EXCLUSIVE: Leslie defects to the Tories…
The Northern Irish Tories remain a shadow of their glory days when in 1992 Lawrence Kennedy took 32% of the North Down Westminister vote. Yet Slugger hears that tomorrow they will announce their latest Unionist defector, James Leslie. A former MLA, Leslie was dropped by the North Antrim Unionist Association: a somewhat short-sighted move, perhaps, since he was considered a highly talented junior minister with a solid local voter base. Their prefered candidate, James Curry, went on to lose Leslie’s seat to the DUP.
Widely regarded as one of their more able ministers, he served as David Trimble’s right hand man in the Office of First and Deputy First Minister. It is blow for Reg Empey, who must be concerned at the loss of such talent. And equally concerned at the possibility of further defections.
As for the Tories, well, Leslie’s not a sitting MLA but it’s certainly a significant rise on the last defection. This is a serious coup for the Conservatives.
We understand the Belfast Telegraph is carrying a fuller interview with Leslie tomorrow.
Yeah Julian ask yourself this – who will the Tories take more seriously, the DUP with their 9 MP’s or the North Down Tories with their supper club? I like the “we” refernce though – demonstrative of your delusions of grandure surely?
Bushmills
of course after the next general election DUP representation will be in double figures.
Very good Darth.
It seems to me that the prods are starting to split.
(I’ve checked myself for schadenfreude btw and think I’m ok.)
High church, low church, middle class, upper class, culturally British, and lowland farmer types. Urban rangers fans, lefties, lowlifes and hand-trowel upgraders.
UUP hegemony to UUP-DUP to DUP-UUP-Tory-fringe to…
Tories, leftylinkers, DUP and greens??
Pakman
Not necesarily true anymore. There is serious discussion going on in the Lib Dems aboiut which route to take post-election if it does produce a hung parliament. Some of the Lib Dems are not against a deal with Conservatives. Bear in mind also that a hung parliament will mean the Conservatives have actually whipped Labour in terms of % vote but that hasn’t translated into seats. Will the Lib Dems want to be seen as maintaining an unpopular Labour government? Plus they will not be dealing with a Thatcherite government.
A shift in politics is underway so don’t be surprised if it does happen.
All I can say is the Conservatives are pleased with progress to date and want to push ahead in order to gain a majority, even if it is only 1.
Of course, an awful lot can happen between now and 2010……
The Tories would be looking for, amongst other things, a *stable* coalition partner. I doubt the DUP would meet those criteria. For a full term of office, they would need a partner with more than 12 MPs too, so the Lib Dems are the only realistic option if they don’t want minority administration. Whether the Lib Dem electoral reform demand is real or not, is questionable.
Julian
Lembit Opik was quizzed on 5 Live about this on Monday afternoon. If (big if I know) his views are representative then I think a Tory/LibDem coalition at Westminster is unlikely. Don’t mistake the mood music coming from the coalition debate in Edinburgh as a desire for a UK wide understanding.
Bushmills
Don’t bother trying to insult us with silly comments. Water off a duck’s back.
Of course a party that needs a pact with some other party to form a government is going to look at what’s on offer. Peter Robinson sat up watching the last GB local election results come in and was a happy bunny as he saw the prospect of 9 (or more) DUP MPs being able to offer a deal to Cameron. And of course they are going to be keen to do that. And of course Cameron, if faced with the opportunity to become PM or do 5 more years in Opposition, is going to look at it.
All I’m really saying is that it is no longer a natural instinct to look for Unionist support – cos the UUP have none to offer and the DUP are a different kettle of fish entirely.
You also have to consider how keen the LIb Dems may or may not be to deal. If keen, the DUP do not matter.
Plus, by the way, Cameron will have to consider the price exacted by the DUP PLUS the effect on the GB electorate of being seen to cosy up to and pay a price to a party many in GB view as the Ulster Taliban. Before the retaliation comes in form the DUPers, think about the image you have in GB – it ain’t good. Is that a price Cameron will pay?? The DUP may think they are the big boys on the block here but they may not pull any scraps off the table despite that.
Face up to it, politics in the UK does not revolve round 6 county parties.
So, lay off with the silly insults about listening to North Down Supper Club. BTW, the Supper Club is a damn good fund raiser for the Party and I’ll not have a bad word said against it!!!
Back to the main point though, a lot can and will happen between now and 2010 so thinking of deals or influence is very premature
Bushmills
BTW, “We” refers to the Conservative Party. I am a member after all and I do represent the Party so surely no problem with using the the royal we – do you have a problem with this? I can’t see why it offends you so much.
