Bertie tightens grip on poll lead?
Looks like the big budget giveaway in the Republic has paid off for Bertie. Fianna Fail’s rating goes up by three per cent and Ahern is now the most popular political leader. Sinn Fein drops one per cent, bringing it to 9%. The party’s core vote sits now at 7%, which is marginally above the 6.5% it achieved in the general election of 2002. If there’s a silver lining it is the continued popularity of Gerry Adams, up 1% to 40% satisfaction rating, which may indicate that more people may be willing to transfer to SF further down the ballot than previously.
Tags: Republic
I’ll just add my tuppence worth here to this thread.
The last MRBI poll before the 2002 General Election got SF’s support on the button to within 0.2% for example. The polls were also accurate for the 2004 European Elections and as such there is no evidence of underestimation of SF support.
The talk about the Green Party making gains is ridiculous. There are 2 constituencies where they have a realistic, though slim chance of a gain: Galway West and Carlow-Kilkenny and I doubt they will win either. Louth is a constituency where they could surprise and poll well but not enough to win a seat. At least 4 and likely 5 of their sitting TDs are under pressure, they could increase their share of the vote over 2002 and return with less seats. The seats in Dún Laoghaire, Dublin South, Dublin South East and Cork South Central are all shaky with FG running a real election campaign this time out. Dublin Mid West is also shaky despite the extra seat. All these TDs received a very large SF transfer in 2002. Sargent could return on his own given that 2 of the TDs in Dublin North are retiring.
As for Labour people forget the impact that retirements will have on their seat haul. Kerry South seat lost to FG and Cork East likely lost to FG. In Dublin West it is highly likely that their seat is lost to FG, a cllr in Castleknock polled over 5,000 votes in 2004 in one ward. As for seats they lost the last time, Kerry North has no prospect of a Labour resurgance, neither has Louth as the Drogheda vote declined again in 2004. They may struggle to hold the Dublin North seat as they have selected the retiring TDs brother instead of one of 4 county cllrs. Their only prospects of a gain are in Dún Laoghaire, Meath East and Dublin Mid West.
FG canot fail to gain seats but while they have a lot of young new cllrs since 2004 one has to question the candidate strategy thus far. There are persistent rumours that TDs defeated in 2002, including many who did not contest the 2004 locals, want to run again ahead of these young bloods. Alan Shatter has already been selected others include Seán Barrett, Charlie Flanagan, Gerry Reynolds, Nora Owen and Frances Fitzgerald. Almost all of their MEPs will be running meaning that if elected cllrs will be sent to Strasbourg as their subs likely leading to these seats being marginal in 2009. Kenny has made FG think they can win again but when the FF press office get going about the differences between the various coalition partners and the absence of policies they will be damaged.
As for FF the party will lose seats but not a bag load. The last 2 elections have shown the party is more transfer friendly than ever as inter-party loyalty declines further. I find it hard to see any scenario where FF return with less than 70 seats. Good candidate selection in many areas will result in holds because FF is defending so many it is hard for the party to make gains though there are chances in Kerry South and Galway West.
SF will also gain seats, they can’t fail to on current poll figures. Most likely include Dublin Central, Dublin North West and one of the 2 Donegal constituencies. They have a shot in Wexford and in Waterford and in Dublin North East. The prospects of a Meath gain are gone with the boundary revision as are Sligo-Leitrim. I think Wexford is more likely a gain though their candidate Dwyer didn’t have a great day in the local elections and was outpolled by a FF cllr who has been selected to contest the next election. He is confined to a wheelchair so likely to garner something of a sympathy vote as well. The Workers Party may cost SF the seat. Their transfer will be crucial and their candidate outpolled the SF candidate in the 2004 locals as well.
I think any prospects of gains outside of these are very slim and remote especially as SF will be unable to benefit from future decomissioning exercises. There is a ceiling for radical anti-govt parties in the Republic. 10% was reached by Clann na Poblachta, Workers Party and Clann na Talmhan and they couldn’t break out of it. Their desire to enter govt is different depending on who you talk to and whether they came from FF or Labour.
TheGeneral
Couldn’t disagree with most of that.
Greens putting in a strong showing in Louth surprises me, can’t see then taking Galway West either, but think this time Carlow Kilkenny a strong possibility. Not all their TD’s will return, but they will probably do better than you think, though Dublin South and Dun Laoghaire are capricious constituencies. I would have thought that their best strategy would probably be consolidate and try to gain one or two, but with them who knows.
How do you think the PDs will fair? Galway West, Longford West Meath and perhaps even Limerick East must be possible losses.
FF will form the next government unless they do something truly horrendous.
“As for FF the party will lose seats but not a bag load. The last 2 elections have shown the party is more transfer friendly than ever as inter-party loyalty declines further. I find it hard to see any scenario where FF return with less than 70 seats. Good candidate selection in many areas will result in holds because FF is defending so many it is hard for the party to make gains though there are chances in Kerry South and Galway West.”
Opinion polls consistently over-rate FF’s real levels of support, and under-rate FG’s. FG got 28% in the local/euro elections compared to 24% in the polls beforehand. FF certainly won’t have the overall majority they came within 2 seats of getting last time. Also the PD’s will definitely lose Longford-Roscommon where Mae Sexton only got in due to 60% of FG transfers going her way. A number of PD TDs got in last time on the transfers from Opposition supporters intent on prevented FF majority-rule. Also Labour and FG did not have a transfer pact, unlike on this occasion. 54% in the polls say they are dissatisfied with the Government’s performance, and that the health-service and rip-off Ireland will be the main issues they vote on – not the economy.
I think many of us are bored with the same old faces.
The PDs did well witha late campagin against a single party Fianna Fail government in 02.
This time they could frame the choice as being between themselves or Labour in government with FF. This could shift soft FG votes and make it a bad day for Enda.
General
Strong analysis but I would question this
There is a ceiling for radical anti-govt parties in the Republic.
Not some much the concept but the 10% figure. I would put it nearer 20%.
As you note Sinn Fein are on almost 10% already but don’t forget Seamus Healy Tony Gregory Finian McGrath and Joe Higgins. The vote is there but it has to be brought in with hard work.
The lesson in my view is that a party has to put down roots after the initial excitement wears off. Most of them implode when that time comes. I’m backing Sinn Fein to see it through. Not for the first time they will learn from other peoples mistakes.
By contrast the PDs never did the groundwork and will at some stage have a bad election which will get rid of them. The can’t be lucky all the time.
Any chance?