Should Unionism do a Salmond in South Belfast?
The SNP has achieved significant advances in the Scottish elections (* more below the fold). Part of the SNP’s electoral strategy was the party leadership standing in target not safe seats. Alex Salmond took the greatest risk running in Gordon, eighteenth on the SNP’s target list, and it paid off. The seat was won with almost twice the national swing to the SNP.
Unionism will be targeting South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone in the forthcoming Westminster elections. The recent Assembly result in South Belfast has given Unionism cause to think with between 2000-4000 regular Unionist voters sitting at home and neither nominal Westminster candidates (Spratt and McGimpsey) appearing to have caught the electorate’s imagination. Besides the electoral pact to be sorted out, should Unionism look about moving in a big name to run? In 2005 the Unionist vote was over 16,000 and greater than 50% and even with a poor performance in 2007 Unionism outpolled Nationalism so it is a winnable and holdable seat. PLUS nearly all existing seats are safe making a change of candidate unlikely to threaten a seat. A big name would also communicate how serious Unionism was about creating the positive story of winning back a seat from Nationalism.
* The SNP advance seems to have been achieved primarily by mopping up the pro-independence SSP vote and a few percentage points off Labour. However, the advances are not as great as predicted with the SNP and Labour almost tied in the popular vote and so far Labour have a clearer lead over the SNP in the regional vote although a bigger SNP lead in the regional vote.
129 seats of 129 declared
SNP 47
LAB 46
CON 17
LD 16
Others 3
Are you thinking of anyone in particular FD?
SM
I have an open mind on the who
For the SNP to increase their seats by 74% is amazing.
Even though the polls have been predicting it, it is amazing to see it come to pass.
Even with the polls the way they were I thought coming a handful of seats behind Labour would be a massive result.
Now, they should stay clear of government (are you listening Reg) and sweep up even more seats next time around.
Not only are the SNP and Labour separated by only the smallest of margins, so are the Lib Dems and the Cons. Surely, the Cons will not go into government with either the SNP or Labour. So that leaves the Lib dems to be king maker.
But, this is the fascinating thing. If they choose Labour, they’ll need to include the two Greens to get an overall majority. But if they go with the SNP they only need the independent (of whom I know nothing).
Fascinating – Absolutely fascinating!!!
smcgiff, I think the one independent is Margo MacDonald, ardent nationalist and until not too long ago SNP member. Could get very interesting.
Jocky,
That’s right she is a former SNP MP and senior member of the party. She’d have no trouble supporting them.
Very interesting, Jocky.
I would imagine the Lib Dems would be more inclined to go with Labour. But, they would then need the greens, which would probably mean less “jobs” for the Lib Dems.
As you say, a very interesting few days of horse trading ahead!
That’s right she is a former SNP MP and senior member of the party. She’d have no trouble supporting them.
So you’d think if it were just about policy. But she left the SNP in an amazingly bitter way. I’m not sure how she’d react to be honest. The Greens 2 seats aren’t really enough to make Robin Harper a minister so I suppose some form of minority administration is most likely.
The big problem the Lib Dems have is that the last pact with Labour they were very much the junior partner, why vote for Labour-lite?
considering their core principles, or at least policies, are in opposition ot labour on the iraq war, on nuclear, on trident, etc, SNP would be a much closer fit. Apart form the national question.
So do they sell their principles even more chepaly for a pact with Labour. have they no self respect?
Why folk get soo hung up on borders is beyond me.
YA BEAUTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a great day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
‘Why folk get soo hung up on borders is beyond me.’
Sure, tis only a line on the map!
“Now, they should stay clear of government (are you listening Reg) and sweep up even more seats next time around.”
Not a chance, Alex Salmond makes Bob McCartney look modest. He can’t wait to get into the First Minister’s chair.
“But, this is the fascinating thing. If they choose Labour, they’ll need to include the two Greens to get an overall majority. But if they go with the SNP they only need the independent (of whom I know nothing).”
Your sums are slightly wrong. SNP+Lib Dems+Greens equals the magic number of 65, and they could probably rely on Margo McDonald’s support as well.
Labour+Lib Dems+Greens=only 64.
I actually think the best result for Labour would be an SNP minority government. Had they clung on they would have got a bigger hammering next time.
