Fianna Fail eyeing Northern Ireland…
Here’s a thing. Former SDLP Mayor of Belfast Martin Morgan and an ex vice chair Eddie Espie are talking to the Dún Laoghaire Fianna Fáil tomorrow night as part of a discussion of the party’s future role in Northern Ireland. There was some considerable speculation on the possibility of Fianna Fail moving north, just prior to a better than expected SDLP performance in the last Westminster election. It’s thought that there are up to about 100 private members already in Northern Ireland. Is this just a toe in the waters? Or is the party considering establishing a 32 county presence? And, indeed, are Martin and Eddie to be the first Northern Irish FF converts?
There is no ‘threat’ from FF. They’ll be lucky not to get their balls handed to them at the next election never mind try to ingratiate themselves to a profoundly sceptical and quite possibly antagonistic northern audience.
Harry
What are the poll numbers like? I always thought Fianna Fail underperformed in polls (like the Tories) only to do better on the day?
Will FF not chuck the PD’s and form a government with Labour next time? Surely you don’t think Enda is going to be the next Taoiseach?
Pat McL:
>Before the FFers decided to formally organise in
>this part of Ireland they would have to
>ascertain who exactly they would be tergetting
>as potential converts.
Nervous Pat?
“the SDLP are a busted flush”
Not by a long way. In most of NI, particularly west of the Bann they are the principle opposition. Disillusioned unionists have nowhere else to go if they want to keep Sinn Fein from a clean sweep and they most assuredly do.
There’ll be enough hardline unionists for the DUP to hang on but the UUP will be squeezed out as Alliance has already been.
“Personal taxation is swings and roundabouts, and much the same. I had figures for this somewhere else but have lost them.”
http://www.forfas.ie/ncc/reports/ncc_annual_05/ch04/ch04_01.html#fn9
Lowest direct, among the lowest including indirect. The high tax status has been a myth for nearly a decade now.
lib
Perhaps. But in the west (with the notable exception of Foyle where they are in the majority), where are the SDLP the main opposition? Where have they a serious organisation that can take the fight to Sinn Fein and even hope to prevail?
FST – Tommy Gallagher will hold on because he has a strong personal vote of around 7,000.
Mid Ulster – Haughey losing his seat was a disastrous result, Burns is not in the same league and is a poor imitation.
West Tyrone – Again a personal vote keeps Eugene where he is, but if he wasn’t on the ballot, the Sinn Feiners would be within a shout of four seats.
East Londonderry – The only constituency where the SDLP have played a clever game – Dallat is so “green” that he prevents votes peeling away to a greater degree than they have elsewhere. Remove Dallat and they are finished.
PS. In multi-member seats/elections, Unionists will vote for Unionists, they might transfer to the SDLP at later stages in the hope of keeping the Shinners out, but they will continue to vote for Unionist candidates in Westminster polls (again with the exception of Foyle).
Some real news: Haughey “about to die”, according to sources in FF. Won’t last 24 hours, apparently.
Briso,
I have nothing to be nervous about.
Southerner
I am sad at this news. Whatever else people say about him, I always admired the sheer dogged determination of Haughey and his survivability, if there is such a word. A rogue, yes, but a likeable rogue in many ways!
Loyalist,
in the short term the SDLP will find it tough going but the McCartney scandal scared a lot of the younger generation off, the very people who don’t remember the IRA at war. Sinn Fein (like Fianna Fail, strangely enough!) has just too many committed enemies.
I do agree that for the foreseeable future Sinn Fein will have the MP’s but that’s not so important for nationalists. If the SDLP can produce personable young candidates prepared to do the drudgery at local level they are still in the race though it will take a few years for them to build credibility.
“What are the poll numbers like? I always thought Fianna Fail underperformed in polls (like the Tories) only to do better on the day?
Will FF not chuck the PD’s and form a government with Labour next time? Surely you don’t think Enda is going to be the next Taoiseach?”
