Alliance to burst through middle in South Belfast?
Well, it turns out that the Alliance’s candidate for the next Assembly election in south Belfast is Anna Lo, currently Chief Executive of the Chinese Welfare Association. It is a bit of a coup for a party that has consistently found itself outside the unionist/nationalist carve up at Stormont. If elected, she would be the only Chinese member of legislative Assembly in the UK. A classic match for one of Northern Ireland’s most diverse constituencies.The Chinese population in Northern Ireland are by far the largest single ethnic minority. According to the CWA:
Currently there are around 8000 Chinese resident in Northern Ireland, representing 51% of the total ethnic minority population. The Chinese community is currently the largest and most dispersed ethnic minority group living in the North. The majority of this community lives in the Greater Belfast Urban Area; there are also significant numbers in Craigavon, Lisburn, Newtownabbey and North Down. Irwin and Dunn, noted in their study of ethnic minorities, that the Chinese community is growing at a faster rate than the general population.
Undoubtedly the quality and profile of the candidate that will draw votes in from right across the community in South Belfast. It would be hard to bet against her taking the seat.
Figures last time out were:
UUP 8,469 (27.0%, +3.6%) 2 seats
SDLP 7,176 (22.9%, +1.2%) 2 seats
DUP 6,529 (20.8%, +6.7%) 1 seat
SF 3,933 (12.6%, +6.2%) 1 seat
NIWC 2,150 (6.9%, -2.7%) Best result for NIWC in Northern Ireland
Alliance 1,849 (5.9%, -4.1%)
With a total of valid votes 31,330 the quota stood at 4,476. As well as the Alliance vote, she might expect to take the lion’s share of the Womens’ Coalition are not standing this time. More recently, the Local Government election figures from last year show the usual consolidation of Alliance at the local level. But also their potential to get a good candidate pretty close to the quota first time out:
SDLP 8,538.5 (26.9%)
DUP 8,057.8 (25.4%)
UUP 6,250.5 (19.7%)
Alliance 4,045.6 (12.8%)
Sinn Fein 3,274.7 (10.3%)
Independents 425.8 (1.3%)
PUP 385.3 (1.2%)
Green 369.0 (1.2%)
Socialist Party (229.3 0.7%)
WP 142.0 (0.4%)
Lo could take votes from right across the piste, but she could also unlock a substantial ethnic minority vote, who traditionally have been reluctant to get involved in a set of political arguments that by and large treat their social and economic interests as something of an afterthought.
On the face of it, this is not (contrary to Seamus McKee’s line of questioning on Good Morning Ulster this morning) a gimmick. It puts considerable (and much unwanted) pressure on the second candidates from the both UUs and the SDLP, each of whom were always going to struggle this time out.
In the case of Esmond Birnie, the DUP were already biting at his heels, and the party’s capacity to manage the vote in this constituency seems virtually non-existent. The direct loser is likely to be the SDLP, although it is less than clear which of Alisdair McDonnell or Carmel Hanna would take the fall.
Alliance may end up chalking this up as a gain. But they will need a few more gifted candidate choices (and a bit of luck), if they are to fight their way out of their own tight spots elsewhere.
“Rory, the reason you hate the Alliance Party is because you don’t understand it. You like your politicians “dirtyâ€, and presumably sectarian. I guess that keeps it simple for you.”
Maybe he just likes them with a clue, and some kind of connection to reality.
“As McBurney notes S Belfast UUP seems intent on giving up one of its seats to whomsoever else wants it. What can a party with considerably less than two quotas expect to achieve by running three candidates?”
A mass suicide pact?
You have to remember the UUP’s sense of grandeur. It has never understood why its support has been in free-fall over the last decade. So it still believes that people will come to their senses and vote for it again.
In particular the South Belfast UUP has a taste for political suicide having selected the graceless and unpleasant Michael McGimpsey to try and succeed the well-liked Martin Smyth. The result – as I predicted on Slugger on the thread when Martin announced his retirement in 2005 – would be an SDLP victory.
IJP – i only raise the point about whether or not Anna Lo vites Alliance, is an Alliance member etc because it is relevant. just because she turned up at various Alliance events doesnt mean she has a political affinity. That was part of her job. didn’t she praise Alex Maskey’s anti racism initiative when he was Lord Mayor? that doesn’t make her a Shinner.
Alliance is going down a different road. Pursuing someone from the rates campaign, pursuing Anna Lo. It’s a new tactic which speaks volumes to the dearth of ability on the ground. If i was an Alliance supporter (ho ho) i would be uncomfortable. Does she even know what Alliance policies are on all the issues? is Alliance going to seek votes based on its manifesto or on the colour of Anna Lo’s skin. And judging by the distasteful wording of yesterday’s news release, i would not be hopeful.
Mick
Your analysis is very interesting and credible. However you start to lose a bit of credibilty when you mis-spell Alasdair McDonnell’s name (don’t worry a lot of people do!!), and suggest there’s a possibility that either he or Carmel Hanna would take the fall, if Anna Lo were to win a South Belfast seat.