Should the Lib Dems switch horses without the SNP dropping the independence referendum they will also be punished next time round. best thing for them to do is to sit it out this time.
An SNP minority government will find it very hard to deliver and could resemble Ramsay mcDonald’s first short lived administation.
Labour might not think it now, but this isn’t the worst of results for them.
dodrade,
Sorry, I’d the Lib Dems on 17 and not the Cons.
SNP must be favourite to take the reins so. Either as minority or with the Lib Dems and greens.
Yip with only 47 (48?) they would have too small a minority to govern well or for long. Which may not be a bad thing. If it is seen that the other parties bring down an SNP government it might bode well for the subsequent election.
Fair_Deal,
are you suggesting Peter Robinson run in South Belfast by any chance?
I agree – not a bad result at all for Labour in Scotland & Wales given some of the poll predictions against them.
Looks like SNP will have to form a minority government with a majority, including LD+GP of just one seat – nothing like a good recipe for an independence referendum campaign.
The Tories meanwhile will have to reflect long and hard on their failure to make their much-trumpeted breakthrough in Northern England; even under Cameron they still too much resemble a southern England provincial party.
All in all, not the worst place for Brown to start from, given the expectations.
They’re having a great day of it over in BBC Alba Radio nan Gaidheal:-
“Se latha mor an eachdraidh ar tir a tha ann†they say. “Oh, ’s’ann, ’s’ann.†Scirl of pipes, sound of clinking of glasses.
What a great country, where the Presbyterians speak Gaelic and vote Nationalist!
Hopefully some compromise will emerge with Socialist policies being enacted in a Nationalist framework. It makes for a much more democratic feel when each of the parties needs to compromise with the others.
As for the subject of this thread. No hope. Next election, Unionists in minority, Alliance hold balance of power.
George
As I said I have an open mind on the who
Labour’s result in Wales was very good, a loss of only three seats. indeed Labour only lost four in Scotland, the SNP’s gains came largely at the expense of the Greens and the SSP.
“All in all, not the worst place for Brown to start from, given the expectations.”
The Scottish result will hurt Brown in the short term but it could, perhaps should have been worse. Hopefully it will give him the spur he needs to get British Troops out of Iraq by the end of the year and to scrap ID cards. I still think the odds favour Brown more than Cameron, though a hung parliament still looks most likely.
>>What a great country, where the Presbyterians speak Gaelic and vote Nationalist!<<
Quote of the day Paddy! LOL
BTW what are they saying?
Like all parties in power, the SNP position will moderate over the coming months – particularly if they need to strike a deal with the LibDems. A UDI referendum may be on the SNP wishlist but it is hardly likely for some time.
The North/South divide on the Scottish map on the BBC website is interesting – the majority below the central belt voted for GB parties, whilst the majority above the central belt voted SNP.
(The Lowlanders aye had mair sense than the ither yins)
PE
What are they saying, you daft sasunnach chiel?
“This is a great day in the history of our county.â€â€Oh, it is, it is.â€
Sound of drams being drunk, teuchtars throwing up, etc.
the reason salmond and sturgeon could afford to fight marginal seats is due to the ‘additional member’ system of pr used…….if they had lost they would have been elected through their position on the party list…..
great result for the snp considering the media coverage was totally negative……..they have bucked the accepted wisdom that an election cannot be won without the support of at least one tabloid…..on the contrary, the two main tabloids carried rabidly anti-nationalist headlines yesterday……the sun had a picture of a noose with the headline ‘don’t hang scotland, don’t vote snp’……..
Personally even though I’m not an SNP supporter.I think Alex Salmond should be the First Minister,his party is the biggest even though it’s only by one seat.The one good thing to come out of this will hopefully be that because no one party has an overall majority,even with coalitions it will be difficult to get policies passed without general support from most of the different parties.So more people will feel the party they support,whoever they are,will at least have a say and contribution in how Scotland is run !
OK, crazy idea time, but why not have a SNP + CON coallition, they have 64 + either Margo or the greens. Bobs your Uncle.
the reasons why;
1) To get one over Labour in Scotland
2) To really put the firghteners on Labour in England, if Soctland became independent the conservatives would stroll it. Also Scotland was traditionally a conservative country, until Thatcher obliterated them. If they dropped the unionist schtick they benefit in scotland and in england
Real Politik at it’s finest.
