The BBC is speculating that Dessie Ward, a Banbridge councillor from an SDLP background family, is on the verge of taking a seat in Upper Bann, not from the SDLP’s Dolores Kelly, but from one of the Unionists. An amazing steal, if he pulls it off!
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FYI, Dessie has been a member of SF since his teens, certainly never connected with the SDLP
The demographics suggested this was perfectly possible and indeed, due.
He looks far enough ahead to claim it.
Looking at the figures now it appears he is likely to pull it off. When Savage is eliminated assuming his votes split 50/50 to the DUP it would take an 85% transfer rate to pull it off. Unless regional variations come into play and McCrum gets a higher proportion of transfers SF are home and dry.
What a steal.
Very interesting …
Another demonstration of a fracture of the Unionist vote. A spilt between the UUP and DUP.
Unionists are apathetic.
Observer.
Correct. I await figures to see the extent of diffeential voting but it looks distinctly like there is one.
I don’t think so, much as it would be fantastic. Sam Gardiner has about 800 undistributed surplus votes to be handed round.
I wouldn’t be at all surprise to see Ward still ahead after Savage’s votes have been transferred, but then Gardiner’s surplus would be enough to put the second DUP in.
Am I reading that right?
I live in Upper Bann and would still be very surprised if Ward takes a seat. But if he does its a great result
Going down Meeting House Lane in Banbridge is a very fine old peoples home called Crozier House. Last week a poster of three very elderly men (Hatch,Gardiner, Savage) was on a lamp post outside.
They looked older than the residents (although at 54 I hate ageism)
If Ward does “steal” (oddly neutral verb) the seat, I hope it is not treated as another rural crime on the elderly (so prevelant in our constituency)
Its a pure catch up job here. Ward has few transfers left to add to so its down to what way the Unionists transfer.
He’s done all his vote getting, its now catch me if you can.
Jonah,
Gardiner got over 1,300 of Hatch’s votes when he was eliminated.
Moutray got just 70 and Crum 60.
Why is an issue being made of his alleged family backround?
I’m not saying Ward taking the seat is impossible. But Savage’s votes will put Moutray past Ward. He needs 25 votes to do that and Savage has over 3,000.
Savage’s votes should also narrow the gap between McCrum and Ward. Then, Gardiner will have 1,200 votes to transfer. Sure, some of them will be non-transferable. But what are tansferable will surely favour McCrum over Ward.
I take your point George about Hatch’s transfers, but in that situation it was UUP votes being transferred with a UUP candidate in the mix. In the situation we’re talking about, it’s UUP votes being transferred with only DUP and SF candidates in the mix.
A very different sceál.
Jonah,
RTE have it as to get the last two seats:-
Ward SF 4715
Mountray DUP 4691
McCrum DUP 3435
Savage UUP 3045
There’s 1,646 votes between McCrum and Ward. I don’t see how SF wont get the 6ths seat. There’d have to be huge Savage transfers from the UUP candidate (bypassing his own party colleague) to the DUP.
Petey
Arsehole journalism maybe?
Jonah,
I am assuming that the majority of Savage’s second preferences will be to fellow UUP candidates and therefore non-transferable.
The overwhelming majority of Hatch’s transfers went to the UUP.
While there will likely be none to Ward, there will be a certain amount to DUP candidates, but certainly not the 1,300 Crum will need to pass Ward.
Seems he is home and dry to me.
McGiff, I’m not arguing that Savage’s transfers will put both DUP past Ward. I’ve said I don’t think that will happen.
I’m saying that AFTER that, we have yet to transfer Gardiner’s surplus, which amounts to about 1,200 votes and THAT count, will push McCrum past Ward.
I’m sorry. Everyone seems to be ignoring Gardiner’s surplus. Do I have my facts wrong? According to the RTE website he has an undistributed surplus of over a thousand votes. Is this wrong?
Jonah – as much as I want to see SF get the seat I think your analysis is spot on.
Unless UUP don’t vote down the ticket to the DUP in un precedented numbers it won’t go to SF.
The other possibility which I have alluded to on another thread is that I dont understand PR.
Looking at the figures now it appears he is likely to pull it off. When Savage is eliminated assuming his votes split 50/50 to the DUP it would take an 85% transfer rate to pull it off. Unless regional variations come into play and McCrum gets a higher proportion of transfers SF are home and dry.
Maybe I’m missing something here, but surely Gardiner has 1,240 of a surplus still to be distributed?
Gardiner (UUP) 7,367
Ward (SF) 4,715
Moutray (DUP) 4,691
McCrum (DUP) 3,435
Savage (UUP) 3,045
Quota: 6,127
Undistributed surplus: Kelly (SDLP) 64.
Is that not likely to move Savage ahead of McCrum? Hatch’s transfers seemed to be loyal enough (app. 1,800 to Gardiner and Savage out of 2,100).
The question then would be whether DUP transfers (McCrum would undoubtedly push Moutray over the quota) would reverse the gap between Ward and Savage.
Mmm, Jonah, you might have something there.
But, it is UUP to DUP transfers which may not be great. Would they not be more likely to go to Hatch who’s been eliminated?
Thanks Pól, I thought I was going mad there for a moment.
It’s a great pity, would be one of the biggest stories of the election if we nicked a second in such a unionist stronghold.