Yes maybe Carmel (although even that’s unlikely) – But Alastair? : He’s the MP & will have realistic ambitions of easily topping the poll!
‘Catch yourself on’, as they say in Ulster!!
I would guess that is the more likely way it would fall out, particularly since he’s reportedly been working hard on the ground since last year’s Westminster election…
If Lo is successful, then it is likely that one of the two nationalist parties will get squeezed… If McDonnell’s work pays off they might just squeeze Maskey enough on the margins to push him out… But if he can galvanise his support again in the Markets/Lower Ormeau, then I suppose Hannah is first in the firing line… Sinn Fein’s Westminster vote when up on 2001 last year, but there was a drop on the percentage vote from 2003.
If there is likely to be any of the negative effect on Sinn Fein’s vote that Francie Brolly was speculating on, this could be one of the few places it could make an actual difference.
My spelling generally has improved since the improvement in the quality/usability of my spell checker… Unfortunately Alasdair’s name is not included… ho hum…
Southbelfast, usually when you promote multi-culturalism and press for equality of citizenship, human rights and justice without applying a boundary bias, you tend to find that this political culture attracts a diversity of activists.
Therefore, such people usually wish to work to promote the furtherance of these aims and Ms Lo has decided to join Alliance to do this, despite comments of your kind, which are misleading and your assumptions blow in the face of correct public opinion.
IJP
Sorry for delay in response I can only comment when I connect into server back at base camp. Its bright and early pre breakfast where I am at present.
Insular in the sense it is an NI party. However when parties start to form links outside the place they are going to branded by the link as Nationalist or Unionist. Difficult problem.
I can’t vote for or against the party that is likely to govern this place. The Alliance party isn’t even the Lib Dems and it is most certainly not the PDs. It is a NI party as though the place was an entity onto itself, self governing and answerable to no one else. The politics of the place are utterly bizarre. You would think that the SDLP would have merged with someone in the South long ago given their objectives, that Unionists would vote Conservative or Labour as they want to be British, but no we are in the realm of insular politics a fairy tale land and Alliance are stuck there with the rest of them (except SF).
With regard Alliance generally, it is in slow and unremitting decline. It needs to ask why. It has a severe image problem. Rightly or wrongly think Alliance and you think, middle class, comfortable and smug. You don’t get a felling of a clear vision or a burning passion to change this place. I would also imagine that it has limited resources and insufficient activists in most constituencies to fight effective campaigns and to build the base between elections. It also lacks any charisma whatsoever. David Ford may have many attributes, but passion and charisma just aren’t there and it is actually difficult to think who the leading lights in the Alliance actually are and that in itself is an indictment. In my opinion the party is terminally ill. A slow but unremitting death is its future.
Smithsonian.
As with IJP sorry for delay on business out East.
How do you think the type of progress you wish for can be more easily achieved?
A few tentative suggestions
1) A completely new party,
2) The restructuring of an existing party,
3) A combination of two or more existing parties,
4) Voting for local flavours of national parties
5) Not voting at all
Now that is a real conundrum. I think the answer lies in either, or a combination of 2 & 3, but for that to happen the existing parties need to realise there is a problem in the first place.
If you form a new group you further fragment a small pool of potential support and you would need people of real calibre at the top to make it move. Won’t happen; at best you would end up with a 5 day wonder like the Woman’s Coalition.
I think you would need a concordat between the smaller groupings (and Alliance is a smaller party) to fight a campaign on shared values, Liberal Economics, Environmentally sound, and commitment to look after the poor and needy. It would need to be an agreement that would last beyond the election. Unfortunately to be effective it would take some exceedingly difficult decisions, like standing aside in some good constituencies for support elsewhere. Very very difficult for any party to do, but it would give those in the Alliance, Greens and the various Labour groupings a clear idea of just how difficult the changes within SF actually are. If it doesn’t happen I would see Alliance holding East Antrim, probably North Down and East Belfast, possibly gaining South Belfast but losing South Antrim, Strangford and South Antrim. Greens etc gain nothing. With an agreement all those seats could be held by one of the parties plus very strong showings in places like South Down, North Antrim and North Belfast. You could turn the tide and build for the next election.
Won’t happen because the Alliance (like headless chicken) don’t realise yet that they are dead, Greens think they are on the up and I have long given up on the various Labour groupings. Also any such agreement usually takes time and the election is fast approaching. It is sad because, if you include those who were in the Woman’s Coalition, there is quite a body of potential activists out there looking for a home and some hope.
In many ways the biggest failure in NI politics is the parties that represent the middle ground. That electorate has been hopelessly represented and grossly under represented. The blame for that must lie with the parties that seek that mandate and prime among those is Alliance. Alliance is a failed project in my opinion.
Has anyone heard the rumour that Hermon will stand for UUP in North Down and if so what will that do?
Pete which of my comments are misleading? whether or not my comments blow (sic) in the face of public opinion i guess time will tell.
no-one from camp alliance has yet answered my question:
when did she join? is she indeed a member? does she have any idea what the ‘policies’ of the Alliance party are?
fair questions.