No actually the opposite has historically been the case. FF has historically been over-represented in the polls and performed worse on election day. For example some polls during the FG-Lab govt had FF on 51% but they only got 39.5% in the 1997 General Election. FG on the other hand has nearly always been under-represented in polls. They were around 24-5% in the polls before the local elections in 2004, but got 28%. The polling companies think they might have taken measures to counter these over/under-representations now. The ICM poll in 2002 was very accurate in predicting how people would actually vote. Red C are sortof a spin-off from ICM and say their polls are more accurate as they ask people over the phone rather than face-to-face.
Yes unfortunately I do expect Enda will probably be the next Taoiseach. Remember this govt was the first in 40 years to win a second term. The Irish electorate seems to get bored with the “same old people” easier than the British electorate, or maybe our electoral system just makes re-election extremely difficult. For example, had the British general election in 05 been conducted under the Irish electoral system PR-STV, then Blair could not have formed a govt on his own and would have needed the Lib Dems.
I wonder who the close fiend and advisor to Denis Haughey is, Eddie?
I pity FF anyone who on their website has their motto “its not the winning but the taking part thats important” seriously has issues. Drink from the poisoned challace anyone?
Brian
What implications, if any, will Enda being Taisoeach have for Northern Ireland?
Loyalist makes a number of rubbish points.
Mid-Ulster haughey did not lose his seat he was replaced by a younger model in Patsy McGlone an ex advisor to Hume. His points are all those of opinion not of fact.
Some people just cant stand that the SDLP have held there own. Lets get real on this. SF wanna talk about mandates, the SDLP have a strong mandate, DEAL WITH IT.
We are not going away you know and with the work going on, on the ground such as in my own constituency of Mid-Ulster where on a daily basis i hear complaints from constituents about SF, such as their rubbish representatives on Magherafelt council, there are many more shocks in store such as the 2005 election.
all
What was shocking about the 2005 election? The SDLP vote was down. The number of council seats was down. The only thing that took the bad look of the result was that where the SDLP had a bad day, the Ulster Unionists had a totally appalling one, and even then they managed to outpoll you. 2005 represented a stay of execution, not a recovery for the SDLP.
‘in the short term the SDLP will find it tough going but the McCartney scandal scared a lot of the younger generation off, the very people who don’t remember the IRA at war.’
Is there any evidence, anecdotal or othwerwise to support that assertion?
BB, historically FF strength is always under-represented in polls, one factor behind this is that there tends to be a late swing to the government during election campaigns and more often than not FF are in government.
FF support is currently only about 2% behind where they were at the same phase in the polls in the last Dail (one year away from the election).
Having said that I think that I am picking up a vibe of “time for a change” in public opinion and with inflation and interest rate increases likely to offset the goodwill coming from the SSIAs, its still far to early to call the next election. The alternative government needs to be doing far better than it currently is, if they hope to take power.
Keith
Most Fine Gaelers I am talking to would be delighted if they got 45 seats. That isn’t going to be enough, is it?
“What implications, if any, will Enda being Taisoeach have for Northern Ireland?”
FG is seen by many Irish voters as being less sympathetic to Northern Nationalism than Fianna Fail. Mary Banotti, FG’s candidate in the 1997 Presidential Election, referred to Mary McAleese as “an outsider”. John Bruton, the last FG Taoiseach late 94-7, was reportedly described by a Tory as ‘more of a Unionist than I am’. He described a meeting with Prince Charles as the greatest day of his life (very embarrassing). Colm McEochaidh of FG called on Irish people to renounce the aspiration of a United Ireland on the Marion Finucane show on RTE Radio 1 some months ago.
What we have to go on so far about how Enda would compare to his predecessors is that he will probably take a hard line on SF, likely more so than Bertie imho. Beyond that it’s unclear.
Brian
I always thought Bruton was an abherration in the long line of Taisogh (I think that’s the plural for Irish PM’s!) who can trace their ideological beliefs back to the Civil War. His roots lay more within the Irish Parliamentary Party tradition. Would Kenny be similar?
“BB, historically FF strength is always under-represented in polls, one factor behind this is that there tends to be a late swing to the government during election campaigns and more often than not FF are in government.”