Jonah,
he does have a 1,200 surplus. Also, I forgot that the eliminated candidates are also taken out of the equation so if the UUP vote down the card Ward won’t make.
I retract and now am going with he will fail to make it.
‘I forgot that the eliminated candidates are also taken out of the equation so if the UUP vote down the card Ward won’t make.’
Are they? Oh, bugger!
and why does it take so long on these last counts ?
Sammy Morse reckons it slightly favours Ward, but it will be a tight squeek. There should be four Unionist Quotas here. If Ward does get through the middle it will be because of too great a disconnect in transfers between Unionist parties.
I would not fancy Nationalists holding three next time out. Nor Dolores’ chances of holding the line for the SDLP, since Ward nicely segments the constituency.
Gardiner does NOT have a surplus to distribute. His above-the-quota-total comes from Hatch’s transfers. Surplus is only distributed from a candidate’s 1st preference votes above the quota.
Anon is wrong – surpluses are distributed whether they come from 1st prefs or not – just check the West Belfast result for proof.
I think Ward looks less than 50/50 but it’ll be a major blow for Unionists if they lose there. Indeed the loss of that seat, together with a possible SDLP hold in South Antrim would leave Unionism on 54 assembly seats, which would be the first time in the history of the state that they’ve failed to win a majority.
Dewi the later counts take longer cos there are larger batches of votes to redistribute.
Anon,
Really?!?!
That’s bizarre and not the way done down here in Mexico.
If that’s the case, and it’s the first I heard of it, then Ward should sneak it and I’ll buy him a pint to celebrate.
In the absence of him, I’ll drink the pint, but I’ll be thinking of him at the same time.
Valenciano
Hatch’s elimination means that his votes went to Gardner, and some onto Savage, and wherever else they went. Thus Gardiner’s above-the-quota-total is not HIS surplus to be distributed, they are Hatch’s votes which as I say have already been distributed.
Is that not right?
Ya sure would miss all the fun if it was all done electronically would ya. With the press of a button the result would be on the screen. No fun at all!!
if it was all done electronically would ya
Should read would’nt ya
Hmmm…
If SF get this seat, they’ll hold it. As to whether the SDLP holds theire, that’s another question.
The nationalist vote here has been ust under 39%, with some transfers from Green and APNI. Next time round the nationalist vote will be 40% on its own.
SF next time will balance better, probably 13.5/12.5. SDLP will run one candidate only – if they can hold the 12.7 they’ve gotten here, they’re safe. Transfers will push that to 13.5.
Three nationalists just sub-quota will hold in this most fractious of unionist areas.
Anon, I’ve checked and I don’t think you’re right.
Votes can be transferred right down the line. I remember an election down here where the same packet of votes elected three different candidates as the surpluses went wandering.
Anon – I think they must be redistibuted – that’s why u have to put down so many preferences on the ballot paper.
I stand corrected. How bloody confusing! But surely they won’t transfer as a full vote – just a percentage?
I thought they transfered second preferences and if that was enough to bring someone over the line then they moved on and transfered the third, etc.
The UTV website states that Peter Munce of the UUP has been elected in Foyle but the BBC site shows him eliminated. Can anyone enlighten as to the true picture?
Eliminated surely.
McCrum eliminated with 3438
Ward on 4717
Moutray (DUP)4692
Savage (UUP)3143
Tranfers from McCrum and Gardiner’s surplus of 1138 still to play out. Close for SF but not close enough
That was my thought too Yokel but then UTV are noted for their atrocious spelling.
Most of Gardiner’s surplus will go to his UUP running mate Savage. At most this would make his total 4281. This is less than Wards 4717. Next eliminated is likely to be McCrum DUP. Most of his votes will go to his DUP running mate Moutray. Savage will be eliminated and Ward and Moutray elected as they are the last two.
Hold on, McCrum would need to transfer just 500 votes to Savage to get ahead of Ward.
Secondly, assuming that most of McCrums goes to Moutray (well over 7000 votes) to take him over the line won’t he have a final surplus to distribute before elimination of Savage?
latest is
Moutray (DUP)4732
Ward 4718
Savage (UUP)4207
Drum eliminated
That is a total of over 7000 votes not 7000 votes to transfer.
whoops McCrum , must be the poetry
To me the SDLP/Deehan look to be in trouble in West Tyrone – only 54 votes ahead of Deeny on the fifth count with the eliminated Hussey’s transfers to come. These should be sufficient to elect the 2 DUPper’s and also favour Deeny. Anyone agree?
Mow I’m lost Markieicz – surely Gardiner’s surplus should have been distributed in count 10 ? didn’t he get elected count 9 ?
Markievicz,
After the 10th count there are 12400 unionist votes in the mix and Sinn Fein is on 4700 odd.
McCrum is going to be eliminated on 3469. 1400 goes to Moutray to get him over the quota.
That leaves approximately 2000 votes left. Savage needs 525 to overhaul Sinn Fein. Any preferences on these votes do not matter – if Savage has a higher preference than Sinn Fein (presumably any preference here) he has it.
The upshot is 25% of DUP voters have to have voted all the way down the ticket to number 5 or 6 to get him in.
Someone can correct me if my analysis is wrong.
Looks to me like 90% certain of UUP seat.
Good grief this is complicated! Who on Earth invented STV?
Pol
Yes you may br right. Moutray’s suplus may make the difference