Mick
Bases on the two 2005 elections the SDLP at 27% & 32% against SF’s 9% & 10% must look good to hold 2 seats. Surely the last seat will be between SF and Alliance (6% & 13%). The edge must be with Alliance this time, perhaps with UUP transfers. That’s assuming Alliance can mount an effective local campaign in the constituency, and as you say any shredding of SF support will be fatal. I am also assuming the DUP take 2 seats this time round.
Alliance probably could link into Lib Dems quite well; they have the same sort of image.
Crat,
I agree a coalition of the sensible middle is necessary in certain places, but that it is also very difficult, not least because of the need to still be seen as existing on the ground. I think though the demand for any liberal economic policy is a mistake, and liable to cause alienation of potential supporters. Apart from the Alliance, the biggest and best organised of the smaller groups in numbers of members and active supporters though not in votes is The WP which could not sign up to that. Nor I imagine would the smaller labour groups.
Alliance clearly has massive problems, having shed many of its most talented people to a combination of (sometimes disappointed) ambition, personal animosity and exhaustion. The quality of its public representatives seems to me to be in great decline. Compare Ford to Napier or Cushnihan or even Alderice. It is screwed I think, but there is still enough space for it to hold some seats. I’m not sure that the smaller groups have enough votes to make any difference at Assembly level, but maybe at council level. Though not in the super councils. Which is probably one of the points of the reorganisation anyway. Nevertheless it is vital that the alternative viewpoint continues to be put forward.
Overall then, as Antonio Gramsci put it, pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Smithsonian “…or maybe you have other ideasâ€
Many of the problems we have with political parties here are rooted at a much more basic and fundamental level. In brief:-
Party Finance
Present financing arrangements are corrupting the political system. Required:-
a.Self financing i.e. no public funding,
b.Limiting personal donations to £100 per year, and
c.Member fees / donations only source of income.
Membership
Low party membership is creating an incestuous political elite divorced from the electorate. Required:-
a.The building of party membership, through
b.Establishing an ongoing properly accountable relationship with the electorate and membership, and
c.Election promises which can be audited and reasonably fulfilled.
Organisation
Many parties are both intentionally and otherwise badly organised at national and local level. Required:-
a.Real democratic governance,
b.Good management practice, and
c.Evident transparency.
Southbelfast you stated:
“Does she even know what Alliance policies are on all the issues? is Alliance going to seek votes based on its manifesto or on the colour of Anna Lo’s skin. And judging by the distasteful wording of yesterday’s news release, i would not be hopeful.”
You had made enquiries as to Anna Lo’s intelligence over Alliance policy, then answered you’re own questions by making a negative assumption.
As far as most people’s opinion goes, if it is her conviction to stand in an attempt to promote initiatives in relation to anti-racism and anti-sectarianism, then good on her and good luck to her come election.
You, however, seem very intent on raising barriers for members of the ethnic community who would wish to participate in local politics and at their own desire.
Crataegus
As usual you mirror my own thinking.
A restructuring of an existing party gives the necessary core vote to ensure some influence. Some form of electoral pact for mutual advantage gives the opportunity to reach across certain boundaries without alienating core voters.
I agree that such an eventuality presents many difficulties. The results of the next Assembly election may well force a fundamental rethink and perhaps a realignment but by then it may be too late for some.
Way Icit
Correct assessment of the problem but no realistic prospect of change. Parties in power tend not to change the rules to suit their opponents.
Comrade Stalin
The Alliance project is deemed a failure because after 30 plus years Alliance manages less than 5% of the vote and despite the apparent appetite from some quarters for a new political dispensation nobody is yelling Alliance. I concur with Crataegus and Garibaldy.
To answer Southbelfastnewman – Anna Lo speaking on Radio Ulster when it was announced said she had been approached by the Alliance Party last week to stand for them in South Belfast and according to my contacts she was never a member of the Alliance Party but may have voted for them, I am sure they would have selected Gerry Rice if she had been well enough to stand. There will be plenty of long standing members in South Belfast Assoc who will be angry at been walked over. Long service and loyalty does not always be a criteria for selection.
“If McDonnell’s work pays off they might just squeeze Maskey enough on the margins to push him out… But if he can galvanise his support again in the Markets/Lower Ormeau, then I suppose Hannah is first in the firing line”
He’ll have to persuade his supporters to stop knifing each other to do that….
On the Alliance, they can play the long game – increases in immigration and mixed-marriages (and their children) can only increase their voting base. As long as they can persude them to vote.
kensei:
Maybe he just likes them with a clue, and some kind of connection to reality.
I wonder what would have happened if Martin Luther King had decided to keep his feet on the ground, stick with reality and accept the status of black people as second class citizens.
Watchman:
In particular the South Belfast UUP has a taste for political suicide having selected the graceless and unpleasant Michael McGimpsey to try and succeed the well-liked Martin Smyth.