Labour aren’t left with a pot to piss in, SNP get Scotland, Conservatives regain credibility in scotland and as a bonus get to govern England, Wales and NI (OK the Wales and NI bit probably aint a bonus).
Also Scotland was traditionally a conservative country, until Thatcher obliterated them.
Actually if you look at the long term fall in the Conservative vote in Scotland the biggest drop came under Ted Heath.
Spratt and McGimpsey “appearing to have caught the electorate’s imagination”. Surely not!
For the foreseeable the Tories are persona non grata amongst the majority of Scots Jocky. A new Scottish party of the centre right has been floated as an idea, but no bites so far.
I’m not a hundred percent sure (can’t find details) but I think the SNP won the popular vote, thus this adds legitimacy of a kind. The so called democrats in the Lib-Dem’s have stated that they do not wish to let the people choose for themselves in a referendum on independence, which in my opinion cost them votes. I wonder if these ‘democrats’ would dare snub the SNP and set up a govt. with Labour
Anyway, enough of this nonsense about West Minster and South Belfast and all that, lets talk about the real election that’s on everyone’s lips. The vote that’s got the whole country in a tissle. I’m talking of course of monopoly.ie! That’s right, they’re making a new Irish monolopy. Trouble is, there’s only 26 places. 32 counties. You do the math.
Derry was 5th there a while ago but I see we’ve very cleverly decided on a tactical drop back to 10th to let the other counties catch up. But I feel the time is right to make the leap back up again. So all true Derry men on Slugger, as Sinn Fein would say, Vote Early and Vote Often!
Any chance of a thread on this very important election?
On Finnish National State news, the FIRST item on the news is SNP’s result.
(www.yle.fi)
Perhaps the Finns have a hunch that there will soon be another new independent European Republic.
The Finns may not be the only ones with that hunch, I’d say.
So, SNP 47 seats, Labour 46, Tories 17, Liberal Democrats 16, Greens 2.
Correct me if I’m wrong here, discounting the political prostitutes of the LDs…pro Union parties 63 seats, those arguing for an *independent* (or alternatively, pissed off with a corrupt and incompetent Scottish Labour Party) Scotland 47.
Bring on the referendum asap.
Re the S Belfast question, forget Robinson (too East Belfast to pull in the golf club unionists). Donaldson is a much better bet, big name and the orange connection should guarantee the w/c unionist vote in Belvoir,Annadale, Sandy row, Taughmonagh, Donegal Pass etc. Also the m/c will be impressed with his little ventures into the W. belfast festival, RTE etc- the acceptable face of DUPism for the snobs.
I agree we should do the referendum as so as ! I actually think it’s a political mistake for the SNP not to hold it just now.Plus it would get it out of the way,whatever way it goes.So we can then focus on our economy , education , health etc,etc
Not sure what the current thinking is after Trimbles mess up on what I seen as a most reasonable offer from the DUP re: SB & F&ST last time around
Haven’t really studied the figures of voting patterns etc. but I imagine the DUP would take the free run in F&ST with Arlene Foster. So It would likely be a candidate from the UU camp.
Reg or Basil McCrea
hey Prince – Had a word wirh Rhodri and we have agreed to sell u Strachclyde for 14.3% of oil revenues for the next 300 years … deal ? – kidding – brilliant result !!!!
Just been watching the election reaction on Newsnight and the parallels between the SNP/ Labour battle and the DUP/ UUP battle here over the last five years. Labour tried to paint the SNP as a dangerous and distasteful (confrontational is the word Labour are now using) option and some of the language was very similar to the UUP attitude that the DUP were really beneath them without the breeding for government that Ulster Unionists have. Also the reaction to the result also triggers deja vu. Labour are banging on about how they avoided the meltdown commentators predicted (sound familiar)and how the SNP’s small margin over them was unconvincing. They clearly are in the early stages of the mistaken UUP mindset that the result was a blip and the people will soon come round. Anyone prepared to put money on Labour not learning the lessons or recognising the need to change leading to a bigger SNP team the next time and at least two terms of nationalist rule in Scotland?
The insular thinking of those who post on this site as ‘unionists’ is shocking.