Sorry if I offended you Julian by pointing out the glaringly obvious fact that the DUP with in excess of nine MP’s at during the next parliament will be in a better position to influence the Conservatives than enthusiatic amatuers such as yourself.
Defections to the NI Tories will be a news story when you can announce to the press that you have poached an MLA or an MP. Until that time, please desist in the attempts to portray the Tories as some sort of coming force in Ulster. Frankly they are not.
The DUP are totally unpalatable to Cameron’s Tories. Even the DUP know that. They are the political untouchable. The idea that they would have a hand in running the country, or propping up the government, is laughable.
There are many questions to be answered over the possibilities of coalition, but the DUP certainly won’t figure in the outcome.
No, the use of the word “we” was humurous to me because you seem to think that you are playing in the same league as Cameron and the boys, who sitting 5 or 6 shy of a parliamentary majority are going to give a flying f*ck what their members in Ulster think about the DUP.
10MPs , 12MPs. The probability of the Conservatives needing a partner of this size is pretty small. So we are talking of a low-probability event.
slug
I agree it is a low probability event, and I most certainly don’t believe any sort of strategy should be formulated from a Unionist perspective that depends upon it occuring, but the truth is that politicians will do *anything* to acquire/stay in office generally speaking.
No matter how “untochable” the DUP are, if relying upon their support is one, simpler, easier way of forming a Tory adminstration and becoming PM, do you seriously think the Tories would say “not thanks, let’s have another election”?
Blair was happy to receive DUP support on foundation hospitals and city academies after all….
Bushmills
Unfortunately there are not many MPs available to poach and, dare I say it, not that many we’d want!
I am not claiming we are going to overtake the DUP next week or anything like that. People like to write us off and we can demonstrate we are far from it. I think some find it uncomfortable that the Conservative Party Leadership supports the aim of growing the Party here – its wrecked a few comfortbale assumptions, just ask the UUP.
By the way, do you not find it ironic that if it comes to offering a deal the Party you will be offering a deal to is my Party, a national UK Party even though your Party may be stronger in these 6 counties of the UK? I do.
(I hope we’re not going to dominate this thread.)
Bushmills
“No, the use of the word “we” was humurous to me because you seem to think that you are playing in the same league as Cameron and the boys, who sitting 5 or 6 shy of a parliamentary majority are going to give a flying f*ck what their members in Ulster think about the DUP. ”
You haven’t got it yet. It’s not what I think of the DUP, it’s what the rest of the UK thinks. A pretty piss poor position for a party of the Union to be in don’t you think??
“No matter how “untochable” the DUP are, if relying upon their support is one, simpler, easier way of forming a Tory adminstration and becoming PM, do you seriously think the Tories would say “not thanks, let’s have another election”? ”
Cameron would fall flat on his face if he were forced to rely on the DUP. 1. He’d never get the backing from this party. 2. He’d be reticulated by all mainstream press. 3. The DUP would prove, very quickly, to be unreliable. 4. ~12 MPs isn’t enough to sustain a government in power for a whole term, and would help give way for a Labour government too soon.
Julian
I am well aware that it is the party you are a member of, but the truth is you will have no say whatsoever in the construction of such a deal.
Do you seriously expect us to believe that the Conservative Party is going to win a single assembly seat? If so where?
Steve
The entire argument I have made in terms of the Tories also applies to Labour. The Unionist population owe the Tory Party nothing.
“No matter how “untochable” the DUP are”
I don’t think they’re untouchable, they are more touchable than the Welsh or Scottish nats. Its just that they will have 2% of seats so unlikely to matter.
Now if PR were introduced in the UK, the DUP could expect to hold hte balance of power much more often.
Slug
DUP = British equivalent of the Free Democrats?
Think of the craic Paisley would have!
Julian
No poorer than the Conservative and Unionist Party claiming they wouldn’t designate themselves as Unionist in the assembly. What bright spark thought that one up?
Still no answer from the boul’ Julian about what seats the Ulster Tories are going to win?
Julian
“there are not many MPs available to poach and, dare I say it, not that many we’d want”
beggars & choosers!
What about MLAs? Out of the 108 are there any that catch your eye?
Steve
I agree that the DUP have an image problem but don’t overplay that. Every time I’m in Westminster I am struck about how the attitude to the DUP has changed. Especially from Tory MPs. Donaldson has been key in this.