Ah yes, the well-liked Martin Smyth. I remember him well in 1995, when loyalist paramilitaries distributed leaflets to houses around the Donegall Road telling “fenians” to get out or else. ‘ol Smyth described the whole thing as “understandable”. Yup, a regular man of the cloth right there. Why do men calling themselves unionists, who apologize for paramilitaries, find themselves so well rewarded at the ballot box ? Answers on a postcard to I. Vissarionovich, The Kremlin, Moscow. A free vial of polonium-210 and a slightly marked Order of Lenin badge to the first winning entry.
southbelfastman:
That was part of her job. didn’t she praise Alex Maskey’s anti racism initiative when he was Lord Mayor? that doesn’t make her a Shinner.
What makes her not a Shinner is the fact that she is standing for Alliance, and not Sinn Fein. Maskey did some good stuff it has to be said. Right enough, Maskey was only the Lord Mayor because Alliance were there to vote him in, a fact which those who dismiss the party as a unionist monolith conveniently forget.
Smithsonian :
The Alliance project is deemed a failure because after 30 plus years Alliance manages less than 5% of the vote and despite the apparent appetite from some quarters for a new political dispensation nobody is yelling Alliance.
I disagree – people are yelling Alliance. But they’re not *voting* Alliance – that’s the fundamental problem. Back in the good old daze in the late 70s, the party polled more than the DUP and Sinn Fein at that time, garnering nearly 15% of the vote at one point. Do you reckon those votes just disappeared and those people went back to voting for the older, tribal ideas ? I don’t believe it. There’s nothing wrong with the ideas – it’s mobilizing the support base that’s the problem. Back in Sovnarkom we had rather more direct ways of achieving this, but these methods are somewhat outdated in this day and age.
SBN
I’d nothing against you raising it, which is why I answered your points.
Turning up regularly at a particular party’s social events is obviously more relevant that supporting an initiative that happens to be sponsored by a Lord Mayor. As well you know.
I don’t understand the rest of your post. Anne and Anna are party members. Even if they weren’t, FF and FG have already “brought in” well-known members from outside for the forthcoming Dáil elections – are you suggested there’s a dearth of talent there and they’re both in freefall?
And of course, SF would never do such a thing…
CS,
I’d say that a lot of the children of those Alliance voters in the 1970s now vote for one of the big 4 parties, including those at the extreme end. This is one of the SDLP’s and UUP’s major problems – children of their supporters and even members voting for PSF and the DUP instead. The facts suggest that those votes have disappeared. Unfortunate, but it seems to be the case. Though clearly there is a bigger base to be mobilised, I doubt it’s 15%, particularly west of the Bann.
Crat
Essentially I feel Comrade Stalin has answered the points.
Alliance has problems. That’s why I joined it. That’s why I would urge people like you to join it. If you accept the basic premise, then come join in and help change the image. It’s a democratic party!
I should add, wearing my analyst hat, that although accepting Alliance has problems, I think they are as nothing compared to those of the SDLP or, particularly, the Ulster Unionists. It is quite obvious where Alliance can go if it gets it right, not so for the others.
Crat
Sorry, to come back on your “insularity” point. I disagree, in fact.
Firstly, NI is a unique place with a unique political system. Any party which has come in and attempted to ignore that has soon disappeared. That is why Alliance, like all the Assembly parties, is NI-centric.
Secondly, part of the reason NI is an inward-looking place is that the parties are inward-looking. That is why Alliance, alongside only the SDLP, is pro-European and active at European and international level. Remind me, who is the current President of Liberal International?!
Thirdly, for reference, the party’s youth wing has rejoined European Liberal Youth – I’m not seeking medals for this, but I paid the membership out of my own pocket immediately to enable it to do so (just to prove how seriously I take the links). We expect to send a delegation of 5 (as many as any other organization in Europe, and bear in mind most youth wings are state-funded) to Berlin for the next European Liberal Youth Conference. We have sent a delegate at the current Liberal International Youth conference in Andorra and intend to join next year.
What does this prove?
- there’s a good reason for NI parties to be NI-centric to some extent;
- however, international links are important;
- Alliance is a significant player internationally, particularly (growingly so) at youth level.
So I don’t agree that Alliance is “insular”, far from it. But it is realistic!
There’s nothing too insular about an Alliance association selecting a representive of the Chinese community to run in south Belfast.
Crat you had mentioned:
“The politics of the place are utterly bizarre. You would think that the SDLP would have merged with someone in the South long ago given their objectives, that Unionists would vote Conservative or Labour as they want to be British, but no we are in the realm of insular politics a fairy tale land and Alliance are stuck there with the rest of them (except SF).”
The problem is this, in particular relation to Conservatives, then Labour and so forth that, these parties function on the back of a mature democracy with policy formed cognisant of the rule of law and such crown legislation.
In today’s Northern Ireland, we are still fumbling over this issue and national politics would flounder because of the necessity of having an unquestionable political system like this as a pre-requisite.
Furthermore, in regards to parties attempting to set up, the Tories have made such moves but have, if I am correct, been shot-up in the past for doing so too keenly. Therefore, I suspect other Irish parties were wary of pretty much the same kind of treatment. In saying that, Irish parties were probably wary of also being tainted by becoming involved with ethno/cultural/sectarian politics in Northern Ireland, which may have proved too hot for their vital southern electorate.