Will be interesting to see how the Mr.A affair will affect public-opinion. FF are already in the 31%-35% range in the polls and the 31% (MRBI poll) is I understand the lowest they have ever scored. If that did happen next year it would be the worst GE result since their first in 1927 the year the party was formed.
Keith M I am curious as to your source for these peculiar claims that FF tends to be under-estimated in the polls. I have always heard that said about FG but never about FF in the Irish media. Things were already bad enough before Mr.A but this is likely to preclude any recovery in the short-term – and we only have a year to go. Might I remind you that 2002 was the first time a FF-led govt has been re-elected since the 60′s. Before then you might have a point but those were very different times when Civil War politics still dominated the State and political parties were thinner on the ground than they are now. We have possibly the most diverse Dail in our history. FF has lost around 25% of its vote and the main beneficiaries are SF. Winning back some of those voters imho is the key to any chance they might have of regaining power. And I don’t think they can do it.
Only De Valera was able to win more than 10 years as Taoiseach and I wouldn’t go as far as to call Bertie a De Valera.
“(I think that’s the plural for Irish PM’s!”
Taoisigh
(pronounced teeshe)
I predict at least 55 seats for FG, based on their 1997 performance of 27%.
“I always thought Bruton was an abherration in the long line of Taisogh (I think that’s the plural for Irish PM’s!) who can trace their ideological beliefs back to the Civil War. His roots lay more within the Irish Parliamentary Party tradition. Would Kenny be similar?”
Kenny isn’t that clear on NI except from attacking SF.
Brian
Well, you can’t expect a Loyalist to be versed in such matters!
;-0
Brian
“attacking Sinn Fein”
Yes. But what I am attempting to establish is whether or not his laying the boot into the Sinn Feiners is motivated out of a general disdain for petty northern nationalism, or out of a love for the SDLP.
Most Fine Gaelers I am talking to would be delighted if they got 45 seats. That isn’t going to be enough, is it?
Nowhere near enough. Labour seem to have flatlined on 11-13% and are expected to return around 21 seats, 25 on a good day. The Rainbow needs 84. If the Greens come back with 7, FG need at least 52.
It’s not impossible as 2002 was a particularly terrible election for FG. They had 54 seats going into that one. Their best-ever result in modern times was the Nov 82 election, 70 seats.
It will require a major swing towards FG and away from FF though. At the moment the mood of the electorate is “ready for a change, but unconvinced by the opposition”. If EndA Kenny doesn’t land a few good blows on Bertie by Autumn, he might manage the feat of losing an election against a widely-despised Government by appearing even worse.
Loyalist,
Several loyalists speak Irish that they learnt in gaol.
No Ciaran Labour are on 15% in the latest polls.
Garibaldy
Really? I am surprised. Because any true Loyalist believes in the rule of law and shouldn’t ever have been in jail.
“Yes. But what I am attempting to establish is whether or not his laying the boot into the Sinn Feiners is motivated out of a general disdain for petty northern nationalism, or out of a love for the SDLP.”
Unclear to me too Loyalist but I think we could expect the North to be less of a priority.
Declan,
“and of course the biggie, the reason that could cause many nationalists (never mind unionists) to vote against reunification: The lack of the NHS.”
This may surprise you but the waiting lists for surgical procedures are much, much shorter down south and, at the moment, the Irish Republic is spending 1,000 euros a year more per person on health than north of the border. Watch this space.
On Enda Kenny:
I know people want a change but I just can’t see Enda Kenny being Taoiseach. This guy doesn’t even appear to understand the constitution never mind how to run a country.
On Fianna Fail’s ideology:
very simple, their ideology is the ideology of the Irish people. They are are the self-confessed chameleons of politics. Whatever you are and want, they are and will deliver. You want houses? You got houses.
FF will set up in the north if it’s in their interests, and only then.
Loyalist,
The rule of law like the Drumcree protests or the riots in September which both main unionist parties blamed on the police no doubt.
Too many people here who like to talk about law and order are perfectly happy to ignore the rule of law when it suits them. Hence my surprise at the whole yapping about Empey’s latest move.