Bushmills
“I am well aware that it is the party you are a member of, but the truth is you will have no say whatsoever in the construction of such a deal. ”
See my comment in No 15 above. Don’t delude yourself!
The fundamental difference between you and me seems to be I want to play my full part in the Union, you want to be half in but half out. If you are happy in your comfort zone of sectarian politics for ever and a day, have fun. Sectarian headcounts do not interest me.
I actually think Cameron will have a majority and even if he dosesnt he would sooner be a minority administration than do a deal with the DUP. After all what would the DUP do – vote down the Conservatives and help Labour back in?
Incidentially I dont think Bertie and the PDs will need any help either – leaving Gerry twisting in the wind (hopefully not metaphorically)
Pakman
Your comment re Donaldson has lot of truth in it. Many were also shocked when he switched and discounted him.
I also expect that whenever the DUP have a new Leader you may find the DUP approach and image changing. As I say, 2010 is a long way away.
Pakman
Of course the Conservatives are friendly to the DUP – they are pragmatists but politically they are miles apart.
DUP = undermining the Union
Bushmills
“Do you seriously expect us to believe that the Conservative Party is going to win a single assembly seat? If so where”
None, unless your Leader does a deal with Gerry and Martin cos there won’t be an Assembly.
Pakman
“What about MLAs? Out of the 108 are there any that catch your eye”
Can I think about that one? Any recommendations?
There is a new force on the right in Britain and America stemming from the coming together of Evangelical Protestants and rightwing Catholics. With the current Pope believing in taking a hard line and telling it like it is there is no chance of Cameron allowing himself or his party to be identified as friends of the DUP, and no advantage for them in helping to revive the UUP.
The Catholic church as an organisation has been very pro-Union at times even if certain members of it had other ideas. It would be interesting if the NI Conservatives felt able to comment on their relationships, if any with the Catholic Church now that the Orange card is unplayable.
Personally I believe that we are seeing the tide of anticlericalism in the South begin to recede, unfortunate as that may be.
Droll Julian, very droll, but you must have some expectations. Where? Strangford? North Down? Surely you don’t think Bowles can win a seat in South Down?
As for “sectarian head counts” – generally thats how people that lose election in Ulster describe them, so it’s no great surprise to hear you trotting out that old cliche.
I want to be in the Union, and I want my representatives to play their part in the Parliament of the said Union. No half-way house at all. Unlike you who ran for office on a manifesto committment not to designate yourself as a Unionist in the institution you were seeking election to. Half-way house approach from the Conservative and Unionist candidate for North Down indeed.
“Do you seriously expect us to believe that the Conservative Party is going to win a single assembly seat? If so where”
What Assembly election?
“I agree that the DUP have an image problem but don’t overplay that. Every time I’m in Westminster I am struck about how the attitude to the DUP has changed. Especially from Tory MPs. Donaldson has been key in this. ”
The Right wing fringe of the party have always had a soft sport for the rhetoric and unbending anti political correctness of the DUP. I know the ones you mean. Edward Leigh etc., will all love Donaldson (they like the Enoch Powell connection especially), but these Tories don’t represent the Conservative Party that may form a government.
Cameron is looking to a wide audience, and any deal with the DUP would blow his entire strategy into the water. A few select quotes from the “Good Doctor” would bring the house down.
Of course Julian, maybe if Ted Heath hadn’t forced the Unionists out of the party all those years ago, things would be mightily different today. But the truth is that while stories such as this might grab a few paragraphs in the Snooze Letter and will undoubtedly add to Reg’s headaches, it’s hardly a sign of a revival.
No old boy, I’m afraid an annual jolly to Bournemouth, Brighton or Blackpool is as near to power as the Ulster Tories will ever be.
Steve
Agreed. The Doc’s more “colourful” statements would be an embarrassment, but who said anything about a formal alliance? A voting arrangement would be quite sufficient.
Bushmills
You are going to have to drop this idea of me claiming an overnight conversion to the Conservative Party. I haven’t claimed it and I’m not going to start now. But I will still proclaim successes along the way.
Long term success will be hard and will take time but we work away, exactly as my colleagues do in LIverpool, Glasgow etc.
As a Unionist, do you not find it strange to be so against political parties of that same Union taking part in elections? Separation of politics is another chink in the Union itself.