Interesting that SF has apparently been the only party to make progress under such precarious conditions.
Alliance would seem to have been working for a stable democracy and supports the advancement of lawfulness. May be one day non-sectarian politics will thrive, perhaps from March onwards?
Garibaldy
Concordats are difficult at the best of times, but in NI they just won’t happen. Weigh up Alliance attitudes, they approach such things with the attitude of the BORG. Resistance is futile you must be assimilated and on 4-5% of the vote the arrogance is laughable.
The Workers Party, you hopeless romantic. Alliance may be at death’s door, but raising the WP would be like raising Lazareth. I am fairly easy going on economics, a lot of the free market twaddle resembles a religious faith. However you do need to encourage business and enterprise and try to ensure everyone has better access to opportunity. I can hack COOPs and state owned services as long as they are run like businesses and the state stays well out of it and they run efficiently. Water Service etc should not be given to any private sector monopoly. As for the novel new way of funding schools and hospitals utter insanity!
The problem with a concordat, is it would require compromise and from what I have seen there is little sign that that will happen with any of the groups that spring to mind. The pure doctrine on whatever core values any of the groups actually have is more important than breaking the hold of the political parasites who feed on fear and division.
I agree with your assessment of the Alliance party and its depleting resource base. However if there was an agreement it is not the votes that each would bring that is important but the people and getting enough active people in sufficient areas to make some sort of impact is crucial. Equally importantly you give some hope and an idea that progress can be made. In the European Election there was some semblance of an attempt and perhaps it could be more successful if concentrated into targeted areas rather than scattered across NI?
Alliance was very lucky in the last election and in the next they could lose 50% of their seats. With the new ‘super’ councils their base will shrink further. How small does it have to become before they realise the seriousness of the problem?
Comrade
But they’re not *voting* Alliance – that’s the fundamental problem. Back in the good old daze in the late 70s, the party polled more than the DUP and Sinn Fein at that time, garnering nearly 15% of the vote at one point. Do you reckon those votes just disappeared and those people went back to voting for the older, tribal ideas ? I don’t believe it. There’s nothing wrong with the ideas – it’s mobilizing the support base that’s the problem.
I agree that there is a big problem mobilising the support, but do you not think that perhaps the content of what’s on offer may need a serious make over?
IJP
Scotland and Wales are no less unique than NI and yet seem to have a more credible selection on offer. If I lived in either I would have the choice of the Lib-Dems, Labour and the Conservatives as well as the local Nationalists, Greens and perhaps the BNP! I personally don’t find NI-centric parties appealing. I could understand it better if they were advocating an independent state!
I am glad to hear that young Alliance are doing all sorts of things and Alliance support the European Union as do I, and your Lordship is president etc but can’t you see there is no sense of vision coming from Alliance, no sense of purpose. If there is a purpose and vision it’s not getting through to the likes of me. I will be spent a good proportion of next year abroad. Perhaps it is because I don’t feel much attachment to NI but from my perspective it is an appallingly insular and inwardly looking place.
Pete
If you consider selecting a local person who happens to be from the Chinese community a major advance, it is indeed a sad situation. Alliance need to reconsider their message, put forward a cohesive vision and deliver it effectively. I don’t think there are the resources or skills available to do it effectively. I hope I am wrong and I hope you win in South Belfast.
The problem is this, in particular relation to Conservatives, then Labour and so forth that, these parties function on the back of a mature democracy with policy formed cognisant of the rule of law and such crown legislation.
It is not that I entirely disagree with your argument, but there is a good argument that goes that part of the problem is that these parties are not organising effectively and are thus creating a vacuum. Of course there is the problem that many in England simply want rid of the place.
Given the SDLP’s aims I would think that belonging to a 32 county party a more honest position and one that would appeal to their potential electorate. The problem would be who to merge with and as you say would anyone in the South want them.
I don’t see that instability of necessity means you have to have insularity. An all Ireland approach worked for SF, why not the SDLP. In reverse why should Unionists not vote for Labour or the Conservatives unless of course they don’t really see themselves as British?
Crat,
I agree that other groups are even worse off than Aliiance. I was just making the point that the groups outside the mainstream are so small that picking a divisive policy on anything, be it economics or anything else, is to needlessly divide a number of groups that can unite on the rejection of sectarian politics. I agree that the European election offers a model, producing a fairly successful coalition campaign. I also agree it needs to be targeted in certain areas. Preferably outside Belfast where the least work can have the biggest effect in council elections. We’ll see if it can be worked out. I’m not spectacularly hopeful either.
IJP
Sorry IJP but I can’t agree with you. These days the party leader plays a huge part in voter impressions about the party as a whole.
Mark Durkain is making a decent fist of things. David Ford whatever his personal qualities is not. Reg Empey falls somewhere in between, but has a core vote to sustain him whilst the new political dispensation emerges.