If there is a lesson from Scotland to NI or South Belfast it is that those who believe in the Union should not dance to nationalist tunes.
Have you heard today any talk of the Lib, Con and Lab thowing their lot in together in one party in order for unionism to win back their ‘south Belfasts’?
No – they are confident of their overall position and realise that to do so would only play into the SNP hands.
So called unionists in NI do precisely that – they deliberately keep themselves isolated from the politcs of the Union and work to the ‘nationalist framework of reference’
The extent of this warped virtually anti British feeling is seen in a UUP which admits to has no influence at Westminster and seems to not to care and a DUP which pushes a separtist agenda by seeking to break up the unified tax system of the UK
(True unionists who believe NI needs tax cuts would argue for UK tax cuts not NI only ones)
It is becoming increasingly clear that Sinn Fein’s strategy is to ‘play the government’ game and maintain their vote and wait until unionism – foolishly continues down the Prot Unionist/Six county party agenda – which fails to inspire increasing numbers of unionist voters. This will eventually lead to the ironic position that while a united ireland is no more popular than it has ever been the Assembly will have a nationalist majority.
Anyone who remains in the UUP or DUP is complicit in faciliating this agenda.
“Re the S Belfast question, forget Robinson (too East Belfast to pull in the golf club unionists). Donaldson is a much better bet, big name and the orange connection should guarantee the w/c unionist vote in Belvoir,Annadale, Sandy row, Taughmonagh, Donegal Pass etc.2
I presume the Belvoir uda, Annadale uff, Sandy row uvf, Taughmonagh( I’m the man, jackie mcdonald)uda/uff, Donegall Pass uvf will all be consulted on the possible selection of an agreed unionist candidate ?
A DUP/UUP pact on FST and SB might prompt a SDLP/SF pact on SB and NB.
>>What a great country, where the Presbyterians speak Gaelic and vote Nationalist!<<
..ah but the Gaelic speaking Nationalist voting Presbyterians are..er most likely to be anti-RC-(outside of those at a southwest Glasgow sporting venue at noon today- quite a few of whom will be Asian)-confused? well you should be if you make simple Irish-based generalisations
“So called unionists in NI do precisely that – they deliberately keep themselves isolated from the politcs of the Union and work to the ‘nationalist framework of reference’”
Hmmm-unlike the Scots Tories who spent years pretending they were nothing to do with Major or Thatcher post-poll tax, and then embraced devolution after years of opposing it to the point of electoral oblivion at Westminster.Who until Dave (“Hello Dave-can my wife use your toilet?”) came along,were steadfastly proud of their independence from Smith Square etc.
Sorry Bob, you gravitate to the politics of where you can get power. That’s why Lib Dems can’t decide whether they’re anti-Labour in the cities or anti-Tory in the shires.
I presume the Belvoir uda, Annadale uff, Sandy row uvf, Taughmonagh( I’m the man, jackie mcdonald)uda/uff, Donegall Pass uvf will all be consulted on the possible selection of an agreed unionist candidate ?
“wesley”
I’d like to think that wouldn’t be the case, but since both Unionist parties seem to have no scruples with going into government with ex(?)-terrorists, it wouldn’t surprise me unfortunately.
Darth.
Thanks for your concern but we have been doing quite well in Scotland providing anti-RC bigots with education. As a result they have been totally marginalised and no longer represent a significant portion of Scottish society. Also the times when some Asians (minute amount) would have gone to ibrox has long gone. The general availability of right-wing, racist and BNP paraphernalia. Oh that and the fact that racist parties feel comfortable leafleting and canvassing Ibrox on match days whilst the SNP don’t.
Dewi.
Considering that we are all original Britons then you can have a loan of it for two weeks in the summer. It was a fantastic feeling yesterday, lots of hugging, phone calls and texts. There is (hopefully) no going back now!
Salmond and co have a strategy that has worked magnificently well so far. They believe that allowing the people to judge them in government will help overcome all the propaganda that is waged by an anti-Scottish local media. It is no surprise to me that some on here are calling for a referendum straight away, sure they would save money by not having to pay double for all their negative campaigning. The SNP will trust the people to do the right thing, we are well on the right road.
Eoghan,
What’s it got to do with you? Are you not Irish?