“As for “sectarian head counts” – generally thats how people that lose election in Ulster describe them, so it’s no great surprise to hear you trotting out that old cliche. ”
Sorry, other way round. It suits you to keep things the way they are. If Northern Ieland is to survive then we need to move away from this stuff. But who is trying to keep it this way? Oh yes, you.
Bushmills (I went to school there!),
They’d need more than a casual agreement if Cameron (or Brown) needed to sustain a government for four or five years.
Oh and another thought – Paisley won’t be the MP for North Antrim forever. One more term at most, I would say.
Remove the “Bogey-man” from the equation and just what would their be for opponents of the arrangment to carp about?
Could someone explain to me what valid reason or rationale remains for the existence of the UUP? If you want Union then the Conservatives would seem a logical route. If the Bible and the Orange Order are your poison well then there is the DUP. If you are an MP or MLA with left wing and Unionist tendencies well then you are well screwed by the discriminatory attitude of the Labour Party, but if your tendencies are conservative then surely that party is potentially a much stronger option. What point is there in the UUP; sentimental perhaps?
Julian
I have absolutely no objection whatsoever to the Tories contesting elections in Northern Ireland. I actually transfer my vote to them (when they bother to run up here) ahead of the UUP. What I am asking is where you think the Tories are going to make a break-through in Northern Ireland. Your singular failure to address directly the question put to you, implies to me that you don’t think they will.
Perhaps you could also answer the question as to why you, such a great man of the Union and all that, ran on a manifesto which stated that you wouldn’t designate as a Unionist if elected to Stormont?
Steve
my experience is far wider than Mr Leigh et al. Perhaps you should take a longer view; as Julian correctly points out 2010 is a long way away.
Cornerstone group = DUP England branch?
For what it’s worth, I can see the Conservatives in NI fulfilling the role of UKIP in GB in 2001 and 2005- that is to harvest enough UUP votes in any Asembly election to cost them some seats without ever being near to winning one themselves.
Crucially the defections to the NI Cons recently- and in the future, because there will be more-are professional, male, educated. In other words,exactly the people Trimble’s New Unionism was supposedly going to reactivate from three decades of political dormancy (is that a word?.) So the whole internal raison d’etre of Project Trimble is now crumbling, long after the external constitutional justifications fell apart.
Crataegus
I think that is a question beginning to exercise the minds of a few people.
A coupel of facypors to consider: the UUP is a broad church from Labour leaning Sylvia to right wing Burnside. If we ever get to the situation of having to actually define ideologies and policies to implement in government there may be a strain within the UUP. For what holds them together
except their stance on the Union? (Ref Dermot Nesbit when Assembly started the first time)
Secondly, if we Conservatives can gradually pick up success, the question becomes more and more relevant.
At the very least the UUP need a visionary leader to define a role, rather like we have needed one since Labour stuffed us.
“…a party many in GB view as the Ulster Taliban”
No mention of Sinn Fein then? lol
Crataegus,
The Catholic church has always been very aware that there are a lot more Catholics in Britain than there are in Ireland. Contrary to most unionist opinion the Catholic church as an organisation has always been antirepublican, particularly anti Irish republican, for all sorts of reasons.
From a republican viewpoint this looks like yet another attempt to put an acceptable face on unionism so that it can attract Catholic voters but it would be interesting to know where Julian stands. I could be over simplifying something more laudable.
It is already clear that no unionist from the UUP or DUP has any interest in attracting cross-community votes, probably because of previous sectarian scandals in those parties.
Bushmills
Ask your question as much as you like …if you think I’m going to be so silly as to reel off a list and be a hostage to fortune…..
BTW, you and the UUP are reduced to bellowing about who is the better unionist. That is to be expected as you have to create an enemy to stand and rail against. Of course, we are attacked as being soft on the Union which always makes me laugh. After all we are the only (apart from the Greens) UK wide party to organise and stand in election here. Note the use of term “UK wide”
You trying to paint me as the nationalist wing of the Tory Party??? Perhaps the green in our new logo offends you. That last was a joke by the way.
If so taliban-like why have there been so many DUP members invited to speak at conservative conferences as of late?
Obviously the great Andrew Hunter, former member of parliament, doesn’t share your somewhat extreme analysis.
Upper Falls
I’m having enough trouble with Bushmills without starting another row!!
” ran on a manifesto which stated that you wouldn’t designate as a Unionist if elected to Stormont? ”
I think that was a good move by the Tories. It said they’re opposed to the system of designation and the tribal political system that perpetuates. The Conservative party believes in the Union but does not believe in Orange v Green politics. Instead, they are broader than that.