CS
The ballot box is where it matters, if you don’t vote, then you don’t count. Although, Alliance have an opportunity, they need to mobilise on a grand scale and they lack the personalities, the infrastructure and the credibility to do so.
Garibaldy hit the nail on the head.
“Ms Lo is of Cantonese background”
wor ai ni!
“Rory, the reason you hate the Alliance Party is because you don’t understand it. You like your politicians “dirtyâ€, and presumably sectarian
You forgot to add, Kensei that I also expect them to be able to hold their liquor and be able to dance a polka without falling over.
But hate the Alliance? That is a bit strong. I cannot remember ever feeling hate for anyone or anything. I know that we are admonished to “hate the sin, but love the sinner”, but quite honestly I tend to enjoy most sins far too much to follow that code. I do remember a period over ten years ago however when I was strongly tempted to strangle Whitney Houston after being assaulted by the constant repitition of her execrably murderous rendition of the lovely Dolly Parton’s song I Will Always Love You on the office radio. Does that count?
Incidentally, all political parties are by definition sectarian in that they put the interests of their own political sect before those of any opposing political sect, and that, apart from their lack of any coherent political programme, is why I dismiss Alliance.
Garibaldy:
I’d say that a lot of the children of those Alliance voters in the 1970s now vote for one of the big 4 parties, including those at the extreme end.
It would take some kind of analysis of the demographics and voter turnout to say whether that was true or not.
The ongoing sectarianisation of politics, where extremism and tribalism has become more acceptable, hasn’t helped. That is the area where perhaps Alliance has failed, but can succeed again if it can get people on board. This idea of government-by-cockfight between the two largest parties at either extreme is clearly not going to work.
Rory:
Incidentally, all political parties are by definition sectarian in that they put the interests of their own political sect before those of any opposing political sect, and that, apart from their lack of any coherent political programme, is why I dismiss Alliance.
Yeah, but you’re a jaded old trotskyist. I’d have dismissed your point of view if I hadn’t dozed off while reading it.
Crat:
I agree that there is a big problem mobilising the support, but do you not think that perhaps the content of what’s on offer may need a serious make over?
Say you were the Alliance leader and had a free hand to make sweeping changes in the policy and the message. What would you do ?
Personally I think the ideas – do away with the tribal society and share power with weighted majorities, with plenty of constitutional checks and balances built in – are fine but it’s persuading people that they are the right ones which is hard. Alliance is never going to win 100%, 90% or 50% of the vote. But I think 20% is a sensible stretch target, which the party could hit if it were able to get the message across. Actually doing that is a hell of a lot easier said than done.
As I have said before on Slugger, Alliance’s ideas seem to be subject to more scrutiny and criticism than anothers. That’s fair enough, in politics you have to be able to take a slagging. But people are always saying “nobody knows what Alliance stand for”, yet they don’t say that about the SDLP or UUP – I have no idea where the hell either of those parties stand at the minute, lurching frantically between snippets of extremism broken up by periods of bland tribal banality. Of course, I do know where SF and the DUP stand – but their idea of how to run the country (two sectarian high priests presiding over a carved up tribal government between crazy extremes who can’t even talk to each other) is so much Emperor’s New Clothes – there is just no way in hell it is going to work. If there’s a referendum for that crock of shit I’ll be voting “no” right down the line.
What I’d love to see would be a coalition of pragmatists – Alliance, SDLP and UUP co-operating to form a united front against the nutters, perhaps acting as a brake on their extremism or forcing them to play ball. Of course, that would require the SDLP and UUP to actually put their money where their mouth is and start being pragmatic. The SDLP and UUP have the problem in that what is currently being implemented is what they tried to make work themselves. It’s hard to stand up and admit that you were wrong.
CS,
True on the analysis. And perhaps I might have said grandchildren as well as children. Also true on government by cockfight. But I’m not entirely convinced that’s what we’re going to get. I think there’s a lot of trying to look tough in order to make the compromises that follow taste better. This isn’t the case with the DUP rednecks, but I doubt there as powerful as some people like to make out. I’d be astonished if they tried to mount some kind of electoral challenge against DUP policy the way Jeffrey and others did with the UUP. I’d say they’d get outmanoeuvred in the DUP and except for a few places humiliated at the ballot box.
CS,
In fairness to Rory, he’s not a trotskyist from my memories of his comments on the USSR.
The problem with hoping for a UUP/SDLP front is that they’re every bit as locked into tribal politics as the DUP and Provos. They are fundamentally a shower of sectarian so and sos despite some sensible members in each.
Garibaldy
We’ll see if it can be worked out. I’m not spectacularly hopeful either.
We can all live in hope, but in the last Euro the Greens and the SEA did solo flights, heaven only knows why. So if some of them can’t cooperate in an election that they can’t possibly win what chance the deluded fools will see sense in one they think they have an outside chance in?
The way I view it; the parties of the centre have a responsibility to put up a credible alternative. It is an appalling indictment on the Alliance Party that they have managed a decrease in support from 15% to 4-5%. They once had 70 councillors which is a good base. In my opinion that vote is still there and could possibly be increased, it is all about people seeing you as the credibly alternative to keeping out the likes of the DUP and SF. It is about having enough people in a constituency to get out between elections and meet the electorate and build up a base of support.
