ho.This is not against NI nationalism just the particular brand that SF represents.A few unionists stood stood for election in the ROI in recent decades getting a derisory vote.Yet you cannot extrapolate that ‘northern unionists are mistrusted and barely tolerated…’
,No-one wants us and we don’t care?,
Not so.We passionately care about our northern brethren.Honest!.So much so that we are trying so save a sizeable proportion of them from themselves by puncturing SF below the waterline.
Reading macswiney’s posts is really great entertainment! It’s great fun to read as I don’t doubt for a minute that macswiney believes every word of it.
Regarding the reference to Mary Lou “tackling Bertie n his own doorstep”, I believe that was Garrett Fitzgerald who made that point and Mary Lou didn’t correct him. Tackle Bertie? Just only managed to tickle him and gave us all a laugh at the same time!
Face it macswiney, donnelly, soupy, gaskin etc the majority of Irish people don’t want or support your idea of Irish Republicanism. I suppose Gerry is licking his wounds and singing the old Sam Cooke song…, the one that goes :-
“It’s been a long time coming, but I know a change is gonna come, ”
…only now the change will have to come from SF!
“Yes Eirigi are unlikely to mushroom electorally;- they haven’t even decided to contest elections yet. It is the ongoing membership leeching from SF that will do the harm to that party’s electoral ambitions.”
It seems that many SF members and supporters have turned their back on Gerry Adams and joined éirÃgà (Irish for “arise”) in the Dublin area. Now SF will suffer the fragmentation in the south which they preventing happening in the north by the use of bully boy tactics.
“éirÃgà (Irish for “arise”) is a socialist republican political party in the Republic of Ireland. Formed by a small group of socialist republican activists in Dublin in April 2006 as a political campaigns group, the organisation has grown significantly and on 12 May 2007 its members voted to become a fully-fledged political party. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ÉirÃgÃ
This is not against NI nationalism just the particular brand that SF represents.
But look at the MLAs Southern Observer:
SDLP : 16
SF : 28
The election result was certainly a setback for Sinn Fein but 143,000 First Preference Votes for Sinn Fein suggests that there is a signifcant foundation for the Party to build on over the next 5 years.
Now that the Northern vote is in the bag, the priority is to achieve credible and relevant policies that will appeal to even more of the southern electorate.
The hard work starts here….
I agree with rab that they are not finished and their vote has risen for them to build on, but lets not forget hardline republican support for IRA disbandment is predicated on irreversible growth for SF and as curious has stated they are losing members to a new rival and are certain now after the expansion of that rival that has morphed to a political party to lose many more.
O’Snodaigh only held on by 69 votes, after he was elected in ’02 and returned 3 coucillors in ’04 the provies expected him to top the poll.
Now that “peace” has broken out up north with a united Ireland a long way of O’Snodaigh like many other SF candidates have much fewer workers as their eager canvassers have left the ship for more
radical vessels or merely resigned in disgust and disillusionment.
With Adams’s buffoonery on RTE radio and the small leaders debate being a huge contributory factor in
SF’s reduced return to the Dail, many of those disillusioned members who were thinking of leaving
have more reasons to do so.
Interesting times ahead in Dublin for the provies if Eirigi do decided contest elections but either way they will still leech members from SF…
“The election result was certainly a setback for Sinn Fein..”
To put it mildly!
“…143,000 First Preference Votes for Sinn Fein suggests that there is a signifcant foundation for the Party to build on over the next 5 years.”
I don’t think so. 143,000 out of a voting population of how many? More laughable head burying by the Shinners me thinks! Face it rab, southern voters said (in no uncertain terms) SF just isn’t wanted about the place.
Indeed they don’t cold- and a lot of damage done by their former greatest asset- good ol grizzler himself.
Its good for all Ireland and beyond including SF members to see Adams in his true light- if Carlsberg did over-rated politicians- grizzler is probably the most over-rated in the world.
What a time to make gaffes about MRSI instead of MRSA, getting the wrong constituencies for your candidates, play the poor mouth with prestigious holiday homes and then make an ass out yourself on the most important issue in your most important election- the economy.
All that on top of standing over Denis Donaldson and Steaknife Scappatici for an aggregate of over
3 decades, yet people say he is a clever man.
Clever at impersonating John Hume alright after that his record compares very badly with the likes of Michael Collins……
So this result proves that the shinners are not the All Ireland Party they claim to be. They SF would need to remove this claim from their litrature. I think that the people in the ROI have told them to stay up in Northern Ireland.
ANOTHER FINE MESS Mr Adams
Indeed bull- Adams’ ineptitude has repulsed the southern electorate, even smart republicans will admit privately the provisional movement’s amateurism and introspection have put people of a united Ireland and thus the day off its inception back considerably…
Just a thought…
How long does it take before a party can ditch it’s leader without it seeming to have been forced in to doing so?
Like I say, ‘just a thought…