What the bookies say…
There are some who say that the bookmakers, rather than the pollsters who make the more accurate predictions. BettingMarket.com has the latest from Betfair.com which currently suggests (at the moment) that the result will be a Fianna Fail/Labour coalition (if tonight’s barney between Rabbitte and Cowan is anything to go by there will have to be a lot of hard swallowing before that happens). And on PaddyPower.com has just moved into the same conclusion. The fastest drop though is the price of the FF/PD/Green combination.
Don’r worry Mick. I covered the 1992 Election and heard a great deal of the same talk from both parties before and during the election. It didn’t stop them going into government, though it has to be admitted that their joint reign only lasted until the Fr Brendan Smith/Whelehan scandal blew up in their faces two years later. Labour could go in, and then switch sides when it became uncomfortable….
it’s happened before.
I don’t doubt it for a moment. But there is some serious heat between Rabbitte and pretty much anyone in FF.
So it’s looking like an alliance between Bertie’s “socialists” and Pat’s “smoked salmon socialists”!
Labour propping up FF isn’t going to be a runner.
Labour’s middle class “anyone but Fianna Fail” vote will melt like snow off a ditch away from them and Sinn Fein will move into Labour’s heartlands and destroy them.
The outcome of this election can’t be taken for granted. There’s plenty of spin going on at the moment, but don’t underestimate the anger in huge swathes of the electorate here.
SF propping up FF is hardly a runner either.
FF have played a very clever game destroying the alternative and pulling the greens towards them while dismissing SF as a possible partner. This stop the surge to the alternative nationally while it also leaves the first time SF vote wondering is their vote wasted. FF honestly believe that it is their devine right to govern and comE saturday they will deal with whoever it takes and that includes Sinn Fein.
IMO even if SF have the ace cards it would be madness to enter government at this stage. Continue to build the party and prepare for the next time.
Cel,
“Sinn Fein will move into Labour’s heartlands and destroy them.”
I would have thought that was part of the SF strategy. The big problem for Labour is not in the spin and counterspin of this election, it is the essential stagnation of their ratings over the last few years. In such circumstances, a younger, more dynamic SF could do precisely what you suggest, whilst nibbling at the working class FF vote and borrowing transfers in from the Greens.
“In such circumstances, a younger, more dynamic SF could do precisely what you suggest, whilst nibbling at the working class FF vote and borrowing transfers in from the Greens.”
With that in mind, surely it is better for SF to be out of government at the moment? If they go into coalition with FF it means they are no longer an oppositional voice. With this election possibly being one to lose (and people will tire of FF at some point, even just for a while), and the fact they will be in government in the North anyway, 2012 might be better for possible coalitions.