I often wonder what the membership of some of these parties actually is, Alliance say 1200 perhaps 1500? Greens, WP etc I would doubt if any of them had a membership above say 250. The SEA and the likes 1 high priest and two dozen acolytes. Of those memberships how many are active, 1 in 10, perhaps less? Also the activists are probably scattered and not where you would ideally want them. Come the next election few of these groups will have more than 5-6 people (if that) in any constituency willing to help, between elections you will be back to one man and a dog. None of them are credible and no one with any ability (unless they are idealists like McCann) are going to waste their life with such tenuous hope for success. You can’t run a party on good will, you need credible numbers elected and the resources and power that brings. Can any of these parties afford the conceit of ideological purity?
Smithsonian
Agree with your comments on the Alliance and their leadership. In any case I doubt if he will survive the next election. However I pity David Ford for what exactly is he leader of? I have no doubt he is doing his best, and that it is a considerable commitment that he is making but often I wonder what sort of support he gets from the rest of the party?
Comrade
Alliance has failed, but can succeed again if it can get people on board.
Sorry that is just not good enough, what Alliance need to ask is why would anyone come on board, what do we need to do to attract more people, what exactly are we doing right and what are we doing wrong. For the life of me I couldn’t bring to mind any Alliance spokesperson on any subject. Few of your people are making blows that hit any target whatsoever, they may as well be in a parallel universe. When the press and government ignore you is it their fault or yours? You lack the big idea, you lack a vision, you lack good communicators and you just don’t have adequate resources and worse no sense of direction.
Crat,
Agree on the foolishness of the Greens and the SEA, although of course the SWP was trying to exploit the SEA as a recruiting front. And what we’ve been discovering in the past number of years is that many politicians of the centre have shown themselves to be motivated less by a concern for society than they would have us believe and more by ego and greed for money, status and position. Which helps explain the decline in quality of Alliance (and in fact SDLP and UUP representatives), as well as the middle classes retreating still further into the benefits of the boom in house prices and away from politics.
As for the centre vote, I really do think it’s been heavily squeezed since the forum elections in 1996. The success of the women’s and labour coalitions turned out to be disastrous as they both wasted important opportunities to cement the position of the centre due to their disparate and opportunistic nature. At the same time, the parades issue has further polarised society, contributing to the delcine in Alliance’s vote in the sense that the replacement voters have been sucked in traditional politics.
I also come back to my point about voting habits – Alliance and the other centre parties have disappeared off the radar of many voters, including lots of young voters, so I’m not sure that the potential vote is as large as 15%.
As for Alliance’s lack of vision and connected problems, I couldn’t agree more. The question of active members is also important. Those groups with a more commited membership do not necessarily get the votes. Some combination of the two is essential, as is clever targetting of the right areas. Better to mobilise a realtively small number of people from several organisations for a campaign in a small area in say county Tyrone where they can have a big impact on a council election than waste everybody’s time trying to win unwinnable seats in Belfast. Is there an Assembly seat somewhere for the Euro candidate? I doubt it at the minute, but there’s certainly a council seat.
Tut, tut, Comrade Stalin. Old and jaded I certainly am but a trotskyist? Such ingratitude. I am almost tempted to have the parlourmaid blow out the votive candles I keep burning perpetually before your image in my study.
I think I’ll just spend the next week referring to a certain town by its old name of Tsaritsin just to annoy you now. But don’t worry, I’m not one to harbour grudges and I’ll put a bunch of fresh snowdrops at the shrine for Christmas.
Garibaldy
The forum elections in 1996 were an unmitigated disaster. The Labour Group where an embarrassment, they completely blew it and ruined a good opportunity, they were an utter disgrace. The Woman’s Coalition should never have happened in the form it did. It was an ill considered opportunistic stunt, but its basic concept was flawed and it was doomed to decline. In hindsight it would probably have been better if those who were 11th and 12th had got in instead. (or in the case of Labour anybody else) From memory that would have been the WP and Greens. Even if you disagree with some of what they rant on about at least they would have had some ideological consistency and would have widened the perspective. The Woman’s Coalition was a double disaster because many able people were tied up in a cul-de-sac and are probably now totally disillusioned.
The Euro candidate should have a go for a seat and ask again for support. You would need to look at where his votes came from.
Agree on the need for targeting but Tyrone I would have thought would be really difficult, not least because of the distances to travel between settlements, the number of posters required and how posters seem to disappear ‘in the wind’ in rural areas! Real logistical problems, but you seem to know the area and potential better than I do.
I agree about voting habits but still think there is a possible 15% but it would require really good organisation and a lot of hype and PR and a hell of a lot of work preparing on the ground. The antics of SF and the DUP are not going down well with everyone and the UUP and SDLP are not gaining from it. In that environment there has to be a potential opening.
Anyway I have probably been too long in the sun, bedtime out here.
