Bertie’s difficulty, Sinn Fein’s opportunity…?
It’s a bit premature to be talking about long term consequences of a crisis that hasn’t quite caught full fire. But there is a certain lack of completeness in the Taoiseach’s explanation of the smaller amount he received for talking to a group of Manchester businessmen. At least one of the offline Dublin papers suggests that this may be the smoking gun. In which case, that work that the Sinn Fein ‘foot soldiers’ are putting in to a small but significant slice of FF’s voters, may just have found a useful dynamic to tip a significant chunk towards them.
Looks like the issue will still be in the news next week too, Mick.
Although I’m not convinced that those who recoil from FF over this would be vulnerable to overtures from SF..
Possibly true. Some FF voters would never vote FG and may instead vote for SF. For my part I will vote PD No.1 and FF down lower. Don’t feel right about voting 1st preference for a party with such an arguably compromised leader.
“Although I’m not convinced that those who recoil from FF over this would be vulnerable to overtures from SF..”
They might be when you consider much of the current SF vote is already former FF.
I’ll vote for a party that supports armed struggles and which is rumoured to be in close contact with all sorts of criminal activity because the party I currently vote for has people who take all sorts of unexpected payments.
Strange really don’t like the frying pan so will douse myself in petrol and jump into the fire.
There is the PDs, Labour, Socialists, Greens to choice from so why go from bad to potentially a lot worse.
Claims on politics.ie that the govt is to collapse tonight. http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?p=457523#457523
Brian
Possibly just Bertie? Can’t see an election being wise move for either FF or PD just now?
Crataegus FF can rule alone with the help of Independents.
Brian
If Bertie does walk the plank he will go up in my esteem.
The PD position is tricky given the endorsement, but I suppose they want to reinforce the perception of their monitoring role ahead of an election. Independents would want to show some relevance.
Interesting times we could be into a winter election.
Doubt that Crataegus. FF has 78-9 seats (they had 81 in 2002 but one is now the Ceann Comhairle (Dail speaker) while the other – Charlie McCreevy – resigned his seat and went to Brussels as EU Commissioner for the Internal Market. Beverly Flynn lost the FF Whip but votes with the govt. Niall Blaney is an Independent in Donegal Northwest but is about to join FF and his organisation is called “Independent Fianna Fail”. Jackie Healy-Rae is a TD for Kerry-South. Mildred Fox has an extremely precarious hold on her Wicklow seat and will not likely want an election. So that’s 4 Indos likely to prop up FF – enough for a majority of 1. Some of the other Independents are also from the FF “gene-pool” but have quarrelled with the govt on some issues. My bet is no election but rather a FF-minority govt at the mercy of the Indos and their shopping-lists (which they will be able to produce at election time in the hope of getting kudos from their electorates).
Latest reports indicate Bertie to resign tonight. Opposition parties reportedly alarmed as they wanted a lame duck in office till election. Unclear if govt is now saved.
Announcement likely before 9 if tonight.