Internal Scottish affairs is a matter for that people only.
Isn’t the SNP Voter-base traditionally hostile to the Roman Catholic Church?
PE,
Congratulations, a fine result for yourselves and for all English patriots (although an SNP landslide would have been nice but there you go!) but I personally think that patience is needed regarding a referendum as by 2010 England will have had three years of government led by a man with no mandate to govern us. I believe that the English will be so disgruntled by then that when Scotland gets her referendum, the cry for one in England too will be so loud that even prudence Brown himself will not be able to ignore it. I predict that England would vote overwhelmingly for independence which would of course mean Scotland would also get independence whether she voted for it or not.
Correct me if I’m wrong here, discounting the political prostitutes of the LDs…pro Union parties 63 seats, those arguing for an *independent* (or alternatively, pissed off with a corrupt and incompetent Scottish Labour Party) Scotland 47.
Nope. Pro-independence – SNP, Green and Margot – 50. Pro-union – Lab, LD and Con – 79.
The so called democrats in the Lib-Dem’s have stated that they do not wish to let the people choose for themselves in a referendum on independence, which in my opinion cost them votes.
What’s undemocratic? Parties/candidates in favour of an Independence referendum in the next four years – 50. Parties against an independence referendum in the next four years – 79. You might not agree with the result but all the parties were refreshingly clear about their position in the campaign and there is no majority for holding a referendum. It would be much more undemocratic if the LibDems agreed to a referendum to keep their Ministerial seats. I’m all in favour of a SNP-LD coalition personally, but the SNP can’t win a parliamentary vote on holding a referendum so they ought to ditch that particular shibboleth now and negotiate for a Programme for Government which can command a workable parliamentary majority.
..ah but the Gaelic speaking Nationalist voting Presbyterians are..er most likely to be anti-RC-(outside of those at a southwest Glasgow sporting venue at noon today- quite a few of whom will be Asian)-confused? well you should be if you make simple Irish-based generalisations
I think Darth’s point is that Ibrox is in a strongly Asian part of Glasgow, where SNP support has grown dramatically among Scots-Pakistanis in recent years. And that the SNP were traditionally perceived by many Scottish Catholics as a Protestant party intent on creating a Scottish Stormont in Edinburgh. And you still find plenty of elderly Scottish Catholics who are vehemently Unionist, as well as being vehement Celtic supporters, precisely because they believe an independent Scotland would see Catholics as an excluded minority. Rubbish in my view and that of most Scottish Catholics below the age of 60, but it still persists among the elderly. Why do you think the East End of Glasgow is still relatively weak territory for the SNP? This isn’t the SNP’s fault, but historical prejudices can still persist in the absence of real reasons for holding them, as we know only too well in NI.
And the really important point is that the independence debate in Scotland is much less a tribal one than in Northern Ireland. A much better comparator is Quebec, and even that has more of a tribal element to it.
but historical prejudices can still persist in the absence of real reasons for holding them, as we know only too well in NI.
The decline of the Tories in the West of Scotland mirrored that in metropolitan parts of Northern England. Protestantism declined steeply as both a religious force and a means of political identification in the decades after the Second World War and along with it the traditional working-class Tory vote. Add to that a dramatic generational change in self-perception among Scots from every class and region and Scots Tories were always going to be caught in a difficult pincer movement.
You can blame in on the poll tax if it suits your agenda, but remember that the Tories gained Scottish votes and seats in the 1992 General Election that took place in the shadow of the poll tax fiasco. Much as I hate the old bitch, saying Thatcher destroyed the Scottish Tories is just unhistorical.
“What’s undemocratic? Parties/candidates in favour of an Independence referendum in the next four years – 50. Parties against an independence referendum in the next four years – 79. You might not agree with the result but all the parties were refreshingly clear about their position in the campaign and there is no majority for holding a referendum. It would be much more undemocratic if the LibDems agreed to a referendum to keep their Ministerial seats. I’m all in favour of a SNP-LD coalition personally, but the SNP can’t win a parliamentary vote on holding a referendum so they ought to ditch that particular shibboleth now and negotiate for a Programme for Government which can command a workable parliamentary majority.”
Why on earth should the SNP play Sammy ? Raison d’etre is freedom – the referendum is what they campaigned on – why on earth should they bother with the difficulties of governing without the prospect of constitutional advance ?
Salmond, if anything, is a strategist, and he’s in a hurry. I forsee some compromise on wording of the question with the LIB Dems (who have a history of neo-nationalism. Honestly can’t see SNP forming an administration without that commitment.
On a technical point we have a stupid electoral system in Wales and Scotland which only produces proportionality if people vote the same way on first and second ballots. Where (as is the case in many parts of both countries)one party dominates a region, the second vote for that party is a complete waste. What the SNP and Plaid should do is form another nationalist party in both countries which only puts up list candidates – like put up “original” nationalists for the constituencies and “continuity” nationalists on the list – I reckon that’s what Sinn Fein would do !!!
Sammy
I disagree with your stance on just what is democracy, especially when you consider that upto 40% of Labour supporters would be in favour of independence. What is clear from this election is that the labour die-hards rallied to try to keep them in power. This was a political party election not as Labour desperately tried to portray it as a vote on independence.
However labour supporters posed with the question of Scotland giving England her independence…watch this space!
Many high profile Tories are coming round to the cause of independence also, they view Holyrood as a wasteful half-way house. They would rather all or nothing. Thus we may assume even some of the Tory vote may go for independence. Indeed the idea of a Scottish centre-right party independent of London may grow as time goes on.
The Lib-Dem’s are so wishy washy that who knows what portion would do what. The SNP have won the popular vote and seats, I dare these bastards to deny the stated will of a massive section of the public.
I may have mis-read part of Darth’s post.
Phil
We added over 10% onto the vote increased by 20 seats. Considering the dark forces in the media ranged against us, imagine what we could have done. We are over the moon
I have noticed you guys are picking up more and more support as well. Word of advice though, time to ditch the bad guys better now than never, less bloody!
I would think that Unionist pacts, if agreed would claw back BS and FST.
The issue of which unionist party takes which seat would interest me. Although both seats’ unionists seem to prefer the DUP there are still a UUP loyal vote in each that won’t wane, meaning the DUP can’t manage either without a pact.
I imagine the DUP would choose FST as they’re grooming Arlene as a minister (who ever hears of Spratt), and the satisfaction of beating Sinn Fein (and fellow Minister Michelle Gildernew) would be some delightful battle honours. That said they’ve been trying to crack BS for a while (with Willie McCrea believing he’d win the 1982 by-election). It does have more unionists, however in 2007 I must say the SDLP pulled off a divide and rule strategy so impressive, it made them the largest party in SB with barelty 26% of the vote. Whilst unionists hold half the FST seats.
I expect it to be the DUP’s decision (if it comes to pass). The UUP will (& should) stand where they’re sent- face it they could use the extra MP. I’ll add in here that if FST 2007 was compared to FST 2005 all parties lost votes- except the UUP who managed to add about 500 to their 2005 tally. Not a springboard for electoral success granted, but a small mercy for which the party should now be grateful.
Then the matter of nationalist pacts arises. Hmmm… they’ve been resistant in the past, with the two parties historically splitting the nationalist vote in FST, Mid Ulster, Newry & Armagh, South Down and West Tyrone: sometimes to unionists’ advantage and other times less so. Why should they start pacts now? Well the old policing issue is gone, making the 2 nationalist parties indistinguishable, at least in policy terms. However I think that Sinn Fein are out to destroy the SDLP in Foyle and South Down, which hardly puts them in the mood for doing much to help Sinn Fein.
I suppose in these 2 races everything is to play for.
Sorry I avoided the Scottish election question and only addressed the actual NI topic.
Why on earth should the SNP play Sammy ?
Because Alex Salmond wants to be First Minister. Really, really, really wants to be First Minister. You can smell that hunger from Belfast!
If Salmond is such a great strategist, he’ll realise that a successful period of SNP government is probably a prerequisite to winning a referendum (one of many in my book). And he’ll realise that losing a referendum narrowly, especially if it has been bitter, can be the worst result of all. He’ll be well aware of what happened in Quebec during and after 1995.
And he’ll certainly realise that any referendum involving the Scottish Labour Party will be bitterness and nastiness made flesh.
Raison d’etre is freedom
Ah, such a narrow concept of freedom!!! Wittgenstein, where are you now?