Crat,
Tyrone was picked pretty much at random except that in areas there or Fermanagh etc about 4-500 votes can secure a council seat. So a local candidate with a profile based on community work or something backed by a bit of money and campaigning support stands an excellent chance compared to places in Belfast where it takes 2-2,500 votes for a council seat.
I agree there are potential openings for growth of the broadly centre ground parties, added to by the incompetence of the big four. But Alliance will have to sort itself out in organisational terms. I don’t have much faith in the Greens myself (likely to gain uncommited votes but to be ineffective) but they are a potential basis for a council seat or two.
Tempted by a nap myself, but then again there’s the United-West Ham match.
Crat et al:
What has happened to the centre ground is partly that people were voting for negotiation. They did’t want their side to be screwed over by the other and they know that making progress under Tony Blair depended on negotiating strength. The new Executive, if it forms, is likely to create similar incentives, at least to begin with. Its possible that a centre ground will grow up but it would need to be willing to act tough, designate both nationalist and unionist, and not be frightened to rock the boat in the interests of the centre ground.
“I wonder what would have happened if Martin Luther King had decided to keep his feet on the ground, stick with reality and accept the status of black people as second class citizens.”
Martin Luther King didn’t ignore the reality on the ground, which is why there was mass marches, protests and the like, and he was also dealing with s situation where people where being kept apart by the state in an immoral fashion and their rights trod on, as opposed to choosing to be apart.
Being crazy enough to make that comparison make smy point.
Pete you said,
“You, however, seem very intent on raising barriers for members of the ethnic community who would wish to participate in local politics and at their own desire.”
you are entirely wrong on this. Rather than raise barriers against members of the ethnic community from participating in local politics at their own desire i would love to see a situation where all kinds of everyone fights in local politics, without a voice being raised or press release written which makes mention of his or her ethnic background. The Alliance Party chose to make this is an issue in selling a story on Friday based entirely on Anna Lo’s ethnic background.
If the old liberal language of everyone is equal actually meant something to Alliance then the colour of Anna’s skin wouldnt have been mentioned by Alliance. that is the point. it is they – and she – who raise the issue and the barrier.
When Paul Gupta stood for election in Newtownabbey a decade or more ago i cant recall the SDLP attemtping to make a virtue out of his background.
Unionism is essentially about Protestant supremacy whether in a pre-1870′s all-Ireland context or it’s later ‘Ulster’ form.
Perhaps that explains why so many unionist posters see republicanism as an expression of sectarianism, or make fatuous remarks that ‘everyone is sectarian’.
It’s as though the Jim Crow segregationists of the Old South were born again in modern unionism to hear their lies that Martin Luther King was ‘anti-white’ turned now to accusations that Sinn Fein is anti-minority. It can only be a matter of time before some redneck comes out with the ‘anti-Protestant’ slur.
Sadly the unionist understanding of racism is as partial as their understanding of sectarianism or democracy, or in the case of Alliance their understanding of powersharing.
Like their UUP and DUP fellowtravellers they prefered the UVF pre-ceasefire to the parties which were on ceasefire and actively seeking peaceful solutions. It seems fair that they be judged by their choice of friends
SBNM,
Obviously you musn’t think it is news worthy and that is your opinion, I don’t believe anyone is playing the issue up to be quite frank only those with an anti-ethnic agenda.
Alliance has a diverse membership and it will be likely that other historical scenarios of this nature arise. So, for posterity, it’s worth a mention. There’s always a first for something and if you’re trying to take that away then you’re argument is petty.
Martin Luther King didn’t ignore the reality on the ground,
Neither is Alliance. Rather, the party is trying to suggest that there needs to be a new reality. That is the point here; that the existing way that things are being done isn’t working.
which is why there was mass marches, protests and the like, and he was also dealing with s situation where people where being kept apart by the state in an immoral fashion and their rights trod on, as opposed to choosing to be apart.
That’s different from NI is it ? I’m wondering what all the violence over the past few decades was all about then ?
When Paul Gupta stood for election in Newtownabbey a decade or more ago i cant recall the SDLP attemtping to make a virtue out of his background.
Both the SDLP and the other parties quite proudly mention the backgrounds of people during discussion, especially if they’re Prods.
“Both the SDLP and the other parties quite proudly mention the backgrounds of people during discussion, especially if they’re Prod”
None so blatantly and smugly as Alliance representatives though.
Eileen Bell is particularly cringe worthy during the many, many occasions she drops into conversations and speeches that she did in fact lower herself to marry a protestant.
Don’t get me wrong, mixed marriages are always something positive but the way Eileen goes on about this so often can be uncomfortable. Plenty of people are in mixed marriages and they don’t go around telling everyone they meet so they can nod smugly and feel morally superior.
I think that is a big part of the Alliance Party’s problem, they do think that they are morally superior to everyone else and this brings with it and almost nauseating smugness which doesn’t make them relatable. The Alliance Party is grand in theory but in reality simply doesn’t work and this has been reflected over and over again at the Ballot box. They need a major overhaul of their ideas and approach.