El Blogador has the results of tomorrow’s Irish Times poll, which shows a significant rise for Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael, and a slip for Fianna Fail.
Full results: FF 34 (-3) FG 31 (+5) Lab 10 (-1) Greens 6 (-2) PD 3 (+2) SF 10 (+1) Ind 6 (-2).
Northern Ireland’s peace process has been promoted as an international success story. The Republic’s Department of Foreign Affairs has its Conflict Resolution Unit, which aims to disseminate the ‘lessons’ of the Northern Ireland peace process. And some of the prominent players in our peace process have travelled abroad to other troubled spots to share their [...] read our review »
Fair play to Iain, he managed to get over 2,200 people voting in his poll for the top Northern Irish blogs this year… We (just, I imagine) retained our top spot, with Splintered coming straight in at number 2, no doubt his pet subject du jour will have garnered him a lot of fans… I’ve [...] read our review »
With perhaps the longest title of any book I’ve read this year, The Media Relations Department of Hizbollah Wishes You a Happy Birthday: Unexpected Encounters in the Changing Middle East gives an insight into the lives of people living in Middle East through the eyes of journalist Neil MacFarquhar. MacFarquhar’s father was a chemical engineer [...] read our review »
Provos or tree huggers with balance of power
Mick
Sinn Fein also doing well in this poll- the second showing the party in double figures since March- and upwards from the two poll readings last weekend.
Having said all of that, still think polls need taken with pinch of salt, though us anoraks obviously love them.
The story of the poll must be the narrowing of the FF/FG margin. Bertie must wish he’d gone to the polls months ago now.
Remarkable strides made by FG. Bertie may yet have to rely on Sinn Fein. Bet he can’t wait for a United Ireland, when he could have a FF/DUP coalition, which would shaft SF.And rule for ever probably.
Chris,
The unadjusted figures have SF in 3rd.
Core Figures:
FF 32
FG 23
SF 8
Lab 7
GR 4
PD 2
Others 5
Undecided 19
With undecideds excluded (no adjustment):
FF : 40
FG : 28
SF : 10
Lab : 9
Others : 6
Greens : 5
PDs : 2
Personally I have long had problems with the TNS-MRBI polls – especially since they introduced “readjustments” that apportion much of the undecideds to FG on the assumption that they are being under-represented and that FF is being over-represented. I understand that the unadjusted figures for FF and FG are 32% and 23% respectively. If true (source on politics.ie), that would amount to a 9% FF lead being converted into a 3% one. Sounds excessive to me. I’m still going with Red C because their telephone-polling methodology mirrors to some degree ICM’s and ICM were more accurate than TNS-MRBI or indeed anyone else in 2002.
Chris,
Five points is two above the margin of error. If you only are only going to mention one thing, that’s clearly it. I don’t think we have seen that kind of shift upwards in the opposition since the last election. Trouble is that they still seem to be swapping ratings between themselves and Labour.
I have felt for a long time that Labour is in trouble. Not because they are falling significantly, but they are still failing to get themselves out of a very tight box of around 10-12%.
SS,
You are still in joint third, even on the adjusted figures. But that’s the result of a shift of just 1% up (SF) and 1% down (Labour).
Very interesting election ahead & a bit more interesting than our recent carve up.
An interesting bet and odds from Paddy Power (noted on politics.ie), the TNS/MRBI is clearly thought most likely to be accurate by the bookies – EVENS with RedC sitting at 2/1:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=8224
While some like to talk up the long term polling of RedC clearly the bookies have studied the form and judged it to be less accurate than TNS/MRBI.
Brian Boru
“…apportion much of the undecideds to FG on the assumption that they are being under-represented and that FF is being over-represented.”
Reminds me of a great anecdote I once heard of a time when De Valera went on the canvass in his Co Clare stronghold. He knocked on a door and it was answered by a 90-year-old man who was a little hard-of-hearing and poor-of-sight. He tried to pitch himself to the man, who was decidedly unimpressed with the Chief’s spiel.
“And which party did ye say ye were canvassing for?” cried the old man.
“Fianna Fail,” cried De Valera.
“You’re wasting your time, young fella,” replied the ould fella, “We’re all Dev supporters here…”
This opinion poll is a complete farse. The problem is obviously the readjustments. I would have absolutely no problem betting my SSIA money on FF beating FG by more than 3pc. Doubt if even Ivan Yates would be brave enough to offer odds on this.