Brian:FF has lost around 25% of its vote and the main beneficiaries are SF. Winning back some of those voters imho is the key to any chance they might have of regaining power. And I don’t think they can do it.
Just to crunch the numbers since 2002, and assuming the latest MRBI poll was accurate:
Assuming the poll is accurate of course. But still, FG are clearly the major beneficiaries of the fall in FF/PD support. Interesting that both FF and the PDs are down about 25% each.
Oh, and Labour got 15% in the MRBI poll, but in all the recent RedC polls have been firmly stuck on 11% for months now. We’ll have to wait for the next poll to see if the MRBI one was a blip or a real rise in support for Labour.
If a merger does go ahead, either with Fianna Fail or Labour, then the strategists will need to draft a radical merger which can restore confidence in the SDLP again.
In my view, either party can achieve this by parachuting an SDLP member into the Seanad, so as to serve as an Irish Minister in the next government. Indeed, according to Bunreacht na hÉireann, the Taoiseach is entitled to appoint two ministers who are members of the Seanad, and there are precedents in the history of the Irish state for appointments of this nature – in 1957 and in 1981. If the merger did go ahead, then this would be an altruistic way to unleash a new lease of life in the SDLP again. I doubt very much that it would happen, however, because neither Labour or Fianna Fail are known for their altruism.
Okay Ciarán but commentators have said that most of the SF vote is former FF aged 25-35. Perhaps former even preceding 2002. I stand by my argument that the key to FF’s re-election lies with clawing back some of those.
Brian: I crunched the numbers just there now because I was curious meself as to exactly where the support was going. “Everybody knows” the FF vote is bleeding away to SF. Don’t they? But the numbers say different. I love when that happens, keeps us all on our toes
“Everbody knows” that 25-35 year olds tend not to bother voting as well, so they can’t be all that important.
I’m a born cynical contrarian, and I can’t shake the nagging feeling that we were treated to two years of hysteria about The Rise Of SF by the commentariat, and all of a sudden the hysteria has tailed away and SF’s support magically drops back by 3%. Maybe it was all just smoke? Maybe the commentariat are just making stuff up.
Ciaran
I agree
SFs vote is partly a protest vote, partly it appeals to a certain section of the electorate, but some will have come from FF, and some from Labour, and doubtless there are a few former Green and FG voters in the mix. Their work on the ground helps consolidate that vote, but for them to move much beyond where they are would take something dramatic. I can’t see it under current leadership and circumstance. Indeed with the passing of time Jerry’s beard is getting greyer and I don’t see possible replacements who have the same standing. They are becoming tired; last years story.
“SFs vote is partly a protest vote, partly it appeals to a certain section of the electorate, but some will have come from FF, and some from Labour, and doubtless there are a few former Green and FG voters in the mix.”
I doubt the latter because FG voters are probably the most anti-SF because of FG history.
“Keith M I am curious as to your source for these peculiar claims that FF tends to be under-estimated in the polls. I have always heard that said about FG but never about FF in the Irish media.”
Check the the next IT poll. They tend to massage the raw data adding to the FF actual numbers to compensate for the fact that they always tend to be under represented in opinion polls.
FG tend to be relativly accurate, although in 2002, very few polls had the losing as big a share as they lost on the day.
FG need to be on 60 seats or more after the next election to give the alternative coalition any chance. They’re not going to get that until they exceed 30% in the polls.
“FG need to be on 60 seats or more after the next election to give the alternative coalition any chance. They’re not going to get that until they exceed 30% in the polls.”
I don’t agree with that. Labour have a fair chance of getting at least 25 seats. Suppose FG gets 55. That’s 80 seats. Then add the Greens even on their current 6 seats and you have a 2 seat majority. And that’s assuming the Greens don’t increase their vote. Remember they scored 6 seats last time (1 more than SF) on only 3.9% of the vote. They have scored well in recent polls 5%-7% so I think they will get more TD’s. Both parties seem open – especially leftwing fellow-travellers Labour – to Green participation in govt.
The fact that 30% isn’t necessary is shown by how the average FG vote since 1933 has been around 27% but they have served in govt in 1948-51, 54-7, 73-77, 82-87 and 94-7. Can I also remind you that FF actually scored around 32% in the local and European elections in 04, so it is a real prospect that it could happen next yr too.
And after the Mr.A affair who knows there’s even some talk that FG may displace FF as the biggest party which has never happened before.
eddie espie is a political chameleon first he was far left working for hard left labour mp and then he was with the sticks he joined the sdlp and because he didnt get his ego a hes now going to join a right of centre partyeven though he tried to make himself a couple of months agothe heir to gerry fitts legacy now hes joining the party tht fitt despised .
As for morgan he couldnt even win an election against an android
I don’t think FF are “right of centre”. It has a strong Social Democratic wing. It is a centrist party, forced to adopt centre-right economics by its coalition-partner the PD’s. Just like FG will have to adopt leftwing policies by Labour and possibly the Greens, in spite of its strong conservative wing.
“the Irish Republic is spending 1,000 euros a year more per person on health than north of the border”
Is that state contribution or total expenditure?
Still, i agree its impressive.
As for the tax issue, looks like I was wrong. The gap between rich and poor is still growing (as it is in UK) maybe those business taxes could shift a bit to live some people out of poverty?
I would love to see what a unionist bloc would do to politics post reunification. What would a combined bloc have? 15% of the vote? more?
And where would northern nationalists transfer their loyalties to? I think SF vote would actually drop.
BB “And after the Mr.A affair who knows there’s even some talk that FG may displace FF as the biggest party which has never happened before.”
Talk by whom exactly, some blue rinse old ladies with one too many sweet sherries? Seriously, the “Mr.A.” case may have got people talking, but its last week’s news and will be all but forgotten in a year’s time. Talking to people it has impacted more on the judiciary than it has on politicians (of all colours).
“the Irish Republic is spending 1,000 euros a year more per person on health than north of the border”. How much of this is being spent on buying care from the U.K.’s Health Service? This may bring down waiting lists in the short-term, but we are still getting very poor value for our money when it comes to health care in this country.
“Labour have a fair chance of getting at least 25 seats.” Even Labour people I’m talking to regularly would be astonished with this based on where they are right now.. The phase I keep hearing from then is “should get 20″.
“Suppose FG gets 55.” Possible but very unlikely, 50 seems to be their upper limit unless they get a repeat of 2004.
“Then add the Greens…” I was talking about the two alternatives currently on offer. The Greens are a wildcard and are as likely to stay out of coalition than go in with either grouping. FG TDs (especially the rural ones) would be loath to bring the Greens in, unless they are desperate.
“The fact that 30% isn’t necessary is shown by how the average FG vote since 1933 has been around 27% but they have served in govt in 1948-51, 54-7, 73-77, 82-87 and 94-7.”
In the 1940′s and 50′s FG had the staunchly anti-FF Clann NaPoblachta to give them and Labour a lift. There is no party like that around today.
The political landscape is unrecogniseable compared with the 70′s. In those days there were three parties in the Dail and the odd independent. Every time they went into government they were over 35%.
In 1994 they only made it into government after a scandal and some bi-elections, again not an example that holds up today.
“Can I also remind you that FF actually scored around 32% in the local and European elections in 04, so it is a real prospect that it could happen next yr too. ”
Mid-term elections are always a chance for the electorate to let off steam. When they have to elect a government, people tend to play it safe unless the current government have made major errors (and there’s no evidence of that) or there’s a feeling that we need a change. We’re still too far out to make a call on this.
Brian
I have seen transfers from the DUP to SF!! So there are always a few who don’t fit the expected pattern.
Brian
I think you are being overly optimistic of FG’s chances and I don’t see Labour anywhere near 25.
The big problem for the Rainbow is that the gains each party make are as likely to be off one of the other possible coalition parties as they are of FF or the PD’s. Also the election is a year away and FF will rally or at least they will do their dandiest.
Possible the biggest risk to FF is not the opposition but the possibility of rising interest rates. With high mortgages and a low % interest starting point it doesn’t take many .0025% increases